Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
hey dudes,
How do you guys go about projecting pass attempts for a team/QB in a given matchup? Factoring in the expected score and the opponent of course. I feel like I've been burned with some good QBs against bad pass defenses who end up throwing the ball like half of their average. Any thoughts?
This season Brady has gone a lowest of 26, high of 45
Brees, 22-49
Mariota, 13-43
Carr, 21-58
Mahomes, 24-53
goff, 24-53 also.
Qb's achieving half their average is hard to do. Pretty unlucky to see that in a small sample of bets.
Over the last 5 years Brady has averaged 37 attempts per game. Roughly 74% of those games had between 30 and 44 attempts. The data over 5 years, consists of 77 games, it looks quite normally distributed. (not sure if it should be as making down allows you more opportunities and more downs, I guess if you arent making downs, you'll tend to throw rather than run too)
Using a simple normal distribution for Brady it looks like he will;
attempt 36 passes or more 46% of the time
37 or more 51%
38 or more 56%
39 or more 60.5%
40 or more 65%.
These %'s would change depending on your opposition, the most important thing is how often they occur relative to each other.
If your model says 37 is most likely and the bookie has o35.5, unless its a low Vig book, you will still lose.
75% of the time Brady gets from 30-44 attempts per game, how does that vary compared to game totals? Also you really want your model attempts to exceed the bookies line by 2.5+ attempts, unless you are getting a good price...... could be hard finding books that far off
As to building a model that works, I have no idea........