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Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks?

10-31-2011 , 05:17 PM
We have a great looking pitching staff with little need to spend any big money:

1P-Hanson
2P-Hudson
3P-Jurrjens
4P-Beachy
5P-Teheran
6P-Medlen
7P-Minor
CL-Kimbrel
LH-Venters
RH-Vizcaino
LH-O'Flaherty
RH-Delgado

There's going to be some serious competition for the 4/5 spots in the rotation, so the bullpen should be loaded with talented rejects from the rotation.

The offense isn't looking very elite, but we're looking pretty good imo. I'm hoping most of the money we saved goes into improvements here. Right now it looks like:

CF-Bourn
LF-Prado
3B-Jones
2B-Uggla
C-McCann
1B-Freeman
RF-Heyward
SS-AGonz?
IF-Conrad
IF-Hernandez?
OF-Hinske
OF-Costanza?
C-Ross

What do we need here other than a SS and utility IF? If Heyward can bounce back, Uggla can avoid the terrible 1st half, and Chipper can keep up some production I feel like we're looking pretty good on offense.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 05:31 PM
Never know, but would expect Beachy and Minor to be locked into the 4 and 5 spots barring some very unexpected spring training results. Forgot about Medlen, but would expect him to permanently go back to bullpen given the SP depth in our system and his injury/lack of experience as a starter even in the minors. Teheran and Delgado are the 6th/7th starters and will surely get utilized at some point this season, imo.

Any idea what we can expect from Hanson and Jurrjens next season given their injuries? Do we expect full recovery, so business as usual, or is there a chance of lingering effects? Think Hanson had shoulder injuries, which is serious business. Haven't heard anything, so assume all is going well though.

Offense actually look very good to me. It just massively underperformed last season. As you say, just need Heyward and Uggla to put up expected production for a full season. Prado too. And have Freeman to continue to develop. Obv we can't count on all of those 4 of those things happening in one season, but individually, think all four should be fantastic bets to improve on last season. That is half our lineup. And only player I would maybe expect to regress from last season is Chipper.

One spot on our team that should expected be an offensive liability is SS, but that is obv acceptable, imo.

Last edited by Pwn_Master; 10-31-2011 at 05:56 PM.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pwn_Master
Getting rid of Lowe was obv great for us, but agree it is a good price for Indians too. His peripherals were good, and seems to be a worthy gamble to hope he can be a slightly below averagish innings eater for a year. We just have better, cheaper options is all.

Gonzalez will be 35 and coming off a pretty bad offensive year. Maybe we have to give him $3 million but think that is about it. If we he leaves for whatever reason, think we plan on having Pastornicky be the guy and just resign Jack Wilson for cheap as insurance/back-up.

Can't see Moylan coming back, just not a good cost/benefit option given the risk and our other options for his spot.

Haven't looked at it closely, but with Prado being able to slid into the 2B/3B positions, is it a big deal to carry 5 OFs?
The problem right now is that if you have Ross, Hinske, Diaz on bench then you have two spots left and we need someone that can play CF and someone that can play SS. There are a handful of guys in MLB that can play both SS and CF at a decent enough level to be the backup for both positions. Problem is we probably won't get any one of them. So, you lose Brooks (not that a big of a deal) and have to add a backup SS and backup CF. Let's say we do it internally and go with Diory and Constanza. You end up with a bench of Ross, Hinske, Diaz, Diory, Constanza. I think I'd rather have Brooks over Diaz considering the cost in that scenario.

If we want to upgrade and sign a corner OFer who also can't play CF then Diaz really does have to go. Prado slides into a super utility role and you have a bench of Ross, Hinske, Prado, Diory, Constanza.

If you can somehow manage to get a Beltran type (a guy you'd start at a corner OF position but can easily get 10-15 starts a year in CF), then you can go with whoever you want in that last bench spot (Brooks, Diaz, etc). You'd have a bench of Ross, Hinske, Prado, Diory, whoever you want.

I think a decent possibility would be to package together O'Flaherty and Diaz and see what you can get in return with the main point of the move being to get Diaz's $2m off your books and clearing O'Flaherty's salary. That kind of deal could save you $3-4m depending on what O'Flaherty gets in arbitration, and I think you could get a decent prospect or two as O'Flaherty's value is probably peaking at the moment (especially if a team wants to make him their closer). Medlen and Vizcaino could takeover the 7th inning with Meds as the guy you'd bring is vs tough lefties (he has a reverse platoon split b/c of his nasty changeup).

You do that and you might have $12-13m to use to get any corner OFer available (even Beltran I believe).
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 06:17 PM
I kinda wish we could find a good salary controlled SS/OF to send somewhere for a pitching package (Jurrjens/Delgado/etc type deal). I'm all for SP depth, but I'd rather have some $1m aging veteran type as our 6th/7th SP and cash in on some of our surplus value.

It definitely doesn't seem like we can go into 2013 with all of these guys. I'd rather get a full season of help than a deadline-deal. I guess the only benefit of waiting for a while is to see how Chipper is doing.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 06:43 PM
Have to remember to Fredi refuses to pinch-hit with Ross, so unless we get that fixed, Diaz would be our primary RH pinch-hitting option.

Obv I'm fine with trading anybody if the price is right. I'm not set on Diaz coming back, but Pirates had to eat some last year's salary to get us to take him. Imagine we would have to do the same.

Seeking a trade O'Flaherty just to save money seems like fancy play syndrome to me. Yes, he over-performed last year, but think everyone knows that. We are loaded now, but going into the season with a super-deep pen, and being to survive any injuries without a sweat would be fantastic. After all, for as deep as we were last year, Venters and Kimbrel were still over worked, and I think only a small part of the blame for that lies with Fredi (and even if all of it does, he is still our manager next season, so....).

I saw that CAC was advocating for Prado to be moved to a super-utility role and for us to acquire a starting OF. Meh, that just seems like a cluster**** waiting to happen to me, kind of a fantasy baseball trade. Guy is a legit All-Star 2nd baseman and makes a sacrifice for the team, and then you do him like that after one bad year that is probably at least in some part attributable to the adjustment? Can't imagine it would go over well. Plus we have Fredi running the team, so I could see him starting Prado and benching Heyward for the new guy, lol.

Plus its not like there is a great crop of FA outfielders. Beltran seems pretty risky. I am strongly in favor of just continuing with the plan of keeping Prado in the OF for another year, and then acquiring a RF after this season and having Prado replace Chipper at 3rd. Use the money we do have this season to fill out the roster around the edges with some Jerry Hairston, Jr. types and then make a big splash next off-season.
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10-31-2011 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benholio
I kinda wish we could find a good salary controlled SS/OF to send somewhere for a pitching package (Jurrjens/Delgado/etc type deal). I'm all for SP depth, but I'd rather have some $1m aging veteran type as our 6th/7th SP and cash in on some of our surplus value.

It definitely doesn't seem like we can go into 2013 with all of these guys. I'd rather get a full season of help than a deadline-deal. I guess the only benefit of waiting for a while is to see how Chipper is doing.
Delgado and Teheran are 21 and 20, respectively. Don't see any reason to expect their values to decrease in the next season or two. And prob shouldn't/can't trade Jurrjens or Hanson now because of their injuries, which relatedly is a good reason to have strong 6th/7th starters. Hudson is 36 and in the last year of his contract, so we prob let him go after this season, and plan on having one of Delgado and Teheran slid in for 2013. After dumping Lowe, don't really see a need to trade our SP. Obv we should be open to all possibilities but I am very happy with where we are now.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 06:53 PM
Just looked at Hudson's B-Ref page. We have a $9 million option on him next season, which seems like it prob will be a good bet to pick-up. Meh, maybe we do still have "too much" SP. Guess the best way to deal with it is to keep Jurrjens for the start of the season to let him prove he is healthy and rebuild some value, then flip him and move Delgado or Teheran into the rotation.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pwn_Master
Delgado and Teheran are 21 and 20, respectively. Don't see any reason to expect their values to decrease in the next season or two. And prob shouldn't/can't trade Jurrjens or Hanson now because of their injuries, which relatedly is a good reason to have strong 6th/7th starters. Hudson is 36 and in the last year of his contract, so we prob let him go after this season, and plan on having one of Delgado and Teheran slid in for 2013. After dumping Lowe, don't really see a need to trade our SP. Obv we should be open to all possibilities but I am very happy with where we are now.
I think we have a 2013 club option on Hudson for $9m which should be picked up. Otherwise, I can't really argue with your points. If Jurrjens and Hanson are both healthy at the break or at the end of 2012 then it might make more sense.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 11:00 PM
Pitching will be really solid and deep. Hopefully Fredi manages the bullpen better next season.

Offense should be fine. But i've been saying that the last few years and they laid an egg every time. Maybe this is the year they exceed expectations instead of falling short? Heyward .320 25 HR 104 RBI 7.2 WAR imo
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 11:12 PM
Heyward .272/.388/.543, 34 HR

89 RBI and 64 R from the 7th spot all year
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
10-31-2011 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tdomeski
The Lowe deal is really good for both sides. Obviously for us we needed the roster space more than even the salary relief. Getting to save $5m is pretty huge for us as well. Once Wren let the cat out of the bag publicly after the season and said Lowe wasn't expected to be in the 2012 rotation it became clear that he was worth less to us than pretty much any other team in MLB. At $5m/yr the Indians have to be happy to get a guy that will probably throw 200 innings.
+1

A boost for all Braves fans!
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-01-2011 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pwn_Master
Have to remember to Fredi refuses to pinch-hit with Ross, so unless we get that fixed, Diaz would be our primary RH pinch-hitting option.

Obv I'm fine with trading anybody if the price is right. I'm not set on Diaz coming back, but Pirates had to eat some last year's salary to get us to take him. Imagine we would have to do the same.

Seeking a trade O'Flaherty just to save money seems like fancy play syndrome to me. Yes, he over-performed last year, but think everyone knows that. We are loaded now, but going into the season with a super-deep pen, and being to survive any injuries without a sweat would be fantastic. After all, for as deep as we were last year, Venters and Kimbrel were still over worked, and I think only a small part of the blame for that lies with Fredi (and even if all of it does, he is still our manager next season, so....).

I saw that CAC was advocating for Prado to be moved to a super-utility role and for us to acquire a starting OF. Meh, that just seems like a cluster**** waiting to happen to me, kind of a fantasy baseball trade. Guy is a legit All-Star 2nd baseman and makes a sacrifice for the team, and then you do him like that after one bad year that is probably at least in some part attributable to the adjustment? Can't imagine it would go over well. Plus we have Fredi running the team, so I could see him starting Prado and benching Heyward for the new guy, lol.

Plus its not like there is a great crop of FA outfielders. Beltran seems pretty risky. I am strongly in favor of just continuing with the plan of keeping Prado in the OF for another year, and then acquiring a RF after this season and having Prado replace Chipper at 3rd. Use the money we do have this season to fill out the roster around the edges with some Jerry Hairston, Jr. types and then make a big splash next off-season.
Yeah I mean I am definitely okay with rolling what we got, when Chipper hits the DL for 15 days you slide Prado to 3B and platoon Diaz/Hinske in LF. I'm fine with that.

I think if we can make a significant short term (as in 2 year deal or less) upgrade in LF then we should do it and move Prado to super-utility. I mean, it'd be silly to not upgrade the one spot on your team that you can. Prado will still get 100 starts a year on the low end if Fredi uses him properly (that's tough to tell) and gets him starts at 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF.

Everyone has been talking about Willingham being a Brave for the past 3 years, but I think if the Braves actually wanted him they would have gotten him at some point. He's also a Type A FA and wants 3 years, so I'm not really feeling it. Really on the FA market the only player I'd get excited about would be Beltran on a 1-2 year deal or maybe Sizemore if we could get him on the cheap/incentive type deal. Both guys would be your backup CFer so you wouldn't have to carry Constanza on the roster. Both guys would probably be a lock to have at least one stint on the DL (kind of like Chipper), but that's what Prado is for.

I'd give Beltran a 2 year deal that was backloaded so we could afford him this year. Sizemore could get like a 1 year/$3m with a 2nd year vesting option for $7-8m or something if he gets x number of PA's.

With that said, if we start Opening Day without making a move at all between now and then aside from resigning AGon and have $5m or so to make a move in season then I'm 100% okay with it. Don't see that happening, though.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-02-2011 , 07:20 PM
That scrub McCann won his 5th Silver Slugger Award. Congrats Big Mac!
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-02-2011 , 09:55 PM
Beltran and Sizemore would be good fits in the lineup imo.

I like that we would have a legit backup at every position if we moved Prado to a super-utility role, but I'd like him to get around 450 ABs which may be tough if the unthinkable happens (Chipper and the OF stay healthy).

What would be a reasonable amount of starts if everyone stayed healthy?

25-30 at 3B
50-60 in OF
15-20 at 2B
15-20 at 1B?
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-02-2011 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown1010
Beltran and Sizemore would be good fits in the lineup imo.

I like that we would have a legit backup at every position if we moved Prado to a super-utility role, but I'd like him to get around 450 ABs which may be tough if the unthinkable happens (Chipper and the OF stay healthy).

What would be a reasonable amount of starts if everyone stayed healthy?

25-30 at 3B
50-60 in OF
15-20 at 2B
15-20 at 1B?
Probably 10-15 at each 2B and 1B assuming Uggla and Freeman don't go on the DL at all like 2011.

30 is probably the low end at 3B given they'll give Chipper a day off about once a week.

40 in OF given no DL stints from anyone (unlikely). Number goes to like 55-60 if someone hits the DL.

I think he'd get 100 starts in a super-utility role, and we'd use him as a defensive replacement at 3B late in games as he's one of the probably top 5 defensive third baseman in baseball.

Throw in some pinch hitting and he easily gets 450 PA's on the low end, and you have the best insurance policy in baseball all year long for Chipper.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 01:36 PM
and..

Prado would be a great Right handed bat off the bench in games he doesn't start.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borgland
That scrub McCann won his 5th Silver Slugger Award. Congrats Big Mac!
So glad we extended McCann and not Frenchy back in the day.

Speaking of Silver Sluggers...

WTF is with Adrian Gonzales getting the award of Miguel Caberra? MC had a higher batting average, more HRs, more walks, less K's, both higher OBP, OPS

Adrian has a few more RBI's? um... ok? WTF

Does anyone see this in a different light than myself?
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 01:45 PM
Also, Boston/east coast, and memory of his epic first half

But yeah, Miggy got screwed

RIP Greear
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 06:59 PM
Apparently Braves are talking about trading Prado and Jurrjens:

http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/2011/1...ens-and-prado/

I guess that is fine. Thinking about it, the reason I am always against the "trade so and so" posts unless it is obvious that a move needs to be made is that I assume if the Braves are shopping somebody and going out of their way to trade them then we will get less than fair value for them. Maybe not a ton less, but enough so that we will "lose" the trade. That and also we are usually talking about guys with decent salaries and I don't trust Liberty Media to put the money back into the team.

But Wren has been raping pretty hard on trades recently so if he can get a fair package for them and get back or sign a good RF, then guess I am all for it.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 07:18 PM
Nooooooooo! No Martin! I've come to really like him(any man who gets that excited over a drinking game is alright) despite this down year. I think it was mostly due to injuries and not having the time to fully recover during the season.

Trading JJ is understandable due to the depth of Braves pitching. It's also a bit expected since we didn't trade any of the young "Big 4". Get value before he becomes unaffordable in free agency.

And yeah, no trust in Liberty either.

Last edited by Borgland; 11-03-2011 at 07:23 PM.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 07:22 PM
Ugh. Trading Prado seems pretty friggin dumb to me but whatever..In Wren We Trust
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 07:41 PM
Wat
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-03-2011 , 08:09 PM
Yeah man, about Prado, understand we are under-utilizing him in the OF, but its just one more year, then he plugs a huge hole for us that would be hard to fill. Aren't that many good 3rd basemen out there. Also, obv still great Chipper insurance for this year.
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-04-2011 , 04:21 AM
What type of player would be worth trading Prado and JJ for?

Troy Tulowiztki?

I wish!
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote
11-04-2011 , 07:06 AM
throw in CarGo and it's a deal
Atlanta Braves: Win More Games Than The Hawks? Quote

      
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