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Old 09-25-2018, 03:53 PM   #12776
ILOVEPOKER929
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

The FG decision on 4th and inches was atrocious. We don't need to hide from that. The good news is most coaches are making the same terrible decisions in these spots so not much edge is lost on this front.

Incidentally, college coaches are WAY worse on these decisions given how shaky college kickers, snappers, holders, the OL, are. For a college coach the decision matrix often comes down to "Do I wanna go for it or miss a FG instead?" Sadly most coaches are still firmly in the "missed FG" camp. It's yet another reason why I will not feel that bad when the human species goes extinct.
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Old 09-26-2018, 08:12 AM   #12777
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Originally Posted by allinontheturn View Post
I know the rebuttal to this is probably some version of "det v ne is not 'league average'" - Must expect to have to score a lot to beat NE - etc etc.

But Expected Points (EP) for a first down on the 20 yard line is ~3.5. Assume a kicker hits a 40 yarder 90% of the time the FG is 2.7. Break even can be estimated,

2.7 = 3.5x
x = .77

If you convert > .77 going for a conversion is + EP and < .77 going is - EP. There are a lot of confounding factors like if they get a first down all the way down to the 10 etc, but back of the envelope I don't think a kick there is bad.

EP Source


The math is clearly in favor of going for it. Just sneak over the LG/C gap.

Kicking FG there was a clear mistake. Regardless of the game outcome.
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Old 09-26-2018, 10:54 AM   #12778
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Just sneak over the LG/C gap.
Hi, you must be new to Detroit Lions football. Welcome to the thread
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Old 09-26-2018, 11:37 AM   #12779
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Here is a great example of a flawed 4th down analysis. It gets too in the weeds by thinking too hard about the EP of your opponents starting field position.

Their argument if I can summarize is:

EP(going) = EP(convert) - EP(fail)
EP(fieldgoal) = EP(fg_good) - EP(ensuing_kickoff) - EP(fg_missed)

And the rule is if EP(going) > EP(fieldgoal) then go for it.

BUT what they miss is that EP(going) ≠ EP(convert) - EP(fail) because all of those EP(convert) situations are going to result in situations where your opponent will subsequently receive the ball. Because it's a terminal play for the drive they account for this in the EP(fieldgoal) = EP(fg_good) - EP(ensuing_kickoff) - EP(fg_missed). To make the analysis comparable they need something like:

EP(going) = EP(convert) - EP(ensuing_possession_successful_conversion) - EP(fail)
EP(fieldgoal) = EP(fg_good) - EP(ensuing_kickoff) - EP(fg_missed)

where EP(ensuing_possession_successful_conversion) = βEP(ensuing_kickoff) + (1-β)EP(expected_fieldposition), β, odds of scoring drive ---- or some garbage like that.

imho unless you're getting paid for the analysis just cancel all that subsequent possession **** out of each side of the equation to come up with a rough equilibrium like I did. It's at worst a marginally bad decision to go for the FG there and probably correct, imho.
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Old 09-26-2018, 11:43 AM   #12780
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Itís actually a terrible decision to kick the FG there vs the patriots led by tom Brady. Just because we won at the Pats ended up a garbage fire doesnít mean it was the right call.
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Old 09-26-2018, 11:49 AM   #12781
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Itís actually a terrible decision to kick the FG there vs the patriots led by tom Brady.


Spoiler:
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Old 09-30-2018, 04:35 PM   #12782
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Need that paper bag now


Sweet punt from the opponent 40 dick sauce, no balls coach.
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Old 10-01-2018, 09:07 AM   #12783
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Let myself believe for 1 game, happily back to season being over.
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:59 PM   #12784
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

We knew the D-Line was bad, they didn't really improve it at all, their best d-lineman got hurt, and this is the very expected result. The red-zone offense is also terrible, and that's on Jim-Bob. They can move the ball between the 20s as well as any team in the league, but given a short field, they just can't get it done. IMO a team should have at least 30 or 40 unique plays designed to punch it in from inside the 10. I just don't see that from this team, or the plays they do have just aren't working. While all the articles are generally blaming the defense for this loss, they are performing at their talent level.

This was a piece meal D put together with a lot of spare parts from other teams, with a huge weakness right up front. They are actually doing a decent job in coverage and in the pass rush, but their huge weakness is stopping the run. The Dallas O-Line was opening up half the field for Zeke to run free on. We knew going into the year this was going to be a bottom half run defense. There is not a coach on earth that could make them a top half run D.

But they don't need to be a top half run D. This offense, with all the money spent, and all the weapons, should be a top 5. And if the redzone conversions were there, they would be. That is really what I want to see from this team. The defense is who they are, they aren't getting better this year. But the offense only converting on 30% of their redzone attempts is horrendous. That **** needs to get fixed, and yesterday. It's great that Stafford has been his best under Cooter, but he needs to learn how to get them in the endzone or this team is going nowhere.
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Old 10-02-2018, 01:16 AM   #12785
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Originally Posted by Koss View Post
We knew the D-Line was bad, they didn't really improve it at all, their best d-lineman got hurt, and this is the very expected result. The red-zone offense is also terrible, and that's on Jim-Bob. They can move the ball between the 20s as well as any team in the league, but given a short field, they just can't get it done. IMO a team should have at least 30 or 40 unique plays designed to punch it in from inside the 10. I just don't see that from this team, or the plays they do have just aren't working. While all the articles are generally blaming the defense for this loss, they are performing at their talent level.

This was a piece meal D put together with a lot of spare parts from other teams, with a huge weakness right up front. They are actually doing a decent job in coverage and in the pass rush, but their huge weakness is stopping the run. The Dallas O-Line was opening up half the field for Zeke to run free on. We knew going into the year this was going to be a bottom half run defense. There is not a coach on earth that could make them a top half run D.

But they don't need to be a top half run D. This offense, with all the money spent, and all the weapons, should be a top 5. And if the redzone conversions were there, they would be. That is really what I want to see from this team. The defense is who they are, they aren't getting better this year. But the offense only converting on 30% of their redzone attempts is horrendous. That **** needs to get fixed, and yesterday. It's great that Stafford has been his best under Cooter, but he needs to learn how to get them in the endzone or this team is going nowhere.


Hasnít the red zone offense been aids for years?
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Old 10-02-2018, 04:25 PM   #12786
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Hasnít the red zone offense been aids for years?
Running is FUNdamental!
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Old 10-02-2018, 04:48 PM   #12787
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Hasn’t the red zone offense been aids for years?
We were 10th last year, 17th the year before that, 2nd the year before that (in red zone TD%).

The problem is we haven't been in the top 10 in red zone scoring ATTEMPTS per game since like 2011.
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Old 10-03-2018, 03:07 AM   #12788
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Lost by 2

Our **** tard coach punted in Dallas territory twice in the first quarter

Wonder why we dominated first third of the game and were only up 10

Į\_(ツ)_/Į
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Old 10-03-2018, 09:13 PM   #12789
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

2016 Lions started 1-3 and squeaked into the playoffs, so somehow all hope is not lost. They can get a big one with a division win this weekend. Let's go!
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Old 10-04-2018, 08:51 AM   #12790
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Originally Posted by Koss View Post
2016 Lions started 1-3 and squeaked into the playoffs, so somehow all hope is not lost. They can get a big one with a division win this weekend. Let's go!


Well if they lose this weekend seasons over

(Seasons already over)

Iíll still be watching and rooting.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:37 PM   #12791
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Not a Lions fan, but why does Patricia insist on not giving Kerryon Johnson RB1 snaps and touches?

He's averaging 5.7 YPC, 5.2 yards per reception, and a first down on 13/50 handoffs.

Blount, the "short-yardage" back, is averaging 2.5 YPC and a first down on 9/47 handoffs.

Riddick, the "receiving RB threat", is averaging 6 yards per reception on 15 more targets than KJ.

It feels like they're splitting snaps among the three almost evenly in the two Lions games I've watched in full. It feels like KJ passes the eye test as a legit RB1 option; has he missed blocks in some passing situations?
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Old 10-08-2018, 06:02 PM   #12792
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Prob donít want to wear him out


He needs more touches though. Heís legit.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:24 PM   #12793
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

He was also hurt yesterday and was held out of the 4th qtr due to injury, even though he said if he had to play he could have.

He has looked fine in pass pro, but the Lions offense demands a lot out of RBs in protection, so he probably doesnt know the whole playbook yet. I called it before the season that he would gradually become a bigger part of the offense. His production on the ground will accelerate it some, but this offense is still built around Staffords arm, and giving him protection and weapons is still the priority.
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Old 10-10-2018, 10:51 PM   #12794
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Also, can we stop pretending like we didn't all see that last weekend. Can we just put Kenny Golladay in a #81 jersey, because at this point I can't tell the difference. All the guy does is catch EVERYTHING thrown his way, often in highlight reel fashion. He's pretty much replaced Marvin Jones, a legit #1 in his own right, as Stafford's favorite deep threat. He might not have been as hyped coming out of college because he didn't put up the gawdy numbers at a big school and the ridiculous combine numbers, but his skills are pretty insane. He missed a lot of last season with an injury, and even when healthy wasn't as big a part of the offense, but they've unleashed him this year, and I like what I see so far.
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:50 AM   #12795
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

It's really an indictment of Jim Bob Cooter that this offense isn't producing more.

Our schemes are just so far behind so many of the league's good teams right now.

I feel like so many other teams get a big chunk play by scheme or design, and that almost never happens for the Lions. Every big play is because a WR wins a 1-on-1 matchup, Stafford makes a great throw to a semi-covered guy, etc.
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Old 10-11-2018, 05:51 PM   #12796
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
It's really an indictment of Jim Bob Cooter that this offense isn't producing more.

Our schemes are just so far behind so many of the league's good teams right now.

I feel like so many other teams get a big chunk play by scheme or design, and that almost never happens for the Lions. Every big play is because a WR wins a 1-on-1 matchup, Stafford makes a great throw to a semi-covered guy, etc.


Also. The jets knew our plays before they happened. Not a good plan for offense.
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Old 10-15-2018, 09:43 PM   #12797
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

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Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
It's really an indictment of Jim Bob Cooter that this offense isn't producing more.

Our schemes are just so far behind so many of the league's good teams right now.

I feel like so many other teams get a big chunk play by scheme or design, and that almost never happens for the Lions. Every big play is because a WR wins a 1-on-1 matchup, Stafford makes a great throw to a semi-covered guy, etc.
It definitely feels like we've been watching the best backyard football offense in the history of the NFL. The offense has been at its best with their backs against the wall, with Stafford calling plays at the line and throwing bullets all over the field.

JBC maybe has gotten a bit of a pass because of how much better he was than the horrible Lombardi years, and the fact that he never had a capable RB. This offense really should be a top 5 with the talent they have.

The GB game was a bit of redemption for the offense. They were 4/4 in the redzone, and were able to convert short yardage situations.

I don't disagree that offensive coaching has been below average. I hope Quinn sees it, and can work with Patricia to do something. I don't think replacing JBC is really the answer, just get someone on the staff that can help draw up some good plays that can be schemed in. It seems like the Lions are outscored like 2-1 in the red-zone on plays that confuse the defense and get a mismatch or get a guy wide open.
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Old 10-15-2018, 09:59 PM   #12798
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

Anyways, here's my bye-week thoughts:

The team is at a bit of a cross roads here. I think overall I see more good than bad. The Jets game was a bit of a flukey game that got out of hand. They were a couple of bad bounces away from beating SF and Dallas on the road, but got decisive home wins against the Pats and Packers. It feels like I've said this a lot about this team over the years, but they really just are a few bounces from being 4-1 at the bye and a totally different narrative surrounding this team.

The pass rush has been a pleasant surprise. The secondary has its holes, but overall is above league average. The biggest weakness is the run D, but this a brand new defense that's still coming together. While I don't think they are going to be a top half unit, if they can just get a bit more disciplined and stop giving up too many chunk plays on the ground, I don't think it'll be a fatal flaw.

The offense is really starting to click. They have a legit superstar in Golladay, and Kerryon Johnson looks like the best RB since James Stewart.

Outside of the Jets game, which I'm willing to forget, this team has looked better than I expected this year. They feel like a playoff team to me.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:30 AM   #12799
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

When the schedule game out if I knew we would be 2-3 with a win over Green Bay after 5 games I would snap take it

Still on pace for 9-7
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Old 10-21-2018, 05:07 PM   #12800
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Re: Detroit Lions: Bob the Builder

This running have makes me hard. Kerryons obv awesome but the o-line is creating holes constantly.

O starts turning fgs into tds and we are kinda scary.
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