I'll donate some money to you too to keep the site going. You're blog is very helpful. I feel pretty confident in soccer, but you're blog is good to confirm a lot of my thoughts and find a diamond in the rough or a good spot at a position I'm struggling to find value in. Mahrez helped me get my first big win (which would have been huge if Baines made his ****ing penalty!) which allowed to be more creative/expansive with my bets, so at the very least I owe you for that

So they give you 2-3.5% of whatever I buy in for? So you're really only getting anything worthwhile if someone is a high roller? And whether they win or not doesn't affect referral $?

Ya it only becomes significant if ppl I refer play high volume. What referrals win means nothing.

My thought process was if I give good advice my referrals will win money, if they win money they will play more.

Had a long chat with a friend of mine who was a top hu limit poker pro for a while, and he said my site is basically the worst thing I could do for myself profit wise. Said its the same reason he quit making poker vids and he was getting anywhere between 300-1k a vid. As I start to play higher and higher stakes it just becomes massively -ev to give away as much info as I am. Im literally giving everyone the info I spent hours gathering and all but telling them the exact lus im using.

So I'll need to strike a balance between helping ppl and protecting myself. I may shift to more general/macro strategy posts and only keep specific plays to post weekend reviews.

I also may gear my site more towards my predictive model for matches as im really fascinated by that aspect of things. Next step is to use a poisson distribution for score probabilities for every match.

For those who did sign up through me I definitely will find something to make it worth your while, and largely want to wait for mondogoal to pick up since im in on the ground floor there as an affiliate. With dk everyone already has accts so it will be near impossible to get a market share for them for new sign ups.

Maybe in overrating how valuable the info im giving away is, but for how much effort I put into it still feels like im not getting a good enough return outside of what I make actually playing.

Now I feel bad that I beat you in the h2h

And that was in a week with no blog!

If you do decide to keep your blog open for people who used your link I'd love to keep reading it. I'll agree to not enter any of the major contests that you're in or something like that if you want. I also feel like I have some good advice to offer and someone good to bounce ideas off. We've both had some pretty good success. I'm never gonna be doing the $200 GPPs and stuff like that. I'm small stakes with a ceiling of mid-stakes.

But I completely get where you're coming from, so obviously respect whatever decision you make.

I'm not into Mondogoal at all really. Their scoring is incredibly subjective, and the site is completely disorganized. Even though it was only a $5 game, their site clearly states that if a competition doesn't fill (this was a 5-team competition) then it is void. I emailed them and no one ever responded to me. I was without a computer last weekend, but this weekend I'll find all the 0/5's 1/5's right before kickoff and join them and see if they pay out.

Draftkings is much more organized and quite frankly more fun. I do have $74 in my Mondogoal account so I'll probably play it through, just won't spend a lot of time there

Dont worry about avoiding me i really don't care. I mostly am playing GPPs actually anyway. Higher variance, but I'm seeing a better ROI. I'm winning head 2 heads at an 80% clip though so thats nice.

I feel there is more exposure into picking the key players now. It seems like the majority of players have caught up on the must pick players like Baines, Di maria and so forth.
Our window of opportunity of picking value players is very narrow. Rotogrinders does a good job of previewing the epl dk fantasy games.
But one thing about the premier league is teams and players will have their usual bad ran of form esp during winter. Mane, Sakho, Tadic, all of these in form players aren't going to play like this all season long. The key is going to be when to start to fade them and jump on other undervalued players.

I feel the same way about Mondogoal. The site's offering is very disappointing so far. They could learn a thing or two from Draft kings dfs offerings. For a site that allows players from all over the world, their contest offerings are just underwhelming. They should ask current users to fill out a survey on whether or not they are satisfied with the scoring system or the game offerings. I am sure most people aren't happy with the current system in hand esp if they are playing on other fantasy soccer sites.

I much prefer Mondogoals scoring. They are a pretty new startup and are getting their feet on the ground. I'm in consistent contact with their VP of marketing who worked at draft kings previously. I agree it is a little frustrating, but definitely think it has potentials if they implement some of the right things (late swap most important for QoS). From what I've been told they've put some improvements on the back burner since they are working on some big partner ships.

We're basically getting $500 of overlay a week so there's no reason not to try to get that free money while you can. After this weekend I'll already be like +200 $ on their site. Cashouts are a little slower than DK, but my second one was WAYYYYY faster than the first.

I really dislike this slate. Popular teams at home vs weak teams is miserable as everyone will be on them (rightfully so). Extremely unlikely that arse and chelski score less than two goals a piece.

Impossible not to start curtois or woj this week. Looking for a cheeky defender play. Even with burnley sure to leak goals is trippier still a legit play?

There's like 8 midfielders that I want to play that are relatively good value. I think fading the chelsea arsenal midfielders would normally represent good value but Ramsey and Santi are so cheap

Fading arsenal and chelsea at home against relegation fodder is a good idea never.

There are a ton of things that depend on rotation and injuries this week for me for gpp. Cash game lineups fairly set.

Basically everyone will have arse and chelsea exposure. Alot depends on costa starting. Its actually a good thing if he starts since that completely destroys possible stacks that you could have if you can save money with drogs. Will be about who pairs them best with the other games.

The other wrinkle is if walcott starts and that presents a very similar situation.

Other option is to go completely contrarion and go for everton instead and hope some serious bus parking pays off in the arse chelsea games.

Courtois and sz are good for cash but not good gpp picks.

Walcott put in a ton of crosses making him a must play? Never had him available in dfs before

And what's the logic behind not playing curtois and woj in gpp? They're both all but guaranteed a win and likely for a clean sheet. Not a ton of saves available I guess but I'd want those points and get my variance from other parts of the lineup. Unless you've been identifying big save guys that are racking up points getting bombarded. For me I think part of that is I don't trust their scoring system for saves

Gks do not have a high ceiling, nor do defenders.

To win gpps you need way more pts than cash games. Hence save money where the variance of scoring potential isnt as high.

Man fridays pretty much feel like christmas eve with fantasy. I actually have stopped going out and boozing so I can get up early on sats. Next two months have a boat load of vaca days so I may just take off random tues/weds for cl.

DFS slate doesn't start til 11am tomorrow with the time change, so go out and have a drink tonight

**** that, need to get up for lolplop.

I'm considering fading tadic and going 2 stud forwards for cash. Someone tell me I am dumb

You arent crazy.

My general rule of thumb has been go baines and tadic. As of now fading both. Likely just going chalk with Chelsea Dstack and some value midfielders with Sanchez and bony

Are we talking cash or gpp.

Cash of course. Well it will go in a gpp also but every lineup gets some gpp love

With mccarthy and coleman back im not touching any forwards playing away at goodison. Tadic price too high and there are better options considering chelsea arsenal exposure is a must. At face value che qpr should be a blowout. However chelsea has only scored in one of last 4 league matches vs qpr and qpr has looked pretty decent past few games (soton away, pool home, villa home). That gives me some pause esp with costa being 13k. If drogba starts then its fine and easy to load up.

Sanchez seems like a turbo fist pump lock from now till he goes over 12k while ozil is out.

I'm not playing Tadic tomorrow fwiw. Not that I'm anyone worth listening too. Think I'm gonna roll the dice with Leicester tomorrow in gpps

I hope costa starts so ppl cant blindly stack chelsea.