Quote:
Originally Posted by DontDoItPls
This is somewhat true, but is there really that many guys who remain 1st round picks for more than 3years? I mean LT dominated for a long time, but I still think he was only a 1st rounder for like 5 years...
-DontDoItPls
Looking at ADP value from FantasyFootballCalculator.com for the last 5 years, it seems like 3 years is a good run for a player to be a top 5 pick. Including 2012 (and assuming nothing changes), players with 3 or more consecutive top 5 ADP's are:
-LT (07-08, late first in 09, probably did well before 07 but I don't feel like looking for it)
-AP (08-11)
and thats it, although there a few others that would probably be slightly +EV. So you're right; I'm surprised there were so few players even in consideration. And in order for an actual advantage to be gained, you'd need to pick up one of those special players in the draft, then finish in the top half of the league to actualize the advantage vs the market. So, yea, not likely to be a major issue.
And looking at old draft data is such a blast from the past. 2007 first rounders included Joe Addai, Rudi Johnson, and Travis Henry.