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Page 196 of 264

First

96 146 176 186 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 206 216 246

Last

08-01-2015 , 12:47 AM

#4876

Lawnmower Man

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 4,457

https://twitter.com/Angels/status/59...758272/photo/1

Quote

08-01-2015 , 01:41 AM

#4877

jpwilkie

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 299

he's a **** play but find it interesting dk dropped heston from 9500 way down to 5000. hoping alot of people fall for it

Quote

08-01-2015 , 01:51 AM

#4878

lebron_cramps

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 970

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpwilkie

he's a **** play but find it interesting dk dropped heston from 9500 way down to 5000. hoping alot of people fall for it

Heston has about a 4 ERA away from SF. I hope its 100 degrees out there.

Can't decide who I like more tomorrow Yankees or Rangers.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 03:16 AM

#4879

lebron_cramps

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 970

Does anyone play at Fantasy Aces? If so any opinions?

Quote

08-01-2015 , 09:12 AM

#4880

NDfan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 10,016

Whats up with DK, still havnt closed last nights mlb action?

Quote

08-01-2015 , 12:11 PM

#4881

Lawnmower Man

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingkang27

Sorry in advance if this question has been asked before but I couldn't find an answer. I realize it takes a very large sample for GPP win rates and ROI to stabilize but has anyone see or have an estimated guess at what sustainable win rates are for GPPs? Thank you.

You sort of answered your own question. The sample required for large field gpps would be pretty astronomical if the goal is to make even ballpark confidence limits for ROI. I've seen people throw all kinds of different numbers but have no idea what they were based on (probably independently verified by thinking about?). You'd need to amass data for a cohort of players, but I have no idea where to get that data. Doesn't DK provide tournament history files or something?

Quote

08-01-2015 , 04:36 PM

#4882

kingkang27

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 161

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man

Thanks. I only started playing two months ago on DK and started off well so been sort of pressing. So far I have a sample of 1,750 GPPs for 39% win rate and 21% ROI. I usually only play 1-2 line-ups, never more than 5. Lot of people have been telling me that it's just beginner's luck so I should just start betting less. Gambler in me wants to keep putting 10% of roll in play every night. Friends tell me I should only be betting 2-3% max. Appreciate any advice from more seasoned players that have been through big swings. Worst downswing thus far was losing 11 of 12 days.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 04:46 PM

#4883

losing all2

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,168

10% in action on 1 or 2 GPP lineups is ****ing insane bankroll management! I do like 1- 3% with 50+ lineups, and still have pretty brutal swings. and 2 months is nothing, you could be a big winner but 2 months sure doesn't prove it.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 05:29 PM

#4884

Lawnmower Man

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 4,457

Yeah 10% is YOLO territory. A cash rate of 39% is not sustainable if we're talking about the same type of tournament. From what I've seen, mid 20s seems more reasonable. Run a Kelly on .25/20% and it's probably going to tell you to bet like half a unit per event--and even that's a bit liberal since it's assuming the payout structure is completely flat.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 05:54 PM

#4885

kingkang27

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 161

Quote:

Originally Posted by losing all2

Understood. Thank you for your response.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 05:55 PM

#4886

kingkang27

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 161

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man

Good to know. Appreciate it.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:14 PM

#4887

TheNonPareil

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 2,035

Who we got Norris or Vogt???

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:22 PM

#4888

lebron_cramps

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 970

Schwarber Rizzo combo seems mandatory.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:23 PM

#4889

SA16

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 6,972

I got Schwarber Rizzo.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:31 PM

#4890

kingkang27

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 161

I keep flip flopping between Rizzo and Tex. Just been burned so much by Rizzo during his cold streak and missed his last 3 days.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:34 PM

#4891

lebron_cramps

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 970

Quote:

Originally Posted by SA16

I got Schwarber Rizzo.

in love w/ DeGrom as well holds RHB to a .214 avg Washington going to send out 8 RHB if you include the pitcher.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:47 PM

#4892

Wooders0n

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Never played this before, how easy/hard to be like closeish to breakeven without putting any real work in just to have fun?

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:48 PM

#4893

SA16

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 6,972

Depends on how well you know the sport but essentially impossible long term however given variance you can certainly actually have good results with poor lineups for some time.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 06:50 PM

#4894

lebron_cramps

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 970

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Never played this before, how easy/hard to be like closeish to breakeven without putting any real work in just to have fun?

I don't think your going to beat the rake if this is your game plan.

Quote

08-01-2015 , 07:00 PM

#4895

TheNonPareil

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 2,035

Got Rizzo don't love Schwarbs today but certainly an ok play. Rather pay min for guys with the same ceiling

Quote

08-01-2015 , 07:00 PM

#4896

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Best finish so far, so sick tho if Van Slyke gets that 2 R Homer that Grandal later gets (off by about 5 ft or less), if Perez does anything lol and/or if Kershaw gets to go for the complete game (which they brought him out but then pulled em 9th Inning) I'm def in top 3 maybe win it. [Early Slate only btw]

Last edited by ProfBets; 08-01-2015 at 07:11 PM.