Mine is a 12 man winner takes all league.

So, my goal is to maximise the probability I win.

Why do I want to pic bench players above starters? I plan to pick one bench player prior to kicker and def for insurance/bye weeks. If I'm taking bench players before my lineup is fully set, then I'm losing potential points per game to pay for insurance.

Well, one obvious reason is trading. Even if you're planning on none of your guys under-performing or getting injured, surely some other teams will have to deal with these issues, and at that time you can take advantage of their problems to improve your starters.

Also if the difference between drafting a qb in round 5 or round 10 is small enough, then surely the insurance/bye week help can be well worth it. Likewise with drafting a kicker in the 10th or last round, the difference in ev is minuscule enough (if there even is any difference) to make the insurance/bye week improvement basically free. Gostkowski was the consensus number 1 kicker to draft last year too, and he didn't even finish in the top 12, while many undrafted kickers scored more than him. Lol kickers is a thing for a reason...many reasons.

In addition one of these bench RBs or WRs you draft to your bench might blow up and become your starter, even if none of your drafted starters under-perform or get injured, which is worth way more than being able to have the first pick at predicting the kicker crapshoot.

My contention would be that picking a kicker and a defense that early is not maximizing the chances you win. Quite the opposite actually.

In short, because there is variance.

In addition to injuries/byes, you also want to draft bench players because you (and everyone else) aren't perfect at projecting which early round players will be the best-performing assets.

Of those players who you draft to be in your starting lineup for week 1, what % of them are also in your starting lineup for week 4? (Note there are no byes in week 4 this year). Even if there are no major injuries, almost no one can say the answer is 100%.

Does your league have playoffs? If so, how often does the 1-seed win the championship?

longtime friends league, competitive but not riddled with fantasy buffs.

14 team, 2 keepers (in lime green), half ppr
1QB/2RB/2WR/FLEX/TE/DEF/K

11 > 5 > 3

ahhh.

makes sense

2 > 13 > 14

Lot of Crappy teams there imo

thats what friends leagues are for

Indeed, so which one is you?

Im 5 and was quite pleased with how things shook out for me, especially considering my trash keepers and the amount of alcohol/drugs consumed.

Getting Hunt where I did, the Ware injury works huge in my favor. Have since picked up Charc West and Amendola which helps a bit too. Im aboard Mariota's and Parker's hype trains. Sanu gives me partial Julio insurance. Like Baldwin more than 6 guys drafted ahead of him. Dont like the Olsen pick, wish I waited for walker or henry. Whether by injury or favorable portion of timeshare, if just one of Ingram, Coleman, Rawls pans out well, I think Im in pretty good shape.

2>5>13

.5 PPR, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/D/K

I'm the 5 slot. I would have taken Theo in the 6th had i known Tyrell would have still been available in the 7th. Makes me take Lacy which I'm not too thrilled about. Still think I did ok.

Goofy one. 12 team standard 2rb/2wr/flex. Couple mistakes and a couple snipes away from crushing imo, still turned out ok I think.

8 Mike Evans, TB WR - Considered AJG, keep going back and forth on this one, but don't think there's a huge difference between them. Murray, Gordon, Howard there RB-wise.

17 Rob Gronkowski, NE TE - Prob shoulda taken Ajayi here given this was on ESPN where Kelce/Reed are buried in the ranks, but couldn't help myself

32 Dalvin Cook, Min RB - Sniped on Elliot. Debating between Cook, Hunt and DHop here, thought RB was more valuable in this setup and could prob get Hunt next round...which never seems to work out for me.

41 DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR - Hunt sniped pick before but got DHop thanks partially to one of the guys before me taking DJax lol

56 Allen Robinson, Jax WR - Kelce and Reed still available so could have had Ajayi/Kelce insted of Gronk/Arob...damn. Watkins, Diggs next wrs off the board, considered Tyreek as well.

65 Joe Mixon, Cin RB - Don't love his setup but never seen him available in the 6th round so I'll gamble at this point. Gillislee, CJA, AP, Gore next rbs off the board.

80 Martavis Bryant, Pit WR - Tyreek almost fell, but got sniped 2 picks away, pretty damn good consolation though

89 Ameer Abdullah, Det RB - Mariota and Cousins both still there and I was only one without qb so thought I had to take AA here given my RB situation. Perkins, Coleman next rbs off the board.

104 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB - Should've prob been less surpised that both qb's I was targeting got taken as backups in rd 9

113 Doug Martin, TB RB - Deciding between DMart and Henry, who is also buried on ESPN, so I thought he was more likely to fall to me next round.

128 Darren McFadden, Dal RB - Oops again, but also again not a bad consolation given it might take some time for Mixon to fully take over.

137 Thomas Rawls, Sea RB - Maybe should've taken Palmer here, but once again mistimed at qb

152 Tyler Lockett, Sea WR - Palmer picked one pick before

161 Rex Burkhead, NE RB - What the heck?

176 Panthers D/ST D/ST - 9ers/Bills seems like a good start

185 Dustin Hopkins, Wsh K - lol

Roster:

QB- Big Rape
RB- Cook, Mixon, Abdullah, DMart, DMC, Rawls, Burkhead
WR- Evans, DHop, ARob, Martavis, Lockett
TE- Gronk

Any thoughts/critiques are appreciated as always.

Great value on Martin, McFadden and Abdullah, IMO.

I think you got lucky to get sniped on Tyreek, since Martavis >>Tyreek, IMO.

I don't quite get the love for Cook, and I realize I am in the minority here. I think Hunt >> Cook. Minny run was awful. Last in yards and last in Y/A last year IIRC.

Not sure this guy is going to be able to fix that. Meanwhile in KC, whoever gets the touches looks good.

If Cook works out and Mixon cements the job, pretty solid. Tough to set your lineup in week 1 though. DMC & Abdullah at starting RB? Or are you going to try one of the rookies, or both?

Yeah I have Hunt over Cook too but got greedy thinking I could get them both and figured Hunt was more likely to make it back to me

Have Tyreek one spot ahead of Martavis in same tier so yeah that snipe was nbd to me.

I do think Cook will be solid though, their running game was indeed terrible last year, but their online had a lot of injuries and they picked up 2 decent run blocking tackles in free agency, plus Minny's schedule looks to be very easy vs the run, and I think he could do some damage in the passing game too.

Was planning on going Cook/DMC week 1.

Thanks for the feedback

Better team in 10 team PPR?

Team 1
Cousins
Bell, D. Cook, Abdullah, Henry
Bryant, Cooks, K. Allen, M. Bryant
Bennett

Team 2
Newton
DJ, Hunt, Ingram, Burkhead
D. Thomas, Tate, Diggs, T. Williams
Gronk

10 team PPR, 6 pt passing TD

QB - Brady (3)
RB - D Johnson (1)
RB - Hyde (5)
WR - Cooper (2)
WR - Jeffrey (4)
WR - Hill (6)
TE - Eifert (10)
Def - Vikings (14)
K - Janikowski (16)

Bench
Diggs (7)
Abdullah (8)
Martin (9)
Hogan (11)
Z Jones (12)
Ginn (13)
Rawls (15)

Assuming 2rb/3wr, I think the WR advantage of team 1 outweighs the Gronk advantage of team 2. Reasonably close though imo.

Hate the Brady pick, but it ended up working out quite well given all the value that fell to you. Nice job, def looks like a good league to be in

1 > 14... Don't really like any other teams

12-team PPR QB 2RB 2WR TE FLEX K D

This league you get to keep two players for three seasons drafted past the 4th round. So roughly 23 players were off the board before the draft started.

I kept DeVante Parker and had the 2nd pick overall.

2 - Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB
23 -Aaron Rodgers, GB QB
26 - Carlos Hyde, SF RB
47 - Tyreek Hill, KC WR
50 - Jordan Reed, Wsh TE
71 - Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR
74 - Martavis Bryant, Pit WR
95 - Thomas Rawls, Sea RB
98 - Marcus Mariota, Ten QB
119 - Giovani Bernard, Cin RB
122 - Chris Hogan, NE WR
143 - Darren Sproles, Phi RB
146 - Jaguars D/ST D/ST
167 - Cairo Santos, KC K
170 - DeVante Parker, Mia WR

Hard to say without knowing who was kept, who was available at each pick, and exactly what the keeper rules are (do you always get to keep for last pick, or for the round you pick them, or increasing cost, or what).

Hyde seems early, but maybe not. Rodgers was definitely a poor pick though, just look where you got Mariota (who I assume you only picked for keeper potential...otherwise seems like a waste).

Great value on Martavis and Hogan.

Drafting guys like Gio and Sproles seems pretty bad in this format since they have absolutely zero keeper potential.

Overall seems ok, but would be a lot better if you picked a RB or WR in round 2 over Rodgers. Hopefully you can cash in some of your WR depth for a WR1 or a RB2, it's always tough to move QB's, but I'd look to trade one of them too.

For every player you keep you lose one round above that pick next draft. So last year I picked up Parker of the wire and I lose my last round pick.

Agree with all of what you say. Thanks for the feedback. I was actually thinking of packaging Rodgers and Bryant for AJ Green. Good move?

10 Teams

2QB, 3RB, 4WR, TE, W/R/T, D, 8 Bench Spots

1PPR, 6-pt Passing TDs with -2 for INTs

https://clickydraft.com/draftapp/board/92621

1QB 2 RB 3WR 1TE K DE, standard scoring

$100 pro league on yahoo, I had pick 4. Only the 2nd draft I've done in like a decade. I screwed up the Winston pick-I liked him, but there was still a bunch of good QBs left-I got sniped on Powell and I didn't have anyone else lined up, if I didn't make a pick it would've auto drafted edelman. I'm going to try to trade a receiver for a back. I'm just going to stream defenses too, that's why I too buffalo's lol

Just did my first YPL (10 team standard) QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/DEF

Meh. Out of the 10 hole. Long wait between picks and tough to watch all of the guys you want disappear before they come back around. I hate RBs this year but think Freeman has value. Almost went Evans/AJ Green 1/2 instead. Hate the Abdullah pick and really wanted Powell but got sniped. I was happy with my patience on waiting for QB. Would have waited on TE too but at that point Reed looked like the best value to me.

Coulda went better and coulda gone worse. It looks like there were a fair number of morons in the draft but the guy who went DEF/K in rounds 9/10 will likely win.

http://www.virtualdraftboard.com/a/?...CD1CCEBF3F0546

looks like 5 is the only one who understood the league