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Soccer (EPL/CL/MLS etc) DFS Thread Soccer (EPL/CL/MLS etc) DFS Thread

02-09-2016 , 02:49 PM
The currency translation is a bit of an annoyance, but if you're good enough you will cover it instantly... Especially with the deposit bonus?
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02-09-2016 , 03:02 PM
2 yrs today since man u had 81 crosses v fulham. Imagine stacking all those players in DK!
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02-09-2016 , 03:34 PM
Plus 10 corners!
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02-09-2016 , 06:45 PM
lol, 131 pts for shots+crosses+corners for one team
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02-10-2016 , 06:48 AM
Anyone know where we can download DraftKings salary info for this weekends games? Cannot do it from the app as a uk player :/
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02-10-2016 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Badboi4321
Anyone know where we can download DraftKings salary info for this weekends games? Cannot do it from the app as a uk player :/
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/20689796
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02-10-2016 , 08:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Ya, things like not playing trippier are the type of things I expect the new guys to from the uk to do and get smoked because of.
Pretty new to this, but have been working a bit with stats and trying to build a model. Unfortunately I would never have considered picking Trippier this week.

When I look at him, I see that he has started three games so far and has only performed well in one of them. I feel completely lost when I see a lot of great players having him on their teams. Could anyone please give me a hint to what I should be looking at to not miss such a good pick in the future?
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02-10-2016 , 09:41 AM
I had been thinking about getting into DFS. I entered a team in the freeroll on FantasyBet on Saturday and cashed in 13th place. Had Mahrez as my 1st sub which prob cost me the win by not playing him.

Usually play the fantasy premier league:

Season - Points - Rank
2010/11 - 1969 - 131,060
2011/12 - 2009 - 149,291
2012/13 - 2202 - 12,362
2013/14 - 2383 - 15,314
2014/15 - 1981 - 267,042 (felt I run bad that season)

Got the news that Draft Kings had landed in the UK on Sat. I was sitting 7th in the freeroll after a good start in the Arsenal game but ended up with a poor finish due to not knowing much about how the scoring worked. But looking forward to getting started.

Trying to make my £400 deposit just now via PayPal and it is taking ages. Been checking my location for around 20 mins.

Found a few sites offering projected scoring etc for players, but think I seen DuckSauce advising on here that its more +EV to do the math ourselves.

Hopefully get my first deposit done soon and looking forward to getting full web access here in the UK as its kinda difficult just using the app. Lets goooo, gl everyone
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02-10-2016 , 10:20 AM
Looking to get into DFS, have a past history in poker and pro gambling.

What kinda key indicators should I be focusing apart from the obvious of expected goals, expected assists etc.??
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02-10-2016 , 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeman144
Looking to get into DFS, have a past history in poker and pro gambling.

What kinda key indicators should I be focusing apart from the obvious of expected goals, expected assists etc.??

Look at the scoring on the site you play on, go from there
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02-10-2016 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calpeman
Pretty new to this, but have been working a bit with stats and trying to build a model. Unfortunately I would never have considered picking Trippier this week.

When I look at him, I see that he has started three games so far and has only performed well in one of them. I feel completely lost when I see a lot of great players having him on their teams. Could anyone please give me a hint to what I should be looking at to not miss such a good pick in the future?
You make a good observation. Trippier was more of a punt play and it came through. On Gameweek 25 there was a lot of other options in defence who are regular starters and in good form. Luck plays a part in these games.

You just have to look at full backs, wingers, set-piece takers who cross a lot. In addition to the meat and potato of goals/assists.

I have checked the numbers for Gameweek 25, tackles won (1pt) and shots (1pt) hardly got into double digits. But you have crossers who can get into double digits. Erik Pieters had 11 crosses, the only difference is Trippier scored.

Personally think cross should be scored at 0.5. As it is it has disproportionate effect on the game. Maybe they will adjust in the summer for the new season.
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02-10-2016 , 04:53 PM
Trippier put in more crosses than any other Premier League player in 2014/15 and also took 82 corners. He was at Burnley then though and despite a great performance at the weekend he's likely to be replaced by Kyle Walker for the City clash ... this is where the 'late swap' is vital.
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02-10-2016 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SootedPowa
Currency exchange rip off (uncapped as well!) on DraftKings UK stopping me losing my money to US sharks. Nevermind.

App thing sucks as well but that will be fixed in time. I will deposit if they stop ripping us on deposits/withdrawls.

Shame I had quite fancied learning this, I can imagine it's tough.
One way to go might be to just play free-roll's for a while. Build incremental bank roll from winnings and mitigate their rip-off deposit conversion.

In most sites this is how I do that. Good way to practicse the site's gameplay as well without any cost.

Problem with Draft Kings is the prize offers are much bigger than we have in the UK at the moment. So depositing to play paid entry is hard to resist.

Only a quarter of the sesaon left so I am looking at their game as practicse for next season. Build a decent sample size of contests played and assess after that.

Looking a crowded field now and we might have 15 to 20 DFS sites for football by start of next season.

Last edited by Garrincha67; 02-10-2016 at 05:13 PM.
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02-10-2016 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeman144
Looking to get into DFS, have a past history in poker and pro gambling.

What kinda key indicators should I be focusing apart from the obvious of expected goals, expected assists etc.??
I will try first to split the games like this:

1. Sites with very similar scoring like the FPL.

2. Sites that allow captaincy option.

3. Sites that allow subs bench or late swap.

4. Sites that use detailed scoring where you need 100 plus points scored to cash.

5. Sites have diverse league and competitions to play. Like - Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and international tournaments.

This really helps when assessing where to play and where an edge can be gained.
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02-10-2016 , 06:43 PM
Lol tripper being a "punt" play.
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02-10-2016 , 06:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Lol tripper being a "punt" play.
Absolutely, punt play in a sense he is not a regular starter. So on the free roll contest Trippier had 12.8 % ownership. If budget allowed I will have picked Eric Pieters myself.

So I had these players in defence whose scores overmatched their salary.

Bacuna (Aston Villa) scored 9.6 pts. Salary price of $3.6 and ownership at 11.6%

Oviedo (Everton) scored 11.5 pts. Salary price of $ 2.7 and ownership at 7.2 %.

Virgil Van Dijik (Southampton)scored 5.5 pts. Salary price of $2.8 and ownership at 5.8 %.

My flex positions was filled by two midfielders Sigurdsson and Khazari who scored a combined points of 49. Ownership at 14.8 % and 13.9 % respectively.

Hindsight is 20/20 in all things we do. But we can learn and improve after events. So willing to take constructive criticism on my drafting for the first time in DK's Game Week 25.
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02-10-2016 , 07:11 PM
That's not really what a punt play is. A punt is a high variance play, usually referring to cheap backup forwards or wingers who don't have much data or are potentially sub risks.

Fullbacks are rarely sub risks and fairly low variance, so tripper is completely the opposite of a punt.
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02-10-2016 , 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrincha67
One way to go might be to just play free-roll's for a while. Build incremental bank roll from winnings and mitigate their rip-off deposit conversion.
Yeah - and these are solid enough promotions. Still I refuse to pay 2% uncapped but that is just me. I appreciate someone good enough to beat the games for a lot of money would not care.


Quote:
Problem with Draft Kings is the prize offers are much bigger than we have in the UK at the moment. So depositing to play paid entry is hard to resist.
Yeah, DK looks good to me. I am hopeful they will just use the xe.com rates or at least allow conversion back and forth from GBP at the same rate both ways.

Quote:
Looking a crowded field now and we might have 15 to 20 DFS sites for football by start of next season.
Definately rooting for this, I want to learn a new game and start to dip my toe in. I think the market will expand as well. Hopefully a site or two will spring up where everything is pretty player friendly.
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02-10-2016 , 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
That's not really what a punt play is. A punt is a high variance play, usually referring to cheap backup forwards or wingers who don't have much data or are potentially sub risks.

Fullbacks are rarely sub risks and fairly low variance, so tripper is completely the opposite of a punt.
Have checked the Game Log for Trippier. Has only started 4 games this season.

Scoring 19.0, 9.0, 9.5 and 33.5 averaging 11.8. His salary now is $ 4.0.

While Eric Pieters who starts every game and overmatch his salary in every game is priced at $ 4.1. Pieters points score for 2016 are 13.5, 9.0, 12.5, 11.5, 9.5 and 12.5.

So DK game needs sorting in scoring, salary pricing and overall gameplay. For now it is lop-sided and will be difficult to gain any meaningful edge.

A high volume player can knock out so many multi-entries just filling it with all permutation for crossers included. I am sure this happens too.

Last edited by Garrincha67; 02-10-2016 at 07:32 PM.
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02-10-2016 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SootedPowa
Yeah - and these are solid enough promotions. Still I refuse to pay 2% uncapped but that is just me. I appreciate someone good enough to beat the games for a lot of money would not care.




Yeah, DK looks good to me. I am hopeful they will just use the xe.com rates or at least allow conversion back and forth from GBP at the same rate both ways.



Definately rooting for this, I want to learn a new game and start to dip my toe in. I think the market will expand as well. Hopefully a site or two will spring up where everything is pretty player friendly.
Yes, start of champions league knock out stages sees new sites spring up. Also big summer tournaments like World Cup and Euro. In the summer, months before start of the new season are obvious launch dates too.

I will share like I always do any new sites I come across. Most have low marketing budgets and could do with boost of new players.

The biggest one looks to be by Squawka and fascinated to see their game go live. They have the marketing budget and registered members to rival DK.

This was Squawka tweet from last week.

When you wake up to 500k followers...

Thanks for being a huge part of it, we couldn't have done it without you.


http://www.matchboss.com

These below are in the works too. Fan Duel will come soon following DK to the UK too.

http://matchdayfantasy.com

https://oneweekfantasy.co.uk

http://leaguesx.com

Last edited by Garrincha67; 02-10-2016 at 07:45 PM.
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02-10-2016 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrincha67
Have checked the Game Log for Trippier. Has only started 4 games this season.

Scoring 19.0, 9.0, 9.5 and 33.5 averaging 11.8. His salary now is $ 4.0.

While Eric Pieters who starts every game and overmatch his salary in every game is priced at $ 4.1. Pieters points score for 2016 are 13.5, 9.0, 12.5, 11.5, 9.5 and 12.5.

So DK game needs sorting in scoring, salary pricing and overall gameplay. For now it is lop-sided and will be difficult to gain any meaningful edge.

A high volume player can knock out so many multi-entries just filling it with all permutation for crossers included. I am sure this happens too.
You're still missing the majority of the reasons that make trip a good play besides the fact his projections and performance are better points / $ than Pieter's (trip cost 3.6k Pieter's was 4.1k that gw). That in and of itself makes it not even a remotely close decision before getting to the next set of factors that influence projections (which further skew in trips favor).
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02-10-2016 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
You're still missing the majority of the reasons that make trip a good play besides the fact his projections and performance are better points / $ than Pieter's (trip cost 3.6k Pieter's was 4.1k that gw). That in and of itself makes it not even a remotely close decision before getting to the next set of factors that influence projections (which further skew in trips favor).
You make valid points from an experienced DK players point of view. But these games grow by attracting new players depositing, playing and sticking around.

Once the novelty of DK games in the UK wears out, will be eager to see their number of sign-up's and crucially retention rate.

I am just trying to see it from the angle of a new player who has a variety of platform's to play in the UK market. As someone mentioned earlier, they played on Fantasy Bet first time and cashed. It makes sense as that is a game that will attract the most new players or those that mainly play FPL.

FantasyBet and Premier a Punt are the most profiled weekly games on fantasy football scout too. Says it all.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.u...p-gameweek-26/

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.u...p-gameweek-24/

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.u...p-gameweek-23/

Here is their review of DK's game and launch.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.u...ng-draftkings/
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02-10-2016 , 08:29 PM
Biggest prizepools will get the most players.
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02-10-2016 , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Biggest prizepools will get the most players.
Will be fascinating to see how it plays out in the coming seasons. It should be fun to see them compete to get customers.

The big hitters in the seasonal games are not taking it laying down either. They offering new weekly pick em up games for their thousands of seasonal players.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/fan...o-know....html

https://super6.skysports.com/landing...CMP=six_a_side

Let the battles commence.
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02-10-2016 , 11:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce
Biggest prizepools will get the most players.
Agree with this.

Plus DK and FD are gonna have huge budgets to market and promote their sites so I can see them having 90% of the market share. The smaller sites might get a niche following due to people preferring different point systems and maybe some pros bumunting them for weaker games.

Personally I would be a bit concerned about having any amount of cash on the smaller sites in case they start folding and disappearing.
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