Peter King's Gonso's "Things I Think I Think" (Dallas Cowboys edition)

• Jerry looks like an idiot for not bringing in real safety help, keeping Garrett, rolling the dice on Beuhler, and really the entire '09 draft class.
• Jerry looks like a genius for getting Austin's contract done, not extending Sensabaugh, and letting Flozell go.
• This whole Alan Ball thing isn't going to work. Yay he made a play.
• When people say "penalties aren't necessarily a big deal," they're talking about the occasional false start or offsides, or a TD-saving interference. They're not talking about end-zone celebrations on constant holding calls.
• Special teams needs a lot of work, but people are too hasty in blaming Joe DeCamillis. He's a very proven quantity at what he does, but a lot of players on the ST squad are not. The kicker is having issues on FGs and kickoffs, there are new guys out there, and vets like Sensebaugh are blowing tackles.
• Mike Jenkins will be fine.
• I don't think Romo is playing terribly, but the timing of his turnovers is pretty bad. With better running (see 2009) I think that can work itself out. He's averaging 41 throws per game and getting rid of the ball pretty quickly. Notice he's been sacked only 7 times (6 of them vs TEN), which give the line problems I think is pretty good. His stat line also suffers a bit due to some of the stupid penalties and defensive issues.

So you guys know I'm always looking at player contracts and structures, and here's where I think it's at.

Players there's a good chance we don't see on the '11 roster for contract, age, or production reasons:

Sensabaugh
Buehler
Barber
Kosier
Barron
Brooking.
Any and all of the coaching staff.

Young players with manageable contracts, who are either expendable temps, injury issues, or guys who can expect to fight off other competition to remain with the team (if not the NFL):

Holley
Ogletree
Scott Chandler
Sam Young
Barry Church
Stephen McGee
Jeremy Parnell
Steven Hodge
Phil Costa
Sean Lissemore
Danny McCray
Josh Brent
Every linebacker named Williams

Players who have to start playing better (or be reasonably priced) before we think about extensions or re-signs:

Scandrick
Sensabaugh
Bennett
Spears

Players that need extensions/new contracts and are likely get them unless they have really excessive demands:

Choice
Holland
Bowen

Players that need extensions/new contracts immediately or relatively soon, and are almost certainly getting them:

Free
McBriar
Ratliff
Spencer

Not going anywhere:

Romo
Ware
Jenkins
Newman
Gurode
Olshansky
Gronkowski
Bradie James
Witten
Felix Jones
Colombo
Dez Bryant
Sean Lee
LaDouceur, L.P.
Butler
Sean Lee
AoA
Leonard Davis - is actually cheaper to keep next year than to cut, so if he has any value (even as a backup) he'll probably be around.

X-Factors:

Roy Williams. He's due $5.1m in 2011, and as bizarre as it seems he's actually been pretty clutch and productive so far, especially in the red zone. If he can stay that way he might stick around another year for that price. We could return the same WR lineup next year, minus Hurd, and that should be fine. Despite the Ogletree hype he's been having some issues and Holley is still a project, but at #4 and #5 that's to be expected.

Kitna. Probably a keeper, but depends on whether he wants to keep playing (he is 38), and whether or not McGee develops.

John Phillips. Seems solid, maybe a future starting option even, but reconstructive ACL surgery isn't something every player can recover from.

Wow, GOAT title change imo. Wish I could take credit.

I also has the sinking feeling that you could hire a Gruden or Cowher and still see a lot of these problems next year. Even once you strip away all of the "dumb", there are basic execution problems and holes in the personnel.

AORN 3rd in offensive YPG, 4th in defensive YPG, and we're 1-4. It would be epic if we could remain top 5 in both and still finish under .500...hey, gotta have something to shoot for, right?

Broken clavicle for Romo...so much for 2010. Hey, at least basketball starts tomorrow.

I believe you have another sports team in your metro area that may be doing well in some kind of important tournament.

Cowboys had their chance to return basically their '09 roster this year, and clearly they're playing worse. Since the season's all but officially shot maybe we can get a better look at some of these younger guys like McGee, the new safties and LBs in there for a better look. It's not like Kitna's going to rescue the season.

Miles, Dez, Felix, Free, and Romo (before injury) are probably the only 5 offensive players I have any real confidence in. Maybe Witten despite some penalties and looking like he's slowing down a bit. Not seeing much else. Defense is even worse. Supposedly Pro Bowl corners are getting torched and missing tackles, Scandrick looks like a scrub, and the safety positions are a mess.

Don't think JJ has much choice but to let Wade and certainly Garrett go, there needs to be a change of scenery and atmosphere. Typically I've been okay with Wade since he tends to field great defensive units, but without even that I can't see his value. They've given up at least 24 in the last 5 games. Let these guys play out 2010 but it's time to move on imo. Wade/Garrett had their 4-year shot and with a pretty good roster, and the division isn't even that great this year.

paging Bill Cowher?

It started when they picked up TO and Bill Parcels left the team.

Party up in this thread. I'm drinkin you guys drinkin

CBS11 is reporting that Wade is gone and Garrett is the interm HC. No word from Valley Ranch.

gg Wade

Usually pointless to make coaching changes mid-season, but JJ really had no choice here. Wade totally lost the team.

Bumping for the offseason.

We're picking 9th. If we don't get lucky and have one of:

Prince, Fairley, Quinn, Dareus, Bowers fall to us I want to trade back and stockpile OL's.

TBH I'm kind of hoping one of the OT's has a badass workout/combine and brings himself in position for us to draft him without reaching. We don't need a LT, I'd think we could find a RT early. But if we can't go OL in the first, we have to address it in the second I would think.

trade down
OL
safety
more OL
DE
more safety
more DE
corner
yet even more OL
best placekicker available

If they do take one of the top two corners, they better be right about him. I'm all for BPA but a couple of these spots we don't have starters OR backups for.

Am I crazy for thinking the Cowboys could really use a RB? I'm not really sold on the Choice/F. Jones combo. It seems pretty average to me. I'd love to see Mark Ingram in here. I wouldn't be upset if we landed the cornerback from Nebraska tho. Newman can't have more than 2-3 more productive years left if he even has that left.

I think so, yes.

RB's are so replaceable in todays NFL, there's almost no reason to ever draft one in the first round, especially when it's not a real position of need. Jones/Choice is easily a top 15 combo in the league. I think Felix had a really good year this year given the OL he was running behind. If I had a choice, the Cowboys would use a 4-7th round pick on a RB every three years. Never sign FA RB to any sort of large contract, and just continuously funnel cheap hungry RB's through the team.

Ship the Rob Ryan hire. Definitely the best of what was left, hopefully he can make our defense mean.

Ron Ryan a sensible hire.

RB not needed. Barber likely gone and really just need a body, find a late-round pick or UFA and go with it (unless there's an OTA/camp injury to Choice or Felix). QB/WR/RB/TE aren't needs. You want a better run game invest in better run blocking.

*Of course I like a young stud halfback as much as the next guy, just saying it's near the dead bottom of the list with so many other pressing needs.

Holy crap Rob Ryan's real name is Remus?

Martellus Bennett is once again doing the only thing he knows how to do: flap his gums. This time he wants open competition between Kitna and Romo.

Would be nice if he put the same kind of effort on the practice and football field.

Taking me a bit of work to try and like Dallas' draft so far

OT Tyron Smith - Ok I guess & fills a need. Doesn't look like the dominating tackle he's made out to be and people think he needs work. The games of him on YouTube are all pretty meh and he has a thing for holding every other play. A few people thing he's a future LT but I don't see that in 2011 at all. Maybe down the line.

LB Bruce Carter - 2nd year in a row we took an ILB coming off of major knee surgery, can't we draft these guys healthy? Coming off ACL reconstruction 4 months ago but is expected to make a full recovery. He'll play weak-side and replace or back up Brooking. I don't hate the pick and it is a need, but injuries like that scare me when drafted that high. You don't really know if you're getting the same player they once were. Brooking and Bradie James won't be around long so Lee and Carter are the future and will need to play a lot this year. I'd love this pick had it come in the 3rd but he probably wouldn't have lasted.

RB DeMarco Murray - Barber's gone and this guy looks okay, solid throughout college. He also plays special teams which isn't something we've got from out RBs lately. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Dallas really likes Lonyae Miller. It's Choice's last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes on the trading block.

I'm a little concerned that neither the secondary nor D-line has been addressed in any way. Hopefully the rest of the picks will be defensive prospects, though another o-line pick wouldn't hurt. Right now it looks like Sensabaugh's getting resigned along with a higher-end free agent to man the safety positions, and we're promoting one of our backup defensive lineman to a starter.

I can't help but think that stupid last minute TD in the Philly game to close out the season cost us Patrick Peterson.

Figured it's time for a rundown, looking at my last big post from October there's definitely some changes.


***

QB: Romo, Kitna & McGee. I don't see anything changing this year, Kitna played well last year and his contract favors keeping him. McGee looks like the future backup and doesn't cost anything. Unless some undrafted FA shows up and blows everyone's mind this is it.

RB: Barber figures to be cut. Felix Jones starts, Murray was drafted, and Choice is still here. Seems like they don't like Choice very much for whatever reason, he's looked okay when I've seen him. Don't be surprised if he's traded and an undrafted takes his spot, or if they go with four backs. Lonyae Miller turned some heads last year.

FB: No one seems sold on Gronkowski, and they drafted Shaun Chapas. They'll be fighting and I'm sure you'll see a couple more undrafteds looked at as well.

TE: Witten isn't going anywhere. Bennett is a good blocker and stays unless a favorable trade offer comes in. Would really like John Phillips back healthy, he had a great offseason last year before tearing his ACL. If he's healthy and can get back into it quickly he'll have a leg up on all the undrafteds.

WR: Miles and Dez start. Roy might stick around another year based on his play early last year with Romo, the cap problems cutting him would create, and the uncertainly with Dez's health and behavior. Likely that's your top 3 unless you get two really strong showings from our project guys, and even then it will be hard to fit Roy's dead money under the cap.

6th-round pick DeWayne Harris is interesting, some knocks on his hands, speed and size, but still very productive and a good returner. There's also several guys that have been hanging around on the practice squad and roster for a while: Ogletree, Holley, Titus Ryan & Manny Johnson.

Sam Hurd isn't coming back. He's useful and good on special teams, but wants at least an honest shot to start, and he just isn't getting that here. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have some success elsewhere.

OT: The way things turned out, Doug Free is now and unrestricted free agent and has to be signed. Tyron Smith was drafted #9 overall which means he starts this year on the right side, which is scary since he's thought to be a little on the raw side. Columbo will be cut, Alex Barron - lol.

Sam Young and Robert Brewster are the backups and the jury is out on them, plus Jeremy Parnell is in the mix. Most likely we'll be signing a veteran to backup on the cheap, maybe Columbo. Expect a lot of competition for roster spots from everywhere.

OG: For $6m, Leonard Davis stays another year, and despite a few bad games he can still be effective. Kyle Kosier is now a free agent and played better late in the year, but he'd have to be reasonable. Montrae Holland will likely start if not. I don't expect to see Kosier and Holland both on the final roster though.

David Arkin was drafted in the 5th, and Travis Bright is a big guy the like talking about but with no field time. Phil Costa is more a center but can fill in at guard in a pinch. There is definitely room for an undrafted or cheap vet to make the team.

C: Gurode's still a good center and you can't replace him for the $2m cutting him would save. They like Phil Costa as a backup C/G and he's got the inside track on returning. Rookie Bill Nagy was two picks away from going undrafted.

Defense.

DE: We're in a bit of a fix here. One starter (Spears) is a free agent we might not be able to afford, and we burned him on the money last year, the other (Igor) didn't play very well. Worse, the two decent young prospects we had backing up (Hatcher and Bowen) are also free agents. Bowen's earned a contract imo, and if Spears isn't resigned, they don't have a choice but to sign a good free agent. There's Sean Lissemore, a rookie from last year, showed some flashes and can play nose in a pinch.

Right now though, they need bodies at this position badly.

DT: Jay Ratliff can play but for a nose tackle he's not that big, that works in Wade's scheme but Ryan's 3-4 had tended toward bigger bodies in the middle. He says he likes Jay where he is though, and won't move him to end. We'll see.

Josh Brent was a supplemental 7th rounder from last year and was on the field a lot (active all 16 games too). He won his roster spot with a broken hand. I think this will turn out to be a great pick and future starter.

OLB: DeMarcus Ware, that's all there is to say. Spencer returns on the other side, who knows how he'll play. Victor Butler isn't on the field much but has looked like a good pass-rusher and possible heir to Spencer's job after this year.

After that, there really isn't much going on. Brandon Williams has been hurt since being drafted in '09 and will be fighting free agents.

ILB: All kinds of guys here, and all have concerns. Bradie James is a reliable vet and should finish out his last year. If you believe Jerry Jones, Brooking is coming back for sure as well.

Behind them, there's "Bruce Lee," our 2010+2011 2nd rounders Sean Lee and Bruce Carter. Both are fantastic prospects, but both have injury concerns as well.

S: Every year, same thing. The Alan Ball idea was a failure and Sensabaugh is a free agent who might not be so keen on re-signing after not getting a deal last year. Lots of hype about last years' 4th rounder Awasi-Osn... AoA, but played 0 defensive snaps before getting lost for the season. McCray (undrafted) was a special teams player and didn't look so great as a safety. Another undrafted who made the team last year, Barry Church, did an mediocre job filling in at strong safety but may have some upside.

Long story short, I don't see anyone currently under contract that can start at either safety position. My prediction is that they sign a solid free agent to a long-term deal (maybe Sensabaugh, maybe not), plus a stopgap older vet to a one-year to get them through.

CB: The big question is Newman, it could go either way. It costs $4m to cut him, and $8m to play him. And if you cut him someone has to be signed and paid. It all comes down to whether or not they think he has a good year in him. I really don't know if he does or not.

Jenkins looked good in '09, and tragic last year, though he picked up a bit later in the season. For $920k he isn't going anywhere, just hope for the best. Scandrick figures to be the slot corner again but if there's some fail with a starter he might get a chance to step up. There's potential with this group for a good season, or another total disaster.

Behind those guys there's a bunch of fringe players. Bryan McCann had some offseason drama and seems a reasonable special teams player, Alan Ball is going back to corner and may not even make the team, and there's others plus two of their first undrafteds brought in are corners. No reason to get excited about depth at this position.

They did pick up Josh Thomas in the 5th round, more of a cover guy, whole hopefully can find a role.

Special Teams:

Mat McBriar isn't cheap for a punter but he's definitely one of the best in the league, and probably due an extension.

At kicker, Buehler might be in some trouble. They moved kickoffs closer, which hurts him as kickoffs are his strong suit. Besides Dallas bringing in Kris Brown to compete, they've also just picked up Dan Bailey who won college football's top kicker award last year.

L. P. Ladouceur has been as perfect as a long snapper can be.

So, here's my best guess at the final 53 players:

QB Romo
QB Kitna
QB McGee

RB F. Jones
RB Choice
RB Murray

FB S. Chapas

WR Austin
WR Bryant
WR R. Williams
WR Ogletree
WR Dwayne Harris

OT Free
OT Smith
OT Young
OT undrafted player

G: L. Davis
G: Holland
FA G: Daryn Colledge (lol)
G: Arkin

C: Gurode
C/G: Costa

TE Witten
TE Bennett
TE Phillips

FA DE Cullen Jenkins
DE Bowen
DE Oshansky
DE Lissemore

DT Ratliff
DT Brent

OLB Ware
OLB Spencer
OLB Butler
OLB Undrafted Player

ILB Bradie James
ILB Keith Brooking
ILB Sean Lee
ILB Bruce Carter

FA FS Abram Elam
FA SS Danieal Manning
S Barry Church
S Aoa
S undrafted player

CB Newman
CB Jenkins
CB Scandrick
CB J. Thomas
CB undrafted player

K Bailey
P McBriar
LS Ladouceur