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04-26-2009 , 10:01 PM

#251

bnrocks

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,375

my.. my god, that's jacoby ellsbury's music!!!

play of the year.

Quote

04-26-2009 , 10:28 PM

#252

Donkey OT

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,175

man, how many stolen bases would ellsbury have if he didn't suck as a hitter?

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04-26-2009 , 10:42 PM

#253

BK1248

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 3,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by sublime

lawl. love the yankees in april, always a trainwreck

whats ur take on masterson sublime? how u been?

Quote

04-27-2009 , 12:31 AM

#254

tercet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 8,001

You guys have awesome bullpen/sp depth...

GJ to epstein for not trading away every prospect in the system unlike Cashman...

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04-27-2009 , 12:59 AM

#255

sublime

Mr. Roper

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 22,522

Quote:

Originally Posted by BK1248

whats ur take on masterson sublime? how u been?

masterson seems awesome, but we don't have a seasons worth of MLB data to work with yet so who knows.

im fine, hope all is well with the kid and all. holla next time u out here.

Quote

04-27-2009 , 06:33 AM

#256

youtalkfunny

dumbest smart person his mom knows

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 21,758

So I'm watching the game in a casino, no sound, no captions.

Bases loaded. Pettitte winds and kicks. Before the pitch, the fans behind the backstop rise, pointing up the third base line with "I can't believe what I'm seeing!" expressions on their faces.

I thought that either:

--A drunk fell onto the warning track from the Monster Seats;

--Or FanMan was hung up on the Fisk Pole.

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04-27-2009 , 06:45 AM

#257

Toro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 9,791

Limp home from Oakland at 3-6. Dice K to DL. Beckett suspended. So who saw this coming, sweeping the homestand, unreal.

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04-27-2009 , 01:13 PM

#258

Flow73

adept

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 896

Quote:

Originally Posted by youtalkfunny

Even with the sound it took me a while to figure out what was happening. The announcer just gasped mid-sentence, by the time he regained himself Ellsbury was already stumbling into the plate.

Quote

04-27-2009 , 01:18 PM

#259

Lazy Meatball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 7,173

On another note, I know little about baseball strategy, but is the risk of stealing home worth it when you have two men in scoring position with two outs and JD Drew at bat? Does the count make a difference?

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04-27-2009 , 01:27 PM

#260

zer0

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lazy Meatball

wasnt there 2 outs?

but anyways, in the mlb thread a couple posters figured you would have to be successful 55% of the time to make it a +ev play (using 1999-2002 data)

Quote

04-27-2009 , 01:31 PM

#261

shipontilt

self-banned

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 12,209

If any of you get Mike Francesa's show simulcast up in New England or where ever you sox fans are, it's hilarious how he is killing the Yankees and praising the Redsox.

Quote

04-27-2009 , 01:34 PM

#262

correia

grinder

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 669

Quote:

Originally Posted by shipontilt

If any of you get Mike Francesa's show simulcast up in New England or where ever you sox fans are, it's hilarious how he is killing the Yankees and praising the Redsox.

Priceless! He literally spent the first 20 minutes of the show completely ripping apart the Yankees players and front office.

Quote

04-27-2009 , 01:59 PM

#263

benza13

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,193

that was a fun little series. had saturdays game on but missed tek's slam cuz i wasn't paying much attention, def was locked on for every at bat from that point on. Its actually starting to feel like baseball season

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04-27-2009 , 02:58 PM

#264

gehrig

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 8,241

Quote:

Originally Posted by zer0

wasnt there 2 outs?

but anyways, in the mlb thread a couple posters figured you would have to be successful 55% of the time to make it a +ev play (using 1999-2002 data)

stealing home should be done a ton more. people seem to rarely get caught. if jason varitek is up against scot shields or something, the break-even point is probably like 28%. might be life -EV for the manager/runner tho.

also: i think masterson could be a monster. i think theres like a 35% chance that he's one of the top handful of pitchers in baseball a year from now

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04-27-2009 , 02:59 PM

#265

gehrig

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 8,241

oof it turns out scot shields is toast. just meant a good but not otherworldly reliever

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04-27-2009 , 03:04 PM

#266

Phildo

doesn't watch the games

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 22,773

i'm not sure stealing home would be nearly as successful if people did it all the time, and not just because of the surprise factor. it's possible that stealing home rarely fails because managers are very selective about it.

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04-27-2009 , 03:12 PM

#267

gehrig

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 8,241

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phildo

well yeah, the success rate is so high only because managers are too selective. if teams are only caught 20% of the time, and there's plenty of spots where it's +EV to get caught 60% of the time, then teams are making a mistake by not attempting more

Quote

04-27-2009 , 05:07 PM

#268

Flow73

adept

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 896

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phildo

Very true. Ellsbury in one of the faster guys in the league. Petit is a lefty, throwing from the windup, and has a slow delivery anyway. The Yankees 3B was far off the bag letting Ellsbury lead off farther. The pitch was a curve ball. Posada didn't seem to see Ellsbury coming until he was more than halfway home. The play at the plate was pretty close, change any of those variables and the outcome could be different.

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04-27-2009 , 05:13 PM

#269

bigt2k4

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 15,296

it is really easy to steal home off petitte, change the pitcher and it doesnt happen

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04-27-2009 , 05:14 PM

#270

tercet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 8,001

Boston fan's would you trade Buckholz, Bowden, Anderson for Roy Halladay?

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04-27-2009 , 05:18 PM

#271

zer0

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by tercet

Boston fan's would you trade Buckholz, Bowden, Anderson for Roy Halladay?

in a milisecond

Quote

04-27-2009 , 09:21 PM

#272

BK1248

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 3,773

manny can skmydk

BAY!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

04-27-2009 , 09:47 PM

#273

BK1248

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 3,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by tercet

Boston fan's would you trade Buckholz, Bowden, Anderson for Roy Halladay?

all 3? I dont think they would ever do that.

Quote

04-27-2009 , 10:16 PM

#274

BANGARANG

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,436

Quote:

Originally Posted by zer0

in a milisecond

meh

Quote

04-27-2009 , 10:29 PM

#275

Donkey OT

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by tercet

Boston fan's would you trade Buckholz, Bowden, Anderson for Roy Halladay?

No.

Quote

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