Levarkin,

I'm open to some side bets.

Prime, we're booked for $100 right?

Cool. You're 1-0 against me in those anyway, so you might as well double up. We'll let the auction and draft sort itself out and see where we're at.

I think you got decent value on Montero and the Suzuki signing was meh. I don't see them as overpays though. Though as Karak points out, ranking is less relevant than actual output, and they're closer to a Molina than a McCann. Morales is a bit of an overpay until you consider what 1Bs were going for in this league (my replacement level must have been off because I saw a lot of overpaying at 1B), in context it's okay. I've got to agree with Karak on Gonzalez, I think you're paying for his 90th percentile.

The fundamental flaws in your analysis are a) looking at players on an individual basis in a vacuum, b) failing to adjust for position and c) relying on last year's stats heavily, thus making sample size mistakes.

Much like the major leagues, we pay for the difference in value between our guy and the next best solution. Yeah Suzuki might be one of 5 catchers to hit 15 HR, but how many HR are you gaining by dishing out for him... 2? 3? less?

You fail to consider replacement level players and instead focus on individual's stats.

And comparing Reyes to Morales is not doable. The difference between Reyes and most other SS (with a few exceptions) is enormous. Strong value SS are very hard to come by. Strong value 1Bs are much, much more common. Reyes was admittedly a gamble on my part (due to his health issues), but if he is anything even remotely close to what he is capable of doing, then there are very few players out there to replace him. 1Bs on the other hand? ****... they come along all the time.

Morales, at age 26, had his first good season and sported a 0.355 OBP while maintaining a .329 BABIP with only a 16.8 LD%. Ruh-roh. Someone ran really, really hot.

CHONE has him at 22 HR this year with an expected OBP of 331. Yikes. Hopefully he can run hot again?

I understand your logic, but I disagree. I've never been a fan of spending lots of money on high scarcity positions. If you spend money on a top notch 1B or OF and he goes down it would be relatively easy to get a suitable replacement without a huge drop off to your team. On the other hand if your high priced catcher goes down for the year there is no way in hell you can replace those numbers, you won't even get close.

I'm not saying spending on the top players is wrong, but it is definitely a risk, especially for someone with injury histories.

K now we're just tapping the tank.

Not sure I agree with Jokes though: if I get a C whom I assess to be 10 points above replacement value, and there's no one else in his league (most Cs are hovering 2-3 points above RL), and I get a 1B whom I also assess to be 10 points above replacement value, and there's a few players like him and range in between him and RL . . . what does it matter whether my C or my 1B goes down? You're replacing a guy with a replacement-level player, by definition. RL is lower for Cs than 1Bs, of course, but why is it "easier" to replace a 1B?

it's certainly not in this league since it's a one C league

thunder certainly loves to type.

- i dont think lincecum is overpaid by much if at all. ubaldo on the other hand...
- your pitching is top 4 but unlikely #1.
- montero/cargo/morales are all fine buys. lol joselopez and franklin gutierrez.

slightly above average team imo.

i think sergsz and i have the two best teams in the league

my upside is higher but im also subject to more variance... if that makes sense

Karak,

Probably everything you're saying is true, but here are a few things to consider.

A) I've used this strategy and been very successful with it numerous fantasy leagues b4. Which the strategy is find guys who are strong in certain categories and build around it. I got Mark Reynolds he hits HRs and has a high SLG, so I had to go out and find the best HR/SLG guy I could for cheap. Even if Kendry Morales ran like a Greek God last year, this year he'll still most likely be strongest in HRs and SLG. At worst what 20 HRs and .460 SLG and thats *if he doesn't run like a Greek God again. I could give a **** if his OBP is .051, I'm punting that category anyways. See my hitting only has to be average b/c my pitching WILL be dominant.

B) So yes while I should look at babip's and other stats and not just focus in on one year. By comparison category strengths are a FAR better gamble than paying a guy with a HUGE injury risk $9.1 mil. I always stay away from injury prone players for the wrong price (in snake drafts too high) and that strategy has never failed me. While on the other hand every year some team gets KILLED b/c they pinned their hopes on a guy with a major injury track record.

So which team is going to go #1 in pitching categories across the board? I learned how difficult this was last year with my stupid $60 bet in the midseason league. See being top 4 in all pitching categories across the board makes you #1 b/c nobody else can do it.

sounds good.


on a side note we should start thinking about which night/day is the best for the rookie draft.


on a seperate side note, everyone who's looking at my pitching isn't even considering the possibility I land Strasburg or Chapman or Matsuz

I think calling Reyes a HUGE injury risk is a bit of an exaggeration. Before last year he had 4 consecutive years of 700 (!!!) PA. And his problem right now is some freak thyroid issue. It's not even major enough for them to medicate him.

And I hardly pinned my hopes on Reyes. I still think my team is top 3 in this league with or without him.

We don't need to do the rook draft live. It can be done on the forum. Just give everyone 4-6 hours to pick.

I hope you get one.

Yeah I'd much rather do it this way. 130 picks . . . shouldn't take too long at all, considering that the auction may well be wrapped up by the end of this weekend.

If we start Sunday, would everyone be able to check their PC every 4-6 hours between 8 AM EST and midnight EST?

We'll hold the time limit overnight.

(and if you have to leave you can just PM a list of your pick order priority to a third party or nominate someone not in the league as your proxy. I'm sure I can harass tuq into doing it)

The auction is all done pretty much, why not just randomize the order now and start it up? We can wait to start the clock until Sunday - but maybe we can get a bunch of picks in by then if people are here/happen to be ready.

such an action junkie.

This is the worst logic I have ever seen, and I am a married man.

Awesome.

I think Montero could be a deal if he can get AB's. I am really worried Snyder might end up getting the bulk on the ABs. I have Suzuki valued at $0. It's great that he had a good year on Yahoo last year but we are playing with OBP and Slugging which I think can hurt him a lot.

I think Morales and Gonzales are fine buys but agree that they are nothing special.

Karak, you kind of sound like Thunder when you talk about Mauer.

This is false, clearly my team is the best!

Ok Karak is looking for some props:

I want to prop awesomernutsuck $50 on who is ahead at the all-star break and $50 who is ahead at the end of the season... payable end of season.

I'm also willing to prop SLG% and HRs with most teams, but I'll have to think about it as the draft ends and see what teams want to bet.

If you have any other fun props, let me hear them. We can do a bunch for little amounts of money if you guys want... 5 here 5 there 10 here 10 there.

I can only pay on Stars though.

yeah I'd like to get it fired up soon as well. Sunday works fine for me and I could probably get some picks in b4 that. I do have to work my part time job on Sunday from 5pm to 11pm EST but might be able to cut that down to like 5pm to 10pm or something.



edit: also Karak, I might take some side action with you on HR/SLG need to think it over some more though. See how the rookie draft shakes out too.

My schedule is super eratic but I have an iphone.

Karak: sporting the best non-closer relief corps in the nation.