I'm not sure if you're leveling or not but I'll post this anyways.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...name=Neyer_Rob

Why?

For like the first time itt, I'm totally disagreeing with TD. Man, I usually love your posts, but I'm not with you at all here. I think the Phils would be huge faves against us in the NLCS, and I have no faith in the Braves against us in any series against anyone. Not that I think we don't beat anyone, just think we'd be a clear (read ~40%) underdog to anyone. I've read that the home/road diffs are just statistical variance, but I'm not really buying it. I don't think this team can get it done on the road in the playoffs. We'd have to win both games at home in a 5 gamer, because there is no way we're winning 2 out of 3 on the road in the playoffs.

I just really don't think the Braves are that good. Our pitching is supposed to be our strength, and up until this last series, they really haven't done that well in the last month or so. Lot of guys look(ed) like they're hitting the wall. And outside of the top 4 guys in the lineup, I pretty much have no faith in anyone. Yeah, our bullpen is great, but who cares if you're always playing from behind. I think the Braves pretty much ran way above expectation with all those dramatic come from behind/last at bat victories. We all saw that link posted a few weeks ago with all the drama the Braves have pulled this year. What makes it so memorable is just how against the odds it is to have that many wins like that. I think that was just positive variance and not really a true indicator of what we are capable of. We shall see. I really hope I'm wrong but this feels like a major letdown in the NLDS coming after we sweat out our first ever Wildcard.

I don't see any reason why the Phillies should be any more worried about the Braves than any of the other contenders.

Not to mention, a common argument is "the Phils didn't face one of our top two" this series.

Well, Lowe is # 2.

He's 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA vs Philly this year.

His start would also be on the road.

TD & I spoke about this earlier.

ATL (and every other NL team) is a HUGE dog vs Philly. We are better than 2008 and 2009....when we won the NLCS CONVINCINGLY 4 games to 1

I'm a Phils fan but won't EVER troll your thread. That's just gay. I prefer fun talk (backed by facts).

I'm just piggybacking on your point.

I respect the Braves more than any other NL team.

I don't know. We've beaten good teams all year long. We took 2/3 from Tampa Bay, 2/3 @ Minnesota, and played the Phillies real well this series despite being swept. We owned everyone in the NL West except @ Colorado. We played the Reds real well too in their ballpark. At the end of the day if we win the wildcard we will be a 91-95 win team. We have a bonified ace and one of the best bullpens in MLB. To think we don't have a legit shot at winning any series is silly.

I don't know what the line would be in a Philly/Braves NLCS but I doubt we'd be less than 40% to win. I just don't think there is that much of an edge for any team in MLB playoffs.

Also Pippen33, it is actually more likely Lowe would pitch game 3/7 of the NLCS if we played Philly.

I mean it's laughable that Philly fans are already locking up the NL Pennant on the merits of "we are better now than we were in 2008 and 2009!". That obviously will have nothing to do with you winning the NL Pennant.

There is also a huge upside to getting into the playoffs aside from the fact you can lucksack a championship every now and then. It'd be nice to get some playoff experience for this group, as they will be formidable for years to come.

FYI-Anybody else that is planning on going to the Oct 2nd (Bobby Cox ceremony) game, I just found out that it got moved to a 4:10 start.

wtf...that's the saturday game right?

I'll bet we are better than a 60-40 in a Braves series (NLCS).

I'm still not scared of Lowe if it's game 2...or 3/7

I'm not saying we have locked up the NL pennant. You may be referring to others but my posts don't reflect that. I will say we are a CLEAR fav. Those who don't say we are a CLEAR fav (note: the fav is OFTEN upset...I'll admit that in a heartbeat) is delusional.

Of course you are the favorite to win the NL pennant. Right now it looks like it's +122 Philly winning the pennant on wsex.com futures. That means that that sports book thinks you will win the pennant 45% of the time. I think that piece of information would be shocking to most everyone in the Phillies thread. I think the consensus in that thread would probably have the Phillies at 75-80% to win the NL pennant. You guys know your team better than anyone I would assume so you all should be LOADING UP at that line.

Re: Lowe

Well Game 3 would be in ATL, not on the road...and Game 7 would be, well Game 7...seen a few crazy thing happen in Game 7's.

Re: Braves/Phillies NLCS

I have no interest in betting on what the line would be, but if it ends up being the Braves vs. Phillies in the NLCS and the Pinnacle line is Braves +150 or higher I'll definitely put a bunch of money on the Bravos.

I am VERY MUCH a realistic baseball fan and we def have similar opinions...

but I'll bet the Phils all day IF we face off in the NLCS.

In looking at your posts, you play some nice/big time MTT. I'd still bet 100-ish. I'll escrow to you. I don't care.

We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

I'm not some ATL hater and def respect your opinions....it'll be more of a fun bet.

Again, best of luck in all games not involving the Philadelphia Phillies

Ok brother you got it, hit me up if we meet in the NLCS.

In the meantime the Braves need to listen to Coach Al Pacino:

I most certainly will....

But I hope to only see your name in MTT sweat threads.

Obv hoping for

Phils >>>> SD/SF
Reds >>>> SD/SF

Phils >>>> Cincy 4-1 (like this is EVER closer than that).

Yeah, apparently Fox picked up it or some such ****.

If the Phils are 100% to get into the playoffs and ~45% to win the pennant, then they are about ~67% to win each series. That seems about right to me.

I was about to say this.

45% to win something among four contenders is a big favorite. I assume the upset potential is higher in the first series, as well.

Not commenting on whether we will be let down in the NLDS or not (I don't think we'll be favored against whomever we play), I think you are overstating a bit here. If you had said at the beginning of the year that KK would be pretty awful, McLouth would be nicknamed McOUT and spend a significant portion of the season in AAA, JJ would miss roughly half the season, Chipper would have a season ending injury, our replacement of KK would have a season ending injury, and pretty much every trade we made would perform below expectation, I would have said 80 wins is an excellent goal for the year.

And I know there have abeen a lot of ridiculous last minute hits and so forth, but the important thing over the long run is margin of victory and runs scored/allowed, and by that measure we still lead Philly.

And anyways, I don't care if we make the playoffs and crap out in a three game sweep--it's a hell of a lot better than not making it. There would still be a "Braves are back" sentiment around town, whereas if we blow it 2010 will just be remembered as another mediocre year from a team that's trying to restore itself, and only a few of us will point out in half a dozen seasons that we were actually halfway decent this year.

Long run I think we're one of the top 5 teams in the NL using a blended roster over the course of the whole season. Right now, with our current roster, I'm a lot less sure.

nervous about riots in atlanta if tech loses to nc st, uga to miss state, and the braves get ko'd

it'll be almost as bad as when they shut the water off in a couple years

You know what I meant smartace.

Yeh I was. He looked worse than any LF I've ever seen play the position during this series, and we have Ibanez in left. And yeh I was pretty aware that his GG was pretty egregious and I remember 2+2 loling pretty hard at it.

i must have been way too spoiled watching Andruw play CF for so many years, bc at this point bad outfield play just tilts me so hard it makes me never want to see Nate/Melky in a Braves uniform again after this year (obv they will both be back in all likelihood).

Last night's scores went our way for sure.

Right now we're tied with SF, have one more win with SD, and we must beat at least one of them to get the WC. And they play a three game series.

Can't really ask for a better opportunity than this.

so this weekend SF plays at COL and SD has Cincy at home while we play the nats.

The next 3 days should be good to us. Hopefully we don't **** it up