If you know there are differences in scoring on each site, you need to optimise lineups for each site...

If the DK scoring was for SUCCESSFUL crosses then there's a chance I would listen to your point

I'm trying to approximate the chance of a clean sheet when knowing the expected numbers of goals to be conceded (in the EPL), or conversely. Obviously I'm not asking for a super complicated super precise model, just a very rough sanity-check type thing. But I'm coming up blank. Pointers anybody?

I wish I could help on this. I have few people on a closed FB group who share their models, but is mainly for midfielders and strikers.

This is always a very good summation on odds for gameweeks. Worth a bookmark. Clean sheets are hard to pin point this season.

http://www.toddstake.com/2016/02/05/7144/

Yes, my varying line-up's are fine. I been playing DFS for six seasons across all sites. Horses for courses they say for a reason. One's favourite place could be another's downer. Good luck with the weekend picks, we discussed this to the bone now.

If you know expected goals you can run a poisson distribution in excel and sum the %'s for possible x-0 scorelines. Poisson has it's deficiencies but it is pretty decent. There is a ton of information online about poisson and soccer so just poke around.

Pinnacle is my go to, lots of good articles on there (Inc ones about Poisson). You can also find clean sheet odds offered at some of the bookies if you want a lazier approach and tbh if you just want to know win% and cs % it's not worth making your own model for that, just let the bookies do the work for you.

Kay thanks!

Sure, my point is to be able to compare the expected goals I'm computing at home with the CS odds given at my favorite bookie and see if it fits.

Yea well a basic poisson model should be close enough unless you want to actually try and find spots to beat the bookies

The main downside with Poisson's is it tends to over rate 1-0 and underrate 1-1, 0-0.

Yep it does, hence:

Kool, entered my team now.

Yeah dont worry I am sure I will have some astute subs, they usually outscore my first 11. Mahrez got like 14 points last wk and was my first sub. Wk before I played Mahrez and Dele Alli was my 1st sub and got a ton of points.

Yeah I checked out the FantasyBet blog and got it bookmarked.

Ive got lineups for FantasyBet and DK this wk end so think I will stick with 2 sites for now. Its already confusing my brain picking some players on DK who are useless on Fantasy Premier League.

Ive read some articles on BR management and Cash vs GPPs etc. Some general advice seems to be not to bet more than 10% of your roll in one go and to place a few smaller bets rather than one big one to tackle variance better.

Think I will enter 4 or 5 lineups in GPPs for around the $1 to $3 mark and maybe a couple cash games just to get a feel for things. Dont want to have too much action though cos gonna need to edit lineups on my iphone until they get desktop access sorted in the UK.

gl

Br management is grossly overrated. If you have a job and can put money into your account you can be aggressive. Obv don't put yourself in a situation where you are playing with rent/food money tho.

Bank roll management is essential and again it is up to the individual to show discipline like most other things we need to master.

Aesop's fable are classic for a reason and this one can be applied in DFS too. Which one are you ? Which one do the sites want you to be ? The Tortoise or the Hare ? You decide.

The Tortoise and the Hare
an Aesop Fable

One day a hare was bragging about how fast he could run. He bragged and bragged and even laughed at the tortoise, who was so slow. The tortoise stretched out his long neck and challenged the hare to a race, which, of course, made the hare laugh.

"My, my, what a joke!" thought the hare.
"A race, indeed, a race. Oh! what fun! My, my! a race, of course, Mr. Tortoise, we shall race!" said the hare.

The forest animals met and mapped out the course. The race begun, and the hare, being such a swift runner, soon left the tortoise far behind. About halfway through the course, it occurred to the hare that he had plenty of time to beat the slow trodden tortoise.

"Oh, my!" thought the hare, "I have plenty of time to play in the meadow here."
And so he did.

After the hare finished playing, he decided that he had time to take a little nap.
"I have plenty of time to beat that tortoise," he thought. And he cuddle up against a tree and dozed.

The tortoise, in the meantime, continued to plod on, albeit, it ever so slowly. He never stopped, but took one good step after another.

Tortoise and Hare

The hare finally woke from his nap. "Time to get going," he thought. And off he went faster than he had ever run before! He dashed as quickly as anyone ever could up to the finish line, where he met the tortoise, who was patiently awaiting his arrival.

I find Pinnacle's article so good and have to rub my eyes that it is not behind a pay wall. Informative, educational and in-depth analysis.

If we come out of the narrow confines of playing DFS and competing for prizes. Topics like randomness, game theory, psychological illusion are very interesting.

This interview with Daniel Kahneman author of Thinking, Fast and Slow is just brilliant for anyone that thinks they can predict well and work our probabilities for events.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/bet...e-your-betting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWaIE6u3wvw

I'm having the same problem with GBP. USD working fine though.

I had the same problem, I was able to edit my shell lineup by going to:

My Entries > Click on a Late start Entry > Scroll down to "Edit" button.

This will allow you to edit, but still will not show. However, you can use the same method to check that the changes were saved, they were for me.

HAPPY SEAT HUNTING!

Yes, that works, provided you have entered you teams directly via a contest page, not via "Create Lineup". Also, it's very inefficient, given that you cannot name your entries, so how do you distinguish easily between several teams entered in the same contest; and each team appears multiple times in that list (as many times as you have entered it).

EDIT

I just realized that all lineups created in £ for the saturday late slate are actually considered $ lineups (they appear in the MyLineups tab of the $ part of the website, and can be entered in $ contests there). Damn.

Also, are there really no guaranteed contests in $ on mondo for this week-end?? Given that unguaranteed contests never fill afaik, are HU (maybe 6-man) contests the only thing running in the $ part of site??

Yeah I've read those three books and would highly recommend them, particularly 'Thinking Fast and Slow'.

Had the same issues with Mondogoal lineups last night as well, didn't bother to try and sort it out though. Will properly give it a go later.

If you aren't a winning player brm doesn't matter since you'll lose it all anyway. If you are a winning player you should be willing to go more aggressive so you can make more money. Risk of ruin only becomes relevant when you can't afford to lose what you're playing.

Most Ppl will say okay this $200 is my bankroll. Well guess what if they lose that they'll probably go oh well I'll just deposit more. So their bankroll was actually more than $200. Only time I'd advocate any sort of brm is if Dfs is your sole source of income and if you bust then it's life ruining. Even then if you have a huge edge you should still be willing to be aggro.

In advantage gaming edges go away fast esp in something like dfs. More important to put the pedal to the metal and go ham so you can make the most possible while the big edges still exist.

Please stop talking DS

Lawlz

Why done the people in here just play H2H on DK to settle differences?

Is anyone having problem loading teams on mondogoal?
I put a couple of teams for today's global game tourney, it isn't showing up under my entries.

see previous page. Support has been utterly silent for me, maybe they'll react to more complaints?

Still getting the same problems so sent them an email as well.
Pretty sick if it stays like that and everyone who is already entered gets insane overlay.