Again, I think the spread matters, but I don't care if a team is capable of covering, I just need them to win. Doesn't matter if it's by 10 or 2 (though I'd be massively more drunk if 2).

You said you think ATL is a really bad pick. Do you have any reason other than 13 > 3? If so, I have some pools I'd like you to join.

Also, as I said, I'll be pretty surprised if the line stays at 3. I'm thinking it winds up closer to 5.5.

I'm saying that generally higher spread/moneyline suggests higher win percentage. If you think higher spread/moneyline does not indicate higher win percentage, that's fine. But in that case you should be betting those that you think are wrong. And if you are indeed capable of doing that, you will win a lot of money and be very rich. The Vegas line is a much better predictor of win percentage than my amateur analysis and I believe that the VAST MAJORITY of people who think their analysis is better than the Vegas spread are wrong.

+1000000

If everyone is on the chargers and your pool is big, even the jags are a good option. there are better options than the jags, but if everyone is on a team, there are tons of good options.

I don't disagree that higher spreads or MLs imply higher win percentages, but there is more to an eliminator format than picking the game that will win this week the most often. Your goal for a suicide pool is to be able to pick every week. Picking games that you feel will be winners even if not the highest possible spread, is an acceptable risk to take since it may leave you in a stronger position in later weeks when you have more equity in the pool. The spread is not accounting for your unavailable teams (due to already being picked) nor for the future value of that team (since they can only be chosen once) in your pool, therefore, IMO, it is an imperfect tool for being the sole consideration of making eliminator picks.

EDIT: FWIW - I got ATL this week at -3 and locked it in nice and early.

This is an excellent point. If you were in a pool with 9 other people and you knew for sure they were all picking SD, you'd be correct to take JAC in a winner take all format. You're going to lose way more often than not, but based on the ML the market is offering, it would be a profitable play.

^ I think taking Pittsburgh would be more profitable. Someone can crunch the numbers.

I agree, but in the hypothetical, it was either SD or JAC.

Careful. While housenuts point is correct, you need to be aware of the number of people remaining in your pool.

Pinnacle Sports right now has:
JAC +671
SD -850

That translates to a no-vig win probability of 87.3% for SD and 12.7% for JAC. If you want to know to do that, look here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...rcentages.html

So if you are in a pool with 9 remaining people who all pick SD, and you also pick SD, your equity is 1/10 or 10%. If you pick JAC, then you will win 12.7% of the time which is higher than 10%. So yes, you are correct.

It gets more complicated when you don't know what your opponents are picking or if they don't all pick the same team. I've built my own spreadsheet that basically does what this website does: http://www.survivorgrid.com/. It factors in win% calculated based on moneylines, pick distributions collected from Yahoo and other sites, and future value. I then calculate my equity of each team and pick the one that has the highest equity.

Also, when I said everyone is on the Chargers, that was a hyperbole. Yahoo currently reports that 65% of people are on the Chargers. 14% on PIT and 12% on IND.

I don't usually fill in my spreadsheet until Sunday (or Thurs if that is one of the likely matchups) because I want to latest closing moneylines. I'm guessing that the lower win% of PIT/IND won't be enough to justify not taking SD this week. Maybe I will be wrong, but I will wait til Sunday to make my final pick.

San Fran looks appetizing. .22% picked, -245 win odds.

That's for week 3 lol. It usually gets updated on Wednesday.

No it's for week 4.

Someone talk me out of picking Indy this week. I can guarantee that 5 or 6 of the remaining players in my pool will be on SD, maybe even all of them. So picking Indy has to be the correct play, right?

How many remaining? Of the ones that don't pick SD, do you think they'd pick Indy? That would lower their value

8 remaining, including me. I do think there's a distinct possibility that one of them will pick Indy (say 50/50), thinking along the same lines as me. But I'd be surprised if it was more than one.

do you think someone else would take Pitt? Almost as big of a favourite as Indy

Honestly I don't. There are two that used Pitt in week 1, and one of them is the one that I think might not pick SD. The others were all on Phi week 1 and Pats week 3, which leads me to believe they'll keep riding the heavy favorite train. But who knows, I guess with this many unknowns it might be best to jump on the SD wagon?

I'm taking Indy this week hoping SD loses somehow. Plus SD has future value as others have said.

I'm on IND, ATL and PIT in order of preference.

I will not be surprised if PIT loses this game though.

ATL closed -6

****. I hate it when I'm right.

**** me. MIN posts highest offensive yardage in a decade. GFY ATL.

Lol at ever taking a road team in survivor

Lol at lol'ing at that