ya i guess either way you have to hold them to <2 first downs. so is recovering the onside likely enough to warrant sacrificing 40 yards of field advantage should you get the ball back?
either way, team def has more pressing issues than caldwell's late game incompetence. but if we ever did field an actual good squad, he's a major liability.
So we trade a 7th round pick in 18 for a big physical corner. Makes sense I guess, even if the impact will be minimal. Short pass defense is our biggest liability right now.
Still in the playoff hunt. And still with a good chance of beating the preseason over 7 wins prop. This season has delivered so far imo. No one should be disappointed.
Reminds me of 2011 when Johnson stretched the field and then Stafford just hit Pettigrew for 10 yards per clip. He is definitely a match up problem and played pretty well today.
Somewhat serious question. I'm going to write a lot of text here of somewhat garbage math, so if you don't want to read it, just skip to the bottom of the post and I'll get to the point, for those sticking around, here it is :
Minnesota's clock management at the end of the game possibly cost them by leaving time on the clock when converting from the 1 yard line. But, that last sequence of downs started with 1:13 on the clock, and Minny 1st and goal from the 3. How often does an NFL team convert to a TD from first and goal at the 3 when they have all 4 downs avaiable and enough time? I'm going to assume it's north of 90%, but let's just call it 90.
Had they converted on 1st down that's roughly 1:09 for Stafford to move them into tying FG range, which will sometimes be winning FG because they will only convert the PAT about 93%, but we won't count that here. What are Stafford's odds of driving them downfield in 1:09? You know the D will play a bit soft, and this is Stafford's strength. 40%? 50%?. Let's call it 40% to get to the 35 in 1:09. Then Prater is 80% from there. So you have roughly a 32% chance of getting the score, which seems about right. But if you let Minny run the clock down at the goal line, those odds fall fast, REAL fast. The last drive in regulation was nothing short of a 2% miracle, that they got in range, stopped the clock, and Prater hit the FG, all with 0:23 seconds. But 40 more seconds those odds are much better. So if you're 32% to tie, and OT is a coinflip, your win% is now 16 if Minny scores on 1st and 3.
So the end question is, should Detroit have just let Minny score from 1st and 3 to give themselves enough time? Yes, a stop seals it, but if Stafford's odds with 1:09 are roughly 1.5 times more likely to result in a win than your defense getting a stop, isn't that the right path to take? I'm not aware of any coach actually conceding a late TD in the name of clock management, but how can it not be the right play here? Has anyone ever done this?
PS: So 1st and 3 is basically a 2 point conversion, which historically NFL teams convert about 50%. With Minny's 5 tries that puts them at north of 93% to convert. It would take some nads to do it, but the right call there is to let the Vikings walk it and give yourself as much clock as possible to make the comeback, rather than make a goal line stand.
PPS: I'm aware my numbers are mostly just guesses, but unless you think they have a greater chance of holding the line than historical situations, or Staffords odds don't change that much with more/less time on the clock, then I think the logic is sounds. Let em score once they get to the 3.
did someone hijack the hips account? we trailed after the 1st q, tied at half, and trailed after 3. offense was horrible for the most part. had less total yards than stafford had passing yards.
results though. sitting in the 3rd playoff seed atm!