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Soccer (EPL/CL/MLS etc) DFS Thread Soccer (EPL/CL/MLS etc) DFS Thread

12-03-2014 , 06:12 PM
actually profited more than yesterday despite not having aguero, so pretty solid day in the end
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12-03-2014 , 06:15 PM
Im probably playing too many gpps and should use 2lu for cash instead of 1 very swingy. Still up 2k lifetime. But have been beeak even last month.
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12-03-2014 , 06:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wAzZu24
actually profited more than yesterday despite not having aguero, so pretty solid day in the end
What did you play? How is that possible?
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12-03-2014 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LFC_USA
What did you play? How is that possible?
Mostly cash, only 2 gpps. Did not go hard into gpps today at all. Cashed both gpps for min(maybe 1 pay jump in the $27). I had 10 entries in 50/50s and 24 h2hs.

I used the lineup I posted ITT in everything but one gpp, scored 105.25.

Cashed all 10 50/50s and was 22-2 in h2h.
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12-03-2014 , 08:01 PM
Sanchez is the GOAT. Arsenal pretty lucky to get that win though, but right now they are just miles behind City and Chelsea. Today's slate was super weird, got tanked with so many tournie lineups that were decent but the distribution between cashing and first place was very small and all down to similar players, makes sense with a 4 game slate with 3 potential large goal hauls and very well known teams. Would have been cool to do a Tues/Wed slate as well as the 2 seperate ones, but not sure what that does to prize pools. Really have no idea why they didn't raise GPPS on wed after everything filled Tuesday and with Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City all playing. Just doesn't make sense.
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12-03-2014 , 10:03 PM
Arsenal have run significantly below expectation and all statistical models have them on par with chelsea/city. They are probably a good 10+ pts under expectation for how matches went.
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12-03-2014 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Main mistake in cash was nit dropping yaya. It didnt click that jovetic playin meant yaya would be further back and he gets not production in that role. If I drop him I pick up drogs or mirallas and upgrade monreal to any of the 4.5k+ guys and am sitting pretty.

Jovetic was still the clear play over aguero.
Yaya and too many gpps are the reason I didn't profit today. Cashed in all my 50/50s. Had Drog, Aguero, Mirallas. so probably should have crushed.

I don't understand your comment about yaya's position. Jovetic has been playing every game. The lineup has basically been the same for weeks, so all of yaya's big games recently have come from this position.
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12-03-2014 , 10:42 PM
Wat no. Almost all year city playing 4222 and yaya has suffered with production playing deeper. He breifly got moved up playing behind striker with the ferns behind him(4231) or lampard paired with one and his production went way up.
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12-03-2014 , 11:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Arsenal have run significantly below expectation and all statistical models have them on par with chelsea/city. They are probably a good 10+ pts under expectation for how matches went.
Are you saying that Arsenal are on par as a team with Chelsea/City? I'd be happy to bet against that statistical model for games going forward. Statistical models don't tell the whole story by any means.
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12-04-2014 , 08:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by silkyjonson
Are you saying that Arsenal are on par as a team with Chelsea/City? I'd be happy to bet against that statistical model for games going forward. Statistical models don't tell the whole story by any means.
In a vacuum with no injuries they are pretty close
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12-04-2014 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by silkyjonson
Are you saying that Arsenal are on par as a team with Chelsea/City? I'd be happy to bet against that statistical model for games going forward. Statistical models don't tell the whole story by any means.
Ill work up a handicap for pt total for rest of season vs either of those two if you are interested.
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12-04-2014 , 12:19 PM
Mondogoal done with the freeroll and guaranteed games?
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12-04-2014 , 01:11 PM
Doubt it, prob be up soon. Prob delayed due to mid week stuff
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12-04-2014 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Ill work up a handicap for pt total for rest of season vs either of those two if you are interested.
I'm interested. Without injuries Arsenal would be much closer, but that is a constant within the Arsenal squad unfortunately and can't be discounted.
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12-04-2014 , 05:10 PM
Looking at numbers predictions are like arsenal +3.5 vs city and +4.5 vs chelsea. From now till end of season.
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12-04-2014 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Looking at numbers predictions are like arsenal +3.5 vs city and +4.5 vs chelsea. From now till end of season.
4.5 pts is not pretty close imo. Chelsea is above expectation, Arsenal is below expectation and you are arguing that they are pretty close. So +4.5 is not what you are arguing imo, or you didn't phrase your argument very well. There is a chance that Chelsea may be clear latish in the season and unless they are undefeated will have no motivation to wear their players down, whereas Arsenal will most likely be in a race for the top 4 or at minimum 3rd for automatic CL qualification which also will skew results out of a vacuum.
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12-04-2014 , 05:25 PM
So if Chelsea is above expectation, Arsenal is below and the gap is 13 points then it makes sense that we can bet from now until the end of the season at no handicap if you'd like.
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12-04-2014 , 07:39 PM
Our definitions of what on par is must be grossly different then. Over an entire season given how much variance there is id consider anything less ~6 or so points on par. 4 pts is the diff a hybrid xG model I came across has and my initial inclination was 3.5 so that basically confirmed what I believed so if I take midel side 4.5 is the correct handicap.

Theres no world id ever give you no handicap.
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12-04-2014 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Our definitions of what on par is must be grossly different then. Over an entire season given how much variance there is id consider anything less ~6 or so points on par. 4 pts is the diff a hybrid xG model I came across has and my initial inclination was 3.5 so that basically confirmed what I believed so if I take midel side 4.5 is the correct handicap.

Theres no world id ever give you no handicap.
So you're saying they aren't on par then, could have just said that in the beginning. Saying 6 pts can be attributed to variance is fine, but you think you can correct your side for variance by getting 4 pts? LOL no, if they are on par you bet at 0 handicapp then can whine about variance afterwards.
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12-04-2014 , 09:57 PM
Not going to bet no handicap when I can get one easily in the epl thread. Just lighting equity on fire.
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12-04-2014 , 10:38 PM
I don't blame you, doesn't make sense to bet no handicap when you can get action with a handicap. I'm an Arsenal fan fyi and am on board with the way they play I just think that Chelsea and Man City have a much better/deeper squad and Chelsea specifically are much better at adjusting tactically in games.
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12-06-2014 , 10:16 AM
all the jozy obv
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12-06-2014 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wAzZu24
all the jozy obv
lock of the day here.

man, idk why, but i'm having a much harder time feeling good about my cash lineup today than the last few weeks. might look like a clown today.
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12-06-2014 , 10:35 AM
slate kinda sucks imo. lack of good options
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12-06-2014 , 10:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mw828
lock of the day here.

man, idk why, but i'm having a much harder time feeling good about my cash lineup today than the last few weeks. might look like a clown today.
Yea got a couple random names in my lineup. Also have h2h's with some 2+2ers
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