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Old 06-09-2015, 02:22 AM   #3001
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Bolsinger system worked so well I can't even imagine the tales I could regale you with if not for Sale's godlike gem.
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Old 06-09-2015, 02:25 AM   #3002
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Did Max submit a bunch of lineups tonight that had 0 players active?
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Old 06-09-2015, 02:31 AM   #3003
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

that was a couple nights ago
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Old 06-09-2015, 02:32 AM   #3004
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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that was a couple nights ago
Oh ok. That must suck guess it's small price to pay for DFS immortality.
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Old 06-09-2015, 12:58 PM   #3005
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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I have some thoughts.

This was my first year trying this semi-seriously FTR.

I had this notion going in (started during NBA season) that cash games were unbeatable. I heard all of the pro lineup sharing stuff and got turned away from cash games. I figured the big money guarantee advertising would bring the fish in droves (which I think is still true). So I focused my time on the small dollar big field GPPs.

I played mainly all GPPs during NBA and basically broke even, just barely ahead. However, I was not very good at the NBA imo so I wasn't surprised by the results.

However, in the MLB, I feel I'm a much better player. I started out playing mostly GPPs and was treading water. It was very very frustrating because I knew my lineups were pretty solid and I was losing confidence. I also hated becoming so caught up in ownership %s and trying to predict what amateurs would pick so I could go elsewhere. In the end, I switched to 99% cash and never looked back.

Looking back I just think that luck is going to be the predominant factor in your success in the low dollar huge field GPPs. I think a solid player MAY actually have reduced variance in the higher dollar GPPs ($25 as opposed to $1-$5) despite the skill increase. Either way I think you need a HUGE bankroll to withstand that variance. Not that there isn't money to be made in these, there is, but it wasn't right for me. Additionally, I think the time required to be a skilled GPP player is greater than to put together a +EV cash lineup on a given night.

Additionally, I have been putting my cash lineup in the GPPs every night and have seen a nice ROI there as well.

I think you can be profitable in both but I think the luck outweighs the skill in the micro dollar GPP tournaments. You could finish in the top 1% more than your fair share but never get those top 3 places and you pretty much don't make any real money.

So, cliffs I think there is money to be made in both and cash games aren't dead yet.
Nice post. I think the perception of where the money in DFS is is really interesting. It seems that a lot of people have the "cash games are dead" mentality and I wonder how much truth there is to that statement.

Everyone references all of the free advice/projections/optimizers/etc, and those tools certainly help the general public be competitive, but I think it pretty much stops there. Obviously that reduces the edge of better players to some degree, but I doubt it's to the extent that "cash games are dead." Those tools may actually be beneficial to the better players in some regard. As long as the fish think they are competitive, they won't dig deeper and actually try to learn anything.

I think your comment about cash game lineups in GPPs is spot on. Will you win life changing money? Unlikely. Can you get a positive return? Absolutely. The popularity of stacking has made it so that there is a ton of dead money. Even beyond running your cash game team, I think there's a lot of merit to running non-stacked teams that are just iterations of your favorite hitters/pitchers.

It's hilarious to me when people post asking what they're doing wrong because they aren't doing well in GPPs, despite doing everything the "right" way (stacking top/underowned teams, low ownership pitchers, etc). They don't realize that more often then not they are building BAD teams, hoping for extreme outlier performances. While stacks might be more likely to win you a tournament, I've got to think there's money to be made (even if it's not a lot) in GPPs by just entering solid lineups.
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Old 06-09-2015, 01:02 PM   #3006
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Lots of good pitchers today.
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Old 06-09-2015, 01:40 PM   #3007
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by Priptonite View Post
Nice post. I think the perception of where the money in DFS is is really interesting. It seems that a lot of people have the "cash games are dead" mentality and I wonder how much truth there is to that statement.

Everyone references all of the free advice/projections/optimizers/etc, and those tools certainly help the general public be competitive, but I think it pretty much stops there. Obviously that reduces the edge of better players to some degree, but I doubt it's to the extent that "cash games are dead." Those tools may actually be beneficial to the better players in some regard. As long as the fish think they are competitive, they won't dig deeper and actually try to learn anything.

I think your comment about cash game lineups in GPPs is spot on. Will you win life changing money? Unlikely. Can you get a positive return? Absolutely. The popularity of stacking has made it so that there is a ton of dead money. Even beyond running your cash game team, I think there's a lot of merit to running non-stacked teams that are just iterations of your favorite hitters/pitchers.

It's hilarious to me when people post asking what they're doing wrong because they aren't doing well in GPPs, despite doing everything the "right" way (stacking top/underowned teams, low ownership pitchers, etc). They don't realize that more often then not they are building BAD teams, hoping for extreme outlier performances. While stacks might be more likely to win you a tournament, I've got to think there's money to be made (even if it's not a lot) in GPPs by just entering solid lineups.
I also can't really overstate how much better you can make 1 lineup than 40.

When you make 40 lineups as lineups come out and lock approaches, you start hitting submit sooner than you should just to get more combinations.

I can't believe how much I still struggle and tinker up until lock and that's focusing on ONE lineup.
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Old 06-09-2015, 02:15 PM   #3008
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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I also can't really overstate how much better you can make 1 lineup than 40.

When you make 40 lineups as lineups come out and lock approaches, you start hitting submit sooner than you should just to get more combinations.

I can't believe how much I still struggle and tinker up until lock and that's focusing on ONE lineup.
I had similar thinking. I was scared off of a lot of GPPs because of high rake. But there are so many horrid lineups (aka dead money) that it seems smart to drop an entry to at least min cash in the top 18% or so.

Game selection is DFS is so important, not enough time is devoted to that topic.

One thing that still puzzles me is lineup trains in GPPs. The only way to optimize a LU train is to finish 1st (I realize this works for double ups). In GPPs, I think there is very little downside to swapping out one player of your main lineup to create variations, while there is upside that a variation will outperform for a high cash with improved overall ROI.

As for the tinkering, I suffered from over thinking a lot in the past. Now I just limit my research & spreadsheet time to 60 minutes. I set my preliminary lineups and just wait for confirmation of the starters. Stepping away keeps me from the endless tinkering and navel gazing.
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Old 06-09-2015, 02:31 PM   #3009
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

calling my shot - gonna ship multiple gpps tonight. 1 lineup across the board, prolly will make mid 5 figs. gla
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Old 06-09-2015, 03:41 PM   #3010
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

I'm diggin this $250K Rally, lets a guy ball out on a budget. looks like it's gonna easily fill too.
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Old 06-09-2015, 03:46 PM   #3011
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

We should pick a day to run a corporation train on some gpp.
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Old 06-09-2015, 04:25 PM   #3012
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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We should pick a day to run a corporation train on some gpp.
This would be worth it just to crash the RG forum for a day.
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:00 PM   #3013
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Not sure if all the Astros vs Rodon, or alll the Rodon vs the Astros.
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:05 PM   #3014
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Or Rodon AND the Astros
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:09 PM   #3015
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Syndergaard at home. Let's go Mets.
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:37 PM   #3016
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Or Rodon AND the Astros
I mean seriously though is there a team more likely to strikeout 10 plus times and hit 3 or more HR's?
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:38 PM   #3017
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

What's Minnesota looking like tonight weather wise?
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:40 PM   #3018
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by Buffalo66 View Post
This would be worth it just to crash the RG forum for a day.
That is the only reason I want to do it. Kind of a proof of concept.
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:41 PM   #3019
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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That is the only reason I want to do it. Kind of a proof of concept.
Wouldn't this only work if you won? I"m still kind of not understanding it from a strategy point? It's daily anything can happen.
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Old 06-09-2015, 05:44 PM   #3020
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by Priptonite View Post
Not sure if all the Astros vs Rodon, or alll the Rodon vs the Astros.
My first gpp lineup I was like zomg Rodon fistpump. K/9 >9, xFIP < 4, LHP vs AAAstros! Then I looked at team totals and got SHOOK. Just clicking buttons now like I normally do.

Quote:
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Wouldn't this only work if you won? I"m still kind of not understanding it from a strategy point? It's daily anything can happen.
Depends on the payout structure, how often you ship, what % of the lineups cash, etc. But there is no reason why you'd have to ship every time for it to be profitable.
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Old 06-09-2015, 06:45 PM   #3021
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

Looking for Nathan Karns to pitch a good one, and Robbie Ray to live down to his potential. Middling pitchers are like a box of chocolates. That's right.
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Old 06-09-2015, 06:52 PM   #3022
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

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Originally Posted by nutshot2 View Post
calling my shot - gonna ship multiple gpps tonight. 1 lineup across the board, prolly will make mid 5 figs. gla
GOAT calling his shot. Guess I have to settle for 2nd
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Old 06-09-2015, 07:03 PM   #3023
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

I have a lot of Phillies and Marlins... feels bad
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Old 06-09-2015, 07:05 PM   #3024
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

I have a lot of heart
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Old 06-09-2015, 07:06 PM   #3025
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Re: MLB 2015 DFS Thread

I have Royal's in the bunt tonight. Really hoping no one was too in on them.
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