On twitter I asked Bales (who has written 2 DFS books and is a DK pro) if he could point me to any content about rostering a high priced hitter vs. your own SP and he told me there's nothing out there. This is a strategy Max used and crushed with it.

So paying $99/month for Bales service is not a good idea IMO.

Regarding projections, my suggestion is to crowd source them. I can think of at least 6 sources to get free projections right now for MLB, probably another 6 if I spent time looking around.

If you had 10 sets of projections for DK, you could see which players are consistently rated high and would be candidates for your main roster. Other players that rate very high on only 2 out of 10 projections, well then you can use them on 20% of your rosters.

If you are playing GPPs, I'd spend less time on projections and more time ramping up your entries. GPPs with automated entry in play now means way less duplicate entries by your opponents.

300/day :O

how many different lineups?

Bales irks me. Nothing against him personally, I just think it's silly that he is considered a DFS authority. There's no way to know if he's even a profitable player, he just asked DK for some data and wrote about it. Since he's the only one to have done so, his books are THE books to read for DFS. And imo, a lot of what he presents leads DFS players in the wrong direction (though I haven't read his most recent book). I hate DFS advice that promotes lineup building formulas or rules, and that's what I think a lot of his work does.

"53.2% of winning cash game lineups pay up at 1B"
"5 man stacks give you the most upside, but 6 man stacks give you the highest floor"
(made up examples, but they reflect the type of data in his books)

People take this stuff as gospel and think they are improving their play but in reality are hindering their growth as players. A good DFS book should, imo, teach you how to think about DFS not, "give you the winning strategies."

Typically 2. I think losing all2 (and I'm sure others/guys who play more GPP than I do) plays a bunch more lineups. You'd have to ask them.

Priptonite - I read Bales book before the year and he does do a lot of stuff like you said. I think stats like that have a lot of biases in the subsets of the data.

oh kk, so you just enter a bunch of 50/50s?

anyone here use winafy? not sure if it's worth paying for monthly

Mix of everything really. H2H, 50/50, double ups, triple ups, 3mans, gpp etc...

As far as getting to the long run and knowing your winrate: It may never happen in DFS. The landscape is changing every day, and the variance is insane. I'm not talking day to day, more like quarter to quarter. I've got a grand total of 9.5 months of MLB DFS experience with an unsustainable ROI around 15%, and that's with a 3 month BE stretch (mid Aug-mid May) and a month where I lost close to everything and almost quit (last May)

And I mix it up as much as possible to limit variance, HA~! I can't imagine the swings of a 1 lineup guy.

300 to lower variance?

lots of great stuff. To answer a question above, I don't have to buy projections. I was curious if they sold them. I wanted to make kinda of a combined rating on players that spread out over say like mlb espn cbs rankings and give me a base as to who the "pros" thought was going to have a good day. The vol I have heard other people playing making my measly 5 games a night look lame. I think the next step is to keep playing and learning, and hopefully make some larger deposits over the next 8 weeks so I can get my volume up enough to really see where I am at.

A second question do you guys prefer making the best lineup you can and rolling it out in 100 % of your action or making 5, 10, or more lineups and spreading your action out. If you make multiple lineups then how many players do you try to keep in your core?

(all the above refers to 50/50 and cash games)

Why not? If some site provided unbiased projections, no one would beat it.* I think it's a bigger problem for dfs than most people realize. Also, it's not like the sites selling projections have to make some perfect model. It's possible that a "just ok" one would beat all of the fish and lose a small amount to the very best players (analog here is the poker TAGfish that makes money from high volume vs. lots of fish while losing slightly to elite players).

*WIth the exception that it's theoretically possible for a (slightly) biased estimator to outperform an unbiased estimator if it has small enough expected prediction error. But I would guess that if I simulated that scenario--with the two aforementioned projection systems facing off in H2H games--both would lose to the rake because it's lol 10%.

Re: Bales

I've read some of his stuff. He's not even working with raw data afaik and what he received was mostly summary statistics in graphs / charts. Like SA said, who knows how this data was subsetted, what biases it may have, or if he is even interpreting it correctly to his readers.

All else equal draft NL pitchers because they don't have to face a DH

Friday's slate looks interesting. Decent top pitchers in tough matchups

Guessing Jose and Gray be the chalk?

Or Kershaw/Hutch

Do you guys think that Kershaw will be north of 30% owned tomorrow?

FD cash games 12.8k

Am I going crazy or is Kershaw not showing up in the player list of the Super Grand Slam tomorrow? It's got Bolsinger going for LOS

Kershaw is not pitching tomorrow

my bad it showed in FD lobby and I rechecked using espn pitching probables.

he'll still prob be 30% owned

Kershaw is listed on dk too

Kershaw was scheduled to start Friday but they changed their mind. Bolsinger Friday, Kershaw Saturday.

Jose is chalk but I hate his price tag

Feels like christmas, gang

No MLB step tourneys running today on DK. Sent an email to customer support. They offered no explanation, and just said they should return within the next couple of days. And they thanked me for my patience and understanding. Of course though, I don't understand it, especially since there's no explanation for it.

Also noticed the ten player tourneys in DK league category aren't there...except for the ones created by players. Anything else missing today?

My guess is with milly maker running they scaled back on offerings for a few days. Heaven forbid they offer overlay!

So is Yahoo basically just a pick'em tonight?