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Old 11-30-2020, 02:32 PM   #1
BilldaCat
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Survivor week 13 and on planning (point based, 3 strikes)

I'm sitting tied for 19th place.

Prizes: $2000 / $1000 / $550
Longest streak without a missed pick: $400

In short, you get 3 strikes and your point total is frozen - you're still in the pool and your accumulated points count, but you can't make further picks. I have 0 strikes. Each team has point values, from 32 (WAS) to 1 (KC).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I've been playing it fairly safe, and while I'm one of 3 people left with 0 strikes (9 with 1 strike, 2 with 39, 108 3 strikes and can't gain further points), I'm not sure if I can catch up. Debating just going for the longest streak or making a move for the 2k.

PICKED - NE, CLE, TB, LAR, ARZ, MIA, BUF, PHI, PIT, LV, LAC, NYG

Week 13 - obvious picks that are valid for me (not previously chosen)

CHI (19 points) vs DET

DET (25) vs CHI - hope rest of the field picks Chicago and they lose. vast majority of the players in front of me have already taken Detroit and can't pick them).

MIN (12) vs JAX (hope people botch the Bears/Lions game and get knocked out)

that's really about it.

Week 14:
CAR (28) vs DEN - seems like the slam dunk option. maybe a 1/3rd of the field in front of me has already chosen CAR, but not the biggest threat - the guy 24 points in front of me with also 0 strikes (2nd in pool) -- so i'd be unlikely to gain ground here.

CHI (19) vs HOU if I don't take them week 13
CIN (30) vs DAL? ugh

Week 15:
IND (14) vs HOU :\

this is just an out and out ugly week.

Week 16:
CAR (28) vs WSH (if not taken week 14)
WAS (32) vs CAR :\
CHI (19) vs JAX (if not taken week 13 or 14)

Week 17:
pointless to think about without knowing who is sitting starters


I feel like I've boxed myself in here, and aside from the immediate DET vs CHI game in week 13 where I can pick DET and hope the field picks CHI, I'm not seeing where I can zag when the rest of the field zigs to make up ground. Not enough of the field has picked CAR and will use them either in week 14 or 16.

Actually almost would have been better off with a NYG loss yesterday, as it would have knocked out a ton of potential competition. ugh.
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Old 11-30-2020, 02:33 PM   #2
BilldaCat
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Re: Survivor week 13 and on planning (point based, 3 strikes)

As an aside, this pool format is a ton of fun - highly encourage others to try it and if there's enough interest, running a 2p2 one in 2021.
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Old 12-01-2020, 10:53 PM   #3
g-bebe
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Re: Survivor week 13 and on planning (point based, 3 strikes)

This is a very interesting pool format. Obviously vastly more fun with 50+ entrants.

Don't have much to add on the picks. I think you sit on WFT for week 17, if you want a shot at top prize surely you'll need to use them.

You could just pick decent favs and hope for upsets that knock out the 1 or 2 strikers.
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