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Old 08-10-2015, 03:37 PM   #5301
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Well, if you watch an obscene amount of baseball and process what you see extremely well then I don't think you NEED Fangraphs. In fact, I think Fangraphs is a detriment to some people because they don't actually know wtf they're looking at and they draw conclusions based on their incorrect interpretations.

For me I can't really comprehend not using Fangraphs, but I don't watch a lot of baseball. And I'm gonna rant a bit here, but from what I've seen a lot of touts reference stats improperly (and I'm not an advanced sabermetrician or anything so it's probably even worse than I think), so I think even if you're reading "expert" analysis that you should learn for yourself. It really frustrates me that the DFS advice industry is so focused on giving picks and not on teaching players how to evaluate plays themselves. Teach a man to fish, etc. I feel like I could make a 10min YouTube video on how to navigate Fangraphs and it would be more useful to players than 100 daily plays articles.
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Old 08-10-2015, 03:51 PM   #5302
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Priptonite View Post
Well, if you watch an obscene amount of baseball and process what you see extremely well then I don't think you NEED Fangraphs. In fact, I think Fangraphs is a detriment to some people because they don't actually know wtf they're looking at and they draw conclusions based on their incorrect interpretations.

For me I can't really comprehend not using Fangraphs, but I don't watch a lot of baseball. And I'm gonna rant a bit here, but from what I've seen a lot of touts reference stats improperly (and I'm not an advanced sabermetrician or anything so it's probably even worse than I think), so I think even if you're reading "expert" analysis that you should learn for yourself. It really frustrates me that the DFS advice industry is so focused on giving picks and not on teaching players how to evaluate plays themselves. Teach a man to fish, etc. I feel like I could make a 10min YouTube video on how to navigate Fangraphs and it would be more useful to players than 100 daily plays articles.
Do you mind sharing some of the key things you use Fangraphs for? Thanks in advance.
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Old 08-10-2015, 03:54 PM   #5303
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Like 95% of the things posted from FG on RG are misused. Actually nearly much every stat saying "X player has a Y stat in the year 2015/in the last Z days/against team or player W" does this.
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Old 08-10-2015, 04:10 PM   #5304
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

the extent of my strategy is: find hitters with good woba and iso splits vs a bad pitcher, preferably in a hitters park
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Old 08-10-2015, 04:27 PM   #5305
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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the extent of my strategy is: find hitters with good woba and iso splits vs a bad pitcher, preferably in a hitters park
Everyone with a pulse is doing that.
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Old 08-10-2015, 04:47 PM   #5306
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

i would hope so but looking thru a bunch of other peoples lineups its not true
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Old 08-10-2015, 04:51 PM   #5307
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

I know I'm in the minority but I don't use a lot of That stuff
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Old 08-10-2015, 05:25 PM   #5308
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

I read something on nate silvers site (I think) that said this years MLB had way more variance than previous seasons.
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Old 08-10-2015, 05:28 PM   #5309
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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I read something on nate silvers site (I think) that said this years MLB had way more variance than previous seasons.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ctions-failed/
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Old 08-10-2015, 05:57 PM   #5310
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Is Gray on a pitch count?
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:01 PM   #5311
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

According to RG yes which means most likely no.
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:03 PM   #5312
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by TasteIsKing9 View Post
In terms of pitching stats? I look at whether the guy is a strikeout pitcher in my mind and is he facing a shirty offense in a ****ty park.
Oh and never fade kluber sale or stras.
Fading Sale tonight in favor of Johnny Cueto.
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:09 PM   #5313
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by kingkang27 View Post
Do you mind sharing some of the key things you use Fangraphs for? Thanks in advance.
Fairly lengthy post coming soon
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:17 PM   #5314
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by Priptonite View Post
Fairly lengthy post coming soon
Personally (in this forum) I love the lengthy post!


Thanks in adv.
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:23 PM   #5315
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man View Post
Is Gray on a pitch count?
i would think yes considering he only threw 77 last start besides pitching decent enough for coors. would assume he throws more but how many more is a risk. to the 75% winrate, yes it is completely unsustainable and you are just running hot. good luck going forward just being a realist basically no chance you sustain anywhere near that rest of year
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:25 PM   #5316
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

any reason to worry bout sale because of weather or no? thinking hes fine but just curious if anyone disagrees
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:29 PM   #5317
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

what do we think of utley leadoff system? small sample size but impressive so far
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:41 PM   #5318
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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what do we think of utley leadoff system? small sample size but impressive so far
i like him tonight, but then again he's my favorite player of all time so maybe i'm just a fanboy
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:45 PM   #5319
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

why do people always assume they are negatively affected by variance and that is why they are losing instead of the opposite

personally betting wise my ROI has been consistent every season. and i bet on like 80% of the slate every night.

variance is just an excuse for i don't know what i'm doing IMO
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:47 PM   #5320
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

utley is min-price leading off vs a pitcher whos terrible vs lhb. i have him in all my cash games
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:51 PM   #5321
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by kingkang27 View Post
Do you mind sharing some of the key things you use Fangraphs for? Thanks in advance.
I'll walk through a basic example I guess. Let's take a look at Ian Kennedy:

We'll start at his standard pitcher stats page. Kennedy has enough major league playing time that we don't need to see his minor league data, so click "minor leagues" below the Dashboard and Customize buttons to get rid of that data and make the table more readable.

We'll start with ERA, FIP and xFIP on the right. FIP and xFIP are ERA estimators. Take a look at the Fangraphs library page for FIP if you're unfamiliar (whenever you come across a stat you're unfamiliar with you should do this). Basically, FIP says, "Hits other than HRs are highly variable depending on defense/luck/etc, I want to know how well a pitcher is pitching based on his strikeout, walk (and HBP) and HR rates."

So we have Kennedy's 4.49 ERA, 5.08 FIP and 3.86 xFIP. His FIP tells us he's actually getting lucky and that his ERA should be even higher! So what's the deal with his xFIP? xFIP is the same as FIP but assumes a league-average HR/FB%, the premise being that pitchers have little control over how many of the fly balls they allow go for home runs. Let's look at Kennedy's over the years. His career average is 10.6% (league average is around 9-10), and in full seasons it's fluctuated from 7.7-13.2. In 2015 he's sporting a monstrous 19.2%! So that explains the huge difference in FIP and xFIP.

So far we've got that Kennedy has a 4.49 ERA, but is likely pitching closer to his 3.86 xFIP, rationalized partly by how unlucky he's been with respect to HR/FB%. Now let's break down some of the components of that xFIP. The "Dashboard" shows K/9 and BB/9, how many batters a pitcher is expected to strikeout or walk per 9 innings. You'll see K/9 reference a lot in DFS literature. There's a problem with K/9 and BB/9 though. We'll take a little tangent to explore.

My favorite example to illustrate this is Carlos Rodon. Let's look at starting pitchers with a minimum of 50 IP this season, sorted by K/9. Rodon is ranked 8th @ 9.88. For comparison, Jacob deGrom is down at 20 with 9.15 K/9. Now let's sort by K%, the percentage of batters faced that a pitcher K's. deGrom jumps to 9th, and Rodon drops to 23rd.

So what's the deal? Take a look at Rodon's walk rate, 12.9%! That's obscene (use Fangraphs library to get a sense of what's good/bad). deGrom's is only 4.5%. Both pitchers might throw 6 IP with 6Ks, but over the course of those 6 IP, Rodon will have faced more batters because he's allowing more base runners. deGrom is a much more efficient pitcher and strikes out a greater percentage of batters faced, but Rodon faces more batters per 9 IP, so his K/9 makes him APPEAR to be the higher strikeout pitcher. There is also a contribution from their very large difference in their BABIPs (batting average on balls in play), which we'll talk about later.

Ok, so back to Ian Kennedy. We'll go to his advanced stats page to look at his K% and BB%. 21.7% and 6.5% are better than average, but nothing to get too excited about. For DFS purposes, we probably want to know about his L/R splits, so we can find out what handedness batters we want to target or avoid vs Kennedy.

THIS IS WHERE I FIND A LOT OF ERRORS FROM TOUTS. We'll start by looking at his wOBA (remember, Fangraphs library if you're not familiar) splits on the far right under "Standard." 0.348 vRHB and 0.367 vLHB. Those are bad, but THIS IS WHERE A LOT OF PEOPLE STOP AND IT'S A HUGE MISTAKE, AND THIS IS WHAT A BUNCH OF ROTOGRINDER TOOLS REPORT, JUST WOBA. Scroll down to advanced to take a look at his K%, BB% and xFIP. Thus far this season he's been better vs LHB, with a 6% higher K%. This is only half a seasons worth of data though, so let's look at his career numbers to get a larger sample. He does appear to have a slightly higher K% vLHB than vs RHB.

Scroll up and look at his career wOBAs, significantly lower than this years'. And we already know why, HR/FB%! Scroll to "Batted Ball" in his 2015 Splits page and you'll see his 18% and 20% vLHB and vRHB, respectively. We can dive deeper. Maybe the increase in HR/FB% is real. It's highly unlikely, but why not explore. Also in the Batted Ball section is Hard%, which tells you what percentage of balls in play were hit hard. Kennedy's career #s are pretty high, 33.2% vLHB and 31.3% vRHB. His 2015 #s are higher, 35.2% and 34.3%, but not enough to warrant an 8-10% jump in HR/FB%.

So all in all we know that Kennedy is a decently solid pitcher and that his ERA this year is inflated due to an extreme HR/FB%. On a full slate you can probably find better pitchers to target, but you also don't have to shy away from taking batters against him.

Our look into Kennedy didn't really give us a chance to look at a good BABIP example. Take a look at Lucas Duda's 2015 splits. You might conclude that Duda mashes lefties based on his triple slash line, wOBA or wRC+. Let's look at his career numbers to confirm, since he only has 110 PAs vLHP this season. Hmm... looks like he sucks vLHP. So what's the deal this season. Take a look at his 2015 BABIP vLHP, .426! That's .100 points higher than his career average*. So we can conclude that Duda is running hot in a small sample and that going forward we shouldn't expect him to continue mashing lefties. Further evidence that he hasn't made any real improvement vLHP is his K% and BB% are nearly identical to his career averages.

I think a lot of people find Fangraphs intimidating. Hopefully that walkthrough helps to make it less so. I can't stress enough using the library (or other resources) to make sure you actually know what a stat means.

*When using BABIP to evaluate a player's luck, ALWAYS look at their career numbers. Chris Young outperforms his ERA estimators year after year because he's shown the ability to sustain a lower than league average BABIP.

Edit: I did not dive into projection systems like ZiPS or Steamer because I don't feel I'm at the point where I can confidently speak to them.

Last edited by Priptonite; 08-10-2015 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:52 PM   #5322
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Man, could I have used a better example???

Quote:
RotoGrinders ‏@RotoGrinders 6m6 minutes ago

Ian Kennedy is allowing a .348 wOBA to LHB & an even worse .367 mark to RHB. Don't be scared off the Reds bats due to the park downgrade!
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:53 PM   #5323
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
why do people always assume they are negatively affected by variance and that is why they are losing instead of the opposite

personally betting wise my ROI has been consistent every season. and i bet on like 80% of the slate every night.

variance is just an excuse for i don't know what i'm doing IMO
variance is not a real thing? Errrrrrrr
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Old 08-10-2015, 06:59 PM   #5324
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

because it's a game of skill when winning
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Old 08-10-2015, 07:12 PM   #5325
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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variance is not a real thing? Errrrrrrr
no its real but anytime someone loses it becomes variance in their minds when in reality it probably was just some normal thing

it just becomes a phrase people use when they don't know why they lost or they're unable to admit they don't know what they're doing.

people use the term too freely.

regression to the mean is another one. guy has a slump? regressing to the mean!
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