yankees stack w/ Archer ftw

Since the start of 2013 he's thrown about 300 innings of 5ERA, 1.4+ WHIP, his .308 babip from 2013 (200 of those innings) doesn't look all that unlucky to me. Sure his HR rate has skyrocketed, that could be bad luck, or him sucking. He's older and hasn't exactly taken care of his body. His park and others in that division aren't going to become more forgiving any time soon.

Sure I took a quick glance, and if it walks like a duck (5 era over last 300 inns) and talks like a duck (1.4 whip over 300 inns) it's almost always a duck.

How about some examples of old fat guys that were just unlucky to post those kind of numbers and bounced back at 35. Zips, and Steamer and whatever else don't really take old and fat and injured and "lost it" (which happens to all pitchers at some point) into account.

They do take that stuff into account. There are aging curves and such.

Also - Colon?

Not on Archer tonight and he's 75% owned so you can book a 20 point game from him.

Edit: Lol Archer. Please don't blow up AJ.

prolly not. wild pitch on 3rd out and then he walks in 2 runs

and is gonna be at like 60 pitches after 2

So Archer has already ruined my night

Was gonna roll Burnett and altuve. Went with archer and spangenburg instead. I know he should've been out of the inning but way to bear down Chris.

unreal, should have faded Archer...

Also started Cabrera, man that's bad. Not sure how I missed that. Might not matter if the Yanks 1-4 keeps raking. Could've been way worse. Young robbed Arod of a homer.

If you didn't pick archer on FD in 50/50s then you are completely horrible.

Played Archer tonight. At least a HR from Caleb Joseph is going to help tonight.

LOL +1

Archer was not the best play for pitchers yet again though. Think I had him 2nd or 3rd. He was obviously going to be extremely highly owned though so using him is fine-ish but it's really just turning it into an 8v8 with your hitters and adding some variance to it/decreasing your edge.

Agree with SA on all the CC stuff...

not sure about Archer not being the best tonight though.. I definitely think he was the number 1 option, but only a little better than 3-4 other guys who are all basically tied for 2nd. Much closer than ownership %'s would imply.

My model has them projected very close but there's a pretty significant price difference. I don't think using Archer was bad by any means but I really don't think he should have been 75-80% owned (though was fully expecting him to be owned a ton).

+1. I had Burnett and mchugh being really close.

Would it be fair to assume the recreational side of DFS thinks of Burnett as terrible.

I think that will quickly change if he keeps pitching like he has, he wasn't very good last year so that is still fresh in a lot of player's minds hence the hesitation to use him. I'd say the recreational side mainly just looks at this year's ERA at this point but not sure.

Idk Burnett's a weird case. He's been really good since joining Pittsburgh (worse year last year of course) but I think people still think of him as that really wild guy who can blow up at any moment.

Archer has about a run better SIERRA/xFIP.

Archer has a ridiculous K%.

Archer was the bigger favorite. On FD, this is quite important.

Texas had the lowest team total on the night.

Both teams strike out about the same vs righties.

Given archer was the best option, you know he'd be very high owned which should make you even more likely to take him (in cash).

But I mean, Burnett was cheaper.

You know and that cheapness really can save a few bucks on a strict priced site like FD.

Seriously, you can pick the most expensive pitcher every night and not have any problem at all on FD, so you really should be picking the pitcher with the most expected points, not dollar/point (given that pitcher points have the least variance of all positions in baseball).

Sigh. It just wasn't even close.

Why am I putting much stock in SIERA/xFIP over a sample of 5 starts? It's not very meaningful at all then.

I had Burnett projected marginally higher than Archer regardless of price. Unfortunately I've already updated all my documentation for tomorrow so I can't go back and see what all my inputs were. I think the Pirates were like -130ish and Rangers around -165ish? That's a difference of around 0.25 in win EV - somewhat. - less than you get for 0.1 IP.

CIN is also projected to strikeout more in that spot then TEX all else equal though yes, as you said, it is similar.

Archer has a ridiculous K% is true but assuming he's going to have a 28% going forward since he had a 28% in 5-6 starts previously this season is very flawed. The last two years it was 21% and 19% (Burnetts last two years being 20.3% and 26.1%).

One of the biggest differences between them is Burnett is also typically expected to throw slightly more innings which is important on FD.

Additionally the goal is not to pick the pitcher with the highest EV and then pick the rest of the players. It's to pick the overall team with the highest EV which likely still would have called for Burnett even if his overall value was slightly less than Archers.

Now of course it's entirely possible models other people created had them ranked and projected slightly different than I did but what it's going to come down to in that case is I trust mine more than any others and I fully expect others should trust theirs more than someone elses.

Thankfully the forecast for COL LAD tomorrow is as bad as it gets.

Sure, for normal aging. I don't think that's what's going on here. We shall see.

Great example with Colon though. That fat bastard really found the fountain of youth and just continues to roll on.

Yeah, I can't imagine beisbol there unless the forecast is wayy off, might get rained out of some nice hitting options @Chi as well.

Thankfully. I was fully expecting Grandal 100% ownership. Not having that game available will be way better (until I fade it then the game is miraculously played and lose to all the randoms who play them anyway).

Well SIERRA and xFIP are forward looking indicators. And anyway, last year Archer had a better K% and SIERRA/xFIP over the WHOLE SEASON. So IDK what you are even talking about sample size.

I'm sorry but you are wrong. Cash games on FD, Archer was the play yesterday... for more reasons than just their numbers too.

You have a flawed understanding about variance in baseball if you think picking "less safe" pitchers to maximize your total teams expected points is superior to paying for a little less volatility.