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Page 35 of 264

First

15 25 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 45 55 85 135 235

Last

04-23-2015 , 12:22 PM

#851

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Depends on the park. Wrigley it def matters.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 12:34 PM

#852

THAY3R

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 36,550

Yeah Wrigley is the obv extreme, at least it's the only park that I know of whom's O/U can fluctuate ~4 runs based on wind

I guess in baseball every tiny factor matters/nothing matters

Quote

04-23-2015 , 12:38 PM

#853

THAY3R

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 36,550

The thing about baseball is you do all this research to find this value player who produces like half a point higher than expectation but then you find 25% of the field owns him and it basically becomes -EV to play him when he doesn't even outscore the replacement scrub more than 2/3 of the time. I think sets of unpopular players are the way to go. That guy wouldn't have won 1st-4th if he went with a popular hitting stack that went off

Quote

04-23-2015 , 12:45 PM

#854

TasteIsKing9

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 1,360

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAY3R

It wasn't that hard to start parades yesterday... The 75% of
People that didn't yesterday were prolly
Too lazy to scroll to the bottom

Quote

04-23-2015 , 12:52 PM

#855

THAY3R

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 36,550

Paredes was a good example. How much higher do you think his expecatation was than Ryan Goins? How often does he outproduce Goins there? Does it justify competing with 5x more people? Etc.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 12:58 PM

#856

Priptonite

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,204

go go Cubs

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04-23-2015 , 02:33 PM

#857

NDfan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 10,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Depends on the park. Wrigley it def matters.

US Cellular should be added.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 02:36 PM

#858

Lestat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 10,998

Aren't cash games (i.e., H2H and 50/50s) totally solvable? I understand that a GPP has more incomplete information as you need to outplay/outguess the field. I also get that as long as there are fishes (like myself) who continue entering cash games, they will remain profitable. But at the end of the day, I don't see why someone with a fancy algorithm solver setup couldn't produce a perfect lineup for every cash game slate. Am I wrong?

Quote

04-23-2015 , 02:47 PM

#859

Lestat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 10,998

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAY3R

The thing about baseball is you do all this research to find this value player who produces like half a point higher than expectation but then you find 25% of the field owns him and it basically becomes -EV to play him when he doesn't even outscore the replacement scrub more than 2/3 of the time. I think sets of unpopular players are the way to go. That guy wouldn't have won 1st-4th if he went with a popular hitting stack that went off

Let me preface this by saying "I think"...

GPPs aren't so much about expection, but rather projections and ceilings. You're probably better off with a lower expectation/higher ceiling if it avoids having to battle 1/4 of the field.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 03:02 PM

#860

losing all2

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,168

There's so many ways to skin the cat right now. If you look at 10 random pros on any given night their lineups will vary drastically, unless they're sharing ideas, or even lineups.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 03:20 PM

#861

EddyB66

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Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Stacked brewers/Marlins. Don't have any HR's. Lol

Quote

04-23-2015 , 03:45 PM

#862

CharlieKelly

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 2,836

How do you stack Marlins and not put Stanton in?

Quote

04-23-2015 , 03:49 PM

#863

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by CharlieKelly

How do you stack Marlins and not put Stanton in?

No idea.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 04:02 PM

#864

ChiefBlackfoot

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 561

at least it will be a low owned stack

Quote

04-23-2015 , 04:16 PM

#865

TasteIsKing9

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 1,360

Quote:

Originally Posted by losing all2

There's so many ways to skin the cat right now. If you look at 10 random pros on any given night their lineups will vary drastically, unless they're sharing ideas, or even lineups.

This couldn't be more wrong about the pros. Especially since I am compiling about 2-3 months of cash game lineups of the top 10-15 and you will be shocked when I publish the results

Quote

04-23-2015 , 04:20 PM

#866

losing all2

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,168

Quote:

Originally Posted by TasteIsKing9

This couldn't be more wrong about the pros. Especially since I am compiling about 2-3 months of cash game lineups of the top 10-15 and you will be shocked when I publish the results

In hoops or MLB? and if MLB, like I said the syndicates that use the exact lineup as a team don't count.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 04:28 PM

#867

THAY3R

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Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 36,550

Not to mention he was specifically referencing GPP's

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04-23-2015 , 04:33 PM

#868

SA16

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 6,972

Is the play just to stack the Mets always?

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04-23-2015 , 04:34 PM

#869

SA16

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 6,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by TasteIsKing9

This couldn't be more wrong about the pros. Especially since I am compiling about 2-3 months of cash game lineups of the top 10-15 and you will be shocked when I publish the results

I'm newer to MLB but have a ton of volume in NHL. From what I've seen so far the lineups of most regs on NHL slates are very very similar. Usually at worst 6/9 the same but typically closer (with one exception who will remain nameless). For MLB though it seems much more dispersed likely just because of their being (usually) 15 games a night and so many more good options.

Quote

04-23-2015 , 04:37 PM

#870

EddyB66

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Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

For those keeping track.

BvP early plays were:

Braun
K. Davis
Alonso

Quote

04-23-2015 , 04:41 PM

#871

TasteIsKing9

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 1,360

Quote:

Originally Posted by losing all2

In hoops or MLB? and if MLB, like I said the syndicates that use the exact lineup as a team don't count.

I'm compiling list of "pros" such as CSU Smizz dink birdwings etc and their cash game lineups.
Can't track Gpp since they all multi enter

Quote

04-23-2015 , 05:05 PM

#872

wesrwood

temp-banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 22,886

Wow I'm so bad at remembering to check lineups lol.

Also I was half asleep earlier and changed one contest but not the whole set of contests using the same lineup