straight up - no point spread

Week One

It seems a lot of people are going for Indy against Oakland...

Other popular picks:

Denver - but against the Super Bowl Champs? Really?
NE - against Buffalo...seems like a good pick...but at Buffalo and against a new team...could be a spoiler here.
Pittsburgh - seems like a good pick against TENN at home

Sleeper Pick:

TB @ NYJ - If the Jets are as bad as we think they are, do we dare pick the Bucs in week one of a suicide pool? Risky bet...

What do you guys think?

Went with Colts...lock

I built a math based model in excel to help me pick each week because I'm a huge nerd. My model takes in 2 inputs: Pinnacle moneylines and yahoo's pick distribution percentages. Using the moneylines, I can calculate the fair win % for each game.

My EV is simple. (win% of the team I pick) * (1/number of people remaining after the current week)

Using yahoo's pick distribution percentages, I can assign a value to the number of people who would be eliminated if X team were to lose. For example, if there are 30 people in the pool, 47% of people are picking Indy, and Indy has a 21% chance to lose, I can guess that 30*.47*.21=2.96 people will be eliminated this week. Do that for every team except the one you pick. Once I figure that out, I have a guess to how many people will be left after this week.

The biggest hole in this model is that it does not look ahead AT ALL. None whatsoever. It's purely the best pick for this week only.

My model ranks the best picks this week in the following order.
1. NE
2. DEN
3. IND
4. PIT
5. SF

is problem

Or, you could just use this site. ;p

I think for this week, the correct play is IND in a larger pool, and NE in a smaller one. In a large pool, you really want to have NE available for later weeks (they play the Jets twice!). But in a smaller pool, that's not likely to be a big deal, and it's better to take NE this week, when they're less popular.

Taking Indy in my sharp pools, Pit or Detroit in my square pools.

Im prob taking INDY too but HOU over SD seems decent. SD has looked completely awful, cuz they are.

What does sharp and square mean?

Go ahead and laugh at me if you're kidding, but a sharp refers to someone with some expertise in sports betting or who generally wins while a square refers to the casual or losing bettor.

I went for Indy this week in a small but sharp-filled league with rebuys for first three weeks

Well I have no ****ing clue if my league is sharp or square lol.

Apparently, I'm square.

Agree. I want to save my top 5 teams for later on since im in a 100 person pool.

So I think INDY is a lock pick and best move this week. Some went with SEA which I think is a horrible pick. West Coast teams normally dont do as well traveling to the east coast. Also If I were to pick SEA I'm waiting till there home since they got the biggest homefield advantage.

Week 3 JAX @ SEA. LOCK!

Anyone like TB or am I the only one? I'm figuring Geno is going to score some points for the Bucs.

And I'm leaning towards Pitt because I'm figuring most of my league is going with Indy

Its week 1 so you dont really need to be different. I would stay safe because you cant win it all on week 1. So just make sure you make it to week 2 lol.

I'm high on the bucs this week. Good matchup and you can't play them vs their division

+1

I like the Colts too, since then won't have a bunch better matchup then at home v Jac.

I really think anybody that took Denver in week 1 made a huge mistake. Against the defending champs, plus Denver is a team that gets to play Oakland and SD twice. Same reason I don't like NE this week. They get the Bills again (but at home next time) and twice against the Jets. Why waste these picks?

Edit - as much as I hate taking the road team, I may load up on TB. They won't have a better match-up all year.

take chiefs and thank me later

I would highly advise against this.

I'm also doing the Station Casinos Last Man Standing contest - $75,000 guranteed.

It's against the spread. I bought 5 entries for $100 (you get one free).

This week, I've got:

Steelers -6.5 vs. Titans
Lions -4.5 vs. Vikings
Seahawks -3.5 @ Panthers
Bucs -3.5 @ Jets
Texans -3.5 @ Chargers

Ugh. I didn't realize I had picked all favorites and three visiting teams until I made the picks.

Hopefully, I do better this year - last year I lost 4 of my 5 entries the first week and the last entry the final weak. I did not stay standing for long.

I'm wondering how far along in the season do you have to get to begin taking the opposite side with two entries...

This. I was pretty close to taking the Bucs, but it seemed a bit of FPS. Just survive and advance, like jimmy v.

A lot of people will bust out if the Raiders pull the upset!

Of course, I need the Bucs to hold on, too...