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NFL DFS Thread 2015 NFL DFS Thread 2015

09-14-2015 , 04:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fear The Spear
You sure he doesn't have $16,800? That's exactly the amount that Ryan/Julio adds up to. If not, his only other option that would come close to that salary is Bradford/Matthews, leaving him 1k short. If he is going Bradford/Matthews, I would definitely keep Julio Jones in my lineup and hope he outscores Matthews.
His roster was:

Lacy -- $7,500
Miller -- $5,500
Adams -- $4,400
Landry -- $5,600
Kelce -- $4,800
Jaron Brown -- $3,000
Seahawks -- $3,400
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmanpoker
Doing a Monday nighter on DK. Opinions on better upside, Leonard Hankerson or Riley Cooper?
Cooper has zero upside, he's mainly in there to block.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dawade
His roster was:

Lacy -- $7,500
Miller -- $5,500
Adams -- $4,400
Landry -- $5,600
Kelce -- $4,800
Jaron Brown -- $3,000
Seahawks -- $3,400
Well given that he picked Jaron Brown (terrible pick) he might not even stack his QB with WR. You definitely need to roster Julio Jones, as he may go Ryan with Matthews.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fear The Spear
Well given that he picked Jaron Brown (terrible pick) he might not even stack his QB with WR. You definitely need to roster Julio Jones, as he may go Ryan with Matthews.
he claims he accidentally picked him. Said he had John Brown in all of his other lineups.

Someone in our league picked Garoppolo.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rakeme
Cooper has zero upside, he's mainly in there to block.
Yes after some research, I decided to shy away from Cooper.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:07 PM
Hey guys, pretty new to DFS but had a question.
Say you are in a GPP and under your contests it says you are currently winning $50 but you have no players going in tonight's games how much can you expect to win on that?
Should I be rooting for low scoring games tonight?
Thanks All
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:09 PM
For DK Monday Night

Has anybody thought about stacking opposing QB/RB

I was thinking that a QB would be trying to catch up throwing the ball while an RB is running to milk the clock.

The game flow sounds right.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HojoAkira
For DK Monday Night

Has anybody thought about stacking opposing QB/RB

I was thinking that a QB would be trying to catch up throwing the ball while an RB is running to milk the clock.

The game flow sounds right.
Sure, especially if its a pass catching RB. I have some small exposure to Bradford/Sproles tonight.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by porkchopG
Hey guys, pretty new to DFS but had a question.
Say you are in a GPP and under your contests it says you are currently winning $50 but you have no players going in tonight's games how much can you expect to win on that?
Should I be rooting for low scoring games tonight?
Thanks All
if you have no players tonight then you want low scoring games. i assume you are talking about the DK 10M, probably like $30
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by porkchopG
Hey guys, pretty new to DFS but had a question.
Say you are in a GPP and under your contests it says you are currently winning $50 but you have no players going in tonight's games how much can you expect to win on that?
Should I be rooting for low scoring games tonight?
Thanks All
Yes you better be rooting for a low scoring game.

I dropped 300 in DK MM and I am getting 259 back right now with a Odell and Dez screwing me over and I am praying for a low scoring game.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by porkchopG
Hey guys, pretty new to DFS but had a question.
Say you are in a GPP and under your contests it says you are currently winning $50 but you have no players going in tonight's games how much can you expect to win on that?
Should I be rooting for low scoring games tonight?
Thanks All
If it's $50 on the milly maker you have around 140-145 points, you should cash this week. Probably only $25 or $30.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fear The Spear
Sure, especially if its a pass catching RB. I have some small exposure to Bradford/Sproles tonight.
Yeah I am putting a lot of combos like those for the GPP.

For cash games though, I ain't doing it because the danger of the clock being milked to death and the QB not having a chance to come back.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fear The Spear
If it's $50 on the milly maker you have around 140-145 points, you should cash this week. Probably only $25 or $30.
Thanks guys,
Yea DK mil maker sitting with 148 pts but no players tonight.
Hoping for minimal MNF scoring!

Really liking DFS though, excited for the NFL season!
DFS totally reminds me of how poker was 10 years ago and DK lobby reminds me so much of Pokerstars, funny!
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:19 PM
So 114.6 with no payers I'm not gonna cash ? I'm sad now
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:22 PM
I am beginning to think that to win the Monday DK GGP, it just comes down to combinations.

I am assuming the top scoring entry will feature an Eagles stack, a Kaep/Boldin stack then everyone else entry, a Matt Ryan/Julio/Roddy stack, or a Vikings stack, Teddy Bridgewater/Zach Randolph stack.

I am just trying to cover all the possible top 50 winning combinations.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by porkchopG
Thanks guys,
Yea DK mil maker sitting with 148 pts but no players tonight.
Hoping for minimal MNF scoring!

Really liking DFS though, excited for the NFL season!
DFS totally reminds me of how poker was 10 years ago and DK lobby reminds me so much of Pokerstars, funny!

The thing I hate about DFS is the little control you have once it gets started and how you are going against guys that might have 300 times the bankroll you got in multi entry GPPs.

Each large field tournament you play might as well be a lottery ticket and the only chance you got really is hitting a one or two and playing a ton of cash games to move up.

Or limit your GPP entries to sure fire top 100 in large field ones and then play a lot of single entries.

The only reasons I am playing DFS right now.

I deposited 300...

I want to hit my bonus...

I wanna figure out how be very profitable without having a massive bankroll...

Online Poker in the USA sucks right now...

Last edited by HojoAkira; 09-14-2015 at 05:36 PM.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HojoAkira
I am beginning to think that to win the Monday DK GGP, it just comes down to combinations.

I am assuming the top scoring entry will feature an Eagles stack, a Kaep/Boldin stack then everyone else entry, a Matt Ryan/Julio/Roddy stack, or a Vikings stack, Teddy Bridgewater/Zach Randolph stack.

I am just trying to cover all the possible top 50 winning combinations.
I think theres a few more then 50 combos to cover
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rakeme
Cooper has zero upside, he's mainly in there to block.
thats what im hoping everybody thinking and took a sleeper in Cooper and if he hits he's probably gonna be low owned.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HojoAkira
The thing I hate about DFS is the little control you have once it gets started and how you are going against guys that might have 300 times the bankroll you got in multi entry GPPs.

Each large field tournament you play might as well be a lottery ticket and the only chance you got really is hitting a one or two and playing a ton of cash games to move up.

Or limit your GPP entries to sure fire top 100 in large field ones and then play a lot of single entries.

The only reasons I am playing DFS right now.

I deposited 300...

I want to hit my bonus...

I wanna figure out how be very profitable without having a massive bankroll...

Only Poker in the USA sucks right now...
Another Newbie question.
I started week 1 with all GPP's but when should I start trying out the 50/50's, double up's and multipliers? I know these are more like say cash games and not trying to win a big one like in GPP's.

Are the beginner 50/50's a good place to start on DK?
Thanks again guys
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:43 PM
Here are some entry statistics calculated from the DK file.

Entries Unique Players % Player Pool Cumulative Group Entries % All Entries Cumulative
500 19 0.006 0.006 9,500 1.83 1.83
250-499 19 0.006 0.012 6,382 1.23 3.05
100-249 109 0.036 0.048 14,683 2.82 5.87
50-99 225 0.073 0.121 14,516 2.79 8.66
25-49 571 0.186 0.308 18,756 3.60 12.26
2-24 61,487 20.082 20.390 212,868 40.90 53.16
1 243,743 79.610 100 243,743 46.83 100
Total 306,173 100 520,488 100
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ISmellToast
I think theres a few more then 50 combos to cover

Yeah but I don't think those combos are gonna win

I think the approach to a Monday Night GPP would have to be like a cash game.

Why would you put someone like Jacob Tamme in multiple lineups when there's Julio Jones, Leonard Hankerson, Justin Hardy and Roddy White.

There are very few contrarian plays to made without having negative correlations. Then there are few guys that will give you the points you need to win.

I mean sure you can try to narrow down every single combination, but how many people have the bankroll to that?
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HojoAkira
The thing I hate about DFS is the little control you have once it gets started and how you are going against guys that might have 300 times the bankroll you got in multi entry GPPs.

Each large field tournament you play might as well be a lottery ticket and the only chance you got really is hitting a one or two and playing a ton of cash games to move up.

Or limit your GPP entries to sure fire top 100 in large field ones and then play a lot of single entries.

The only reasons I am playing DFS right now.

I deposited 300...

I want to hit my bonus...

I wanna figure out how be very profitable without having a massive bankroll...

Online Poker in the USA sucks right now...
If you think that being profitable comes just from "having a massive bankroll" then every week you should just make 100 lineups and enter them all in the quarter arcade. Free money right?
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by porkchopG
Another Newbie question.
I started week 1 with all GPP's but when should I start trying out the 50/50's, double up's and multipliers? I know these are more like say cash games and not trying to win a big one like in GPP's.

Are the beginner 50/50's a good place to start on DK?
Thanks again guys
Beginner 50/50s got more rake though.

You can do Beginner 50/50s to pay for single entry GPPs.

In DFS is all about bankroll, more money you have on the site, the better you chances at being very profitable. The less money you have on the site, less chances of you hitting a big one.

Sure, you can grind out double ups, 50/50s and multipliers on the low stakes, but look at it like this.

You grinding on the low stacks cash games and you hit a 200 score on a line up and you win two dollars and that line up would've put you in the top 50 of a GPP.

Of course it would be rare occurrence but I am saying, you are screwing yourself over if you just stick to cash games.

To avoid ridiculous competition with those with a bigger bankroll than you, find and play a lot of single entry GPPs. Play cash games to cover your entry into those GPPs. You should be able to be to work you way up too putting down 50 entries in a large scale GPP after a couple of months doing this if you win 60 percent of your cash games and hit a couple of your single entry GPPs in the Top 15.

Research a lot and avoid and I repeat avoid the sharks in large scale GPPs that cover multiple days, you are just throwing money away.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 06:30 PM
My two milly entries on DK are 162 and 192 but with no players left. Have a 150 in a smaller contest with Bradford and Mathews still to play.

Julio pulling a Dez would be nice.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-14-2015 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ballin4life
If you think that being profitable comes just from "having a massive bankroll" then every week you should just make 100 lineups and enter them all in the quarter arcade. Free money right?
I don't see the point in doing that because I play a crap ton of cash games and single entries to build a large enough bankroll to do big tournaments.

Large Scale multi entry GPPs without a least 10K in bankroll to me is a lottery. You shouldn't even expect to win. I rather build lineups based on value and try to win 60 percent of the time in cash games.

Having a massive bankroll reduces the lottery aspect of Daily Fantasy.

It prevents you from donating to the guys that that put 50K on the site a week and are long term profitable. The disparity is massive. People are throwing money away.

DFS different from poker, because Tom Dwan isn't gonna waste his time at a table at the microstakes but a DFS Shark can enter any game he wants and put in 300 line ups against your 20 or 30 or 40 with a 1 dollar entry fee and he might hit and win 2000 or whatever and put that toward tourney with tickets.

So yeah, I think your bankroll matters way more in DFS than Poker. DFS is researching and projecting and having the money to put in multiple line-ups (in the hundreds) and hitting.



500 chances vs 20 chances

People who put 50K on the site a week just probably ate Matthew Stafford Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, Ryan Tannehill, OBJ being total ass and they still have a chance at winning the MM.

If you want to be long term profitable at DFS and be with the big boys, putting 25K to 50K on the site a weak, then yeah, you better have a very nice sized bankroll and research a lot.

In Poker gather up 200 bucks, study and work hard on your craft and beat the players in front of you. And it's funny DFS is labelled as a skill game...when it's really not for about 90 percent of it's players. It's a lottery.

Of course, you can always submit 20 lineups and get lucky and win 100K or a million dollars, but what are the odds of that when 20 people put in 500 lineups based on computer algorithims?



Until DFS is structured so players that have massive bankrolls cannot play against players that do not and they can only play against each other, it is pointless to play Multi Entry Tournaments. And that will probably not happen anytime soon because currently, those with massive bankrolls keep the all these sites going because they put the most money down day in and day out - week in and week out.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote

      
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