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Old 05-21-2015, 09:20 PM   #1976
SA16
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

White Sox are a joke tonight. Every inning two men on nobody out then completely inept at getting the run in. Only good thing here is Salzars thrown like a billion pitches through 3.
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Old 05-21-2015, 09:22 PM   #1977
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66 View Post
Kraus was a BvP play tonight. One finally paid off.
^^^^^
This.Steve Pearce was a good bvp play on the early slate.
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Old 05-21-2015, 09:26 PM   #1978
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

whats a BvP play exactly ?
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Old 05-21-2015, 09:27 PM   #1979
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Pearce was also just a good play In general
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Old 05-21-2015, 09:27 PM   #1980
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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whats a BvP play exactly ?
When someone is 2-3 with a HR vs someone
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Old 05-21-2015, 09:40 PM   #1981
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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So much red. My lineups look like something out of a Game of Thrones wedding.

Spoilers
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Old 05-21-2015, 11:18 PM   #1982
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by Burdman2321 View Post
whats a BvP play exactly ?
Batter vs.Pitcher.Pearce 6/18 2dbls.2 hrs.vs.Happ
Swisher 7/25 2hrs.6bb vs.Danks. "Experts'' frown upon this strategy.
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Old 05-21-2015, 11:26 PM   #1983
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Burdman2321 View Post
whats a BvP play exactly ?
A justification used when a poor play pays off.

In other news scored 32 points with both my lineups which apparently was enough to crush H2H today lol
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Old 05-21-2015, 11:57 PM   #1984
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

the pitching for this Friday slate is absolutely unreal:

scherzer
greinke
felix
archer
carasco
pineda
lester
cole
syndegaard
richards
lynn
samardzja
mchugh
porcello
young
jimenez
simon


plenty of ways to be contrarian. who do you guys like?
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Old 05-22-2015, 12:01 AM   #1985
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

ubaldo
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Old 05-22-2015, 12:07 AM   #1986
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

121.65 and 88 in the two lineups i did for the 7:05 game slate, that a decent score for todays action ?
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Old 05-22-2015, 12:10 AM   #1987
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by uncleriver View Post
the pitching for this Friday slate is absolutely unreal:

scherzer
greinke
felix
archer
carasco
pineda
lester
cole
syndegaard
richards
lynn
samardzja
mchugh
porcello
young
jimenez
simon


plenty of ways to be contrarian. who do you guys like?
Would not advise being contrarian.
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Old 05-22-2015, 12:13 AM   #1988
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SA16 View Post
A justification used when a poor play pays off.

In other news scored 32 points with both my lineups which apparently was enough to crush H2H today lol
In all seriousness what are some better strategies? Managers have used Bvp and splits to set their lineups and relief matchups forever.It's good enough for them but not for DFS?
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Old 05-22-2015, 12:17 AM   #1989
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by uncleriver View Post
the pitching for this Friday slate is absolutely unreal:

scherzer
greinke
felix
archer
carasco
pineda
lester
cole
syndegaard
richards
lynn
samardzja
mchugh
porcello
young
jimenez
simon


plenty of ways to be contrarian. who do you guys like?
Lol if there's that many solid options why would you need to go contrarian?
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Old 05-22-2015, 12:44 AM   #1990
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by EddyB66 View Post
Lol if there's that many solid options why would you need to go contrarian?
contrarian wrong word. meant to be unique, sorry.

firing off the $27 WSOP ME seat w/ 591 runners so need to cross off the top 4-5 options.
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Old 05-22-2015, 01:18 AM   #1991
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
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In all seriousness what are some better strategies? Managers have used Bvp and splits to set their lineups and relief matchups forever.It's good enough for them but not for DFS?
It has no predictive value so there is no purpose in using it. You need something like 100 AB for it to have any meaning and at that point it still doesn't matter because the data will have been compiled over such a long time period that each players skill level will not be the same. Additionally there are very few players that even come close to meeting this criteria. Managers use it but managers are notorious for deferring to incredibly small sample sizes and making poor in-game strategic decisions.

Honestly the only reason I'd ever look at BvP would be for GPPS to see which players are the "BvP picks" and fade them expecting them to have higher than normal ownership.
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Old 05-22-2015, 01:21 AM   #1992
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by uncleriver View Post
contrarian wrong word. meant to be unique, sorry.

firing off the $27 WSOP ME seat w/ 591 runners so need to cross off the top 4-5 options.
No need to do this. You can differentiate in your hitters better. If you're gonna cross off guys like Scherzer, Greinke, Cole, Hernandez etc... you're just severely capping your upside.
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Old 05-22-2015, 01:35 AM   #1993
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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No need to do this. You can differentiate in your hitters better. If you're gonna cross off guys like Scherzer, Greinke, Cole, Hernandez etc... you're just severely capping your upside.
i would have 2 of those top 5 for a cash L/U but we need cap space to stack hitters with SF, COL, CLE and CHC. something like Ubaldo/Porcello creates that cap space.
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Old 05-22-2015, 01:49 AM   #1994
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

These Red Sox totals are a mirage.
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Old 05-22-2015, 05:28 AM   #1995
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

My sources say: Max
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Old 05-22-2015, 08:15 AM   #1996
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
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It has no predictive value so there is no purpose in using it. You need something like 100 AB for it to have any meaning and at that point it still doesn't matter because the data will have been compiled over such a long time period that each players skill level will not be the same. Additionally there are very few players that even come close to meeting this criteria. Managers use it but managers are notorious for deferring to incredibly small sample sizes and making poor in-game strategic decisions.

Honestly the only reason I'd ever look at BvP would be for GPPS to see which players are the "BvP picks" and fade them expecting them to have higher than normal ownership.

Um no.


You can use BvP for knuckleball pitchers as someone already pointed out. Also you can find scenarios where not to use somebody. Saw a situation last year where Freddie Freeman was something like 0-12 with 11 k's vs a pitcher. Believe he k'd 3 times that game.


To think BvP means nothing is not correct. Just wouldn't put a ton of stock into it. Maybe around 5% weight.
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Old 05-22-2015, 09:21 AM   #1997
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

so many top pitchers today
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Old 05-22-2015, 09:22 AM   #1998
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Yeah BvP is just a bad metric to use, especially given all of the other stuff you can use.

SAs explanation was dead on.

I would agree maybe .1% of the time you could use it (possibly for knuckleballers).

To try to give a different view of why it's a bad strategy is the following:

Most of you that want to use it probably played baseball or something and herp derp go "but some guys just have my number or vice versa"

Nobody is saying that can't be true in some cases but you have no way to distinguish when that actually exists and where there was just natural variance over a small sample.

Re Steve Pearce:

It's hard to call that a BvP play, when the guy smashed lefties last year. So can I also call it a wOBA split play, a value play (he was cheap), and a team total play (high team total)?

He was just a good play, BvP was the last thing that mattered there and honestly doesn't really matter at all.

So drawing conclusions based on it is poor practice. Use something with some statistical significance ffs
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Old 05-22-2015, 09:23 AM   #1999
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SA16 View Post
It has no predictive value so there is no purpose in using it. You need something like 100 AB for it to have any meaning and at that point it still doesn't matter because the data will have been compiled over such a long time period that each players skill level will not be the same. Additionally there are very few players that even come close to meeting this criteria. Managers use it but managers are notorious for deferring to incredibly small sample sizes and making poor in-game strategic decisions.

Honestly the only reason I'd ever look at BvP would be for GPPS to see which players are the "BvP picks" and fade them expecting them to have higher than normal ownership.
i don't think it is correct to say that bvp has no value, it is more information to add to your research and i don't think ignoring valuable information is a good way to go about your research. i also do think bvp should be a part of your research because i do think batters and hitters know if they have had success against a certain player in the past, just go to draftkingstv and watch the vernon wells interview, he talks about bvp and how he knew he crushed certain pitchers
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Old 05-22-2015, 09:36 AM   #2000
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNonPareil View Post
Yeah BvP is just a bad metric to use, especially given all of the other stuff you can use.

SAs explanation was dead on.

I would agree maybe .1% of the time you could use it (possibly for knuckleballers).

To try to give a different view of why it's a bad strategy is the following:

Most of you that want to use it probably played baseball or something and herp derp go "but some guys just have my number or vice versa"

Nobody is saying that can't be true in some cases but you have no way to distinguish when that actually exists and where there was just natural variance over a small sample.

Re Steve Pearce:

It's hard to call that a BvP play, when the guy smashed lefties last year. So can I also call it a wOBA split play, a value play (he was cheap), and a team total play (high team total)?

He was just a good play, BvP was the last thing that mattered there and honestly doesn't really matter at all.

So drawing conclusions based on it is poor practice. Use something with some statistical significance ffs
Lol statistical significance? What could be a better measurement then the exact situation playing out multiple times already.

You are using every other statistic to see what will happens when x faces y. It happened already! 18 times and 40% of the time x got a hit. Not sure how that is not factored at all.
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