Quote:
Originally Posted by cookies4u
two questions...
1. is it basically an inevitability that all or the majority of other states will follow suit (it seems like a lot of comments imply this is the case)
2. if answer is yes, how long will DFS remain playable in its current form to > half the US?
It's all just guessing at this point, some can make more educated guesses than others, but really this thing can change so fast that no one really knows. In a span of 2 weeks we had the Ethan story breaking, the NV ban, several other states looking into "fixing" or banning, probably the 3rd biggest site throwing in the towel altogether and Preet riding in on his white horse to finish off the DFS beast once and for all. Pretty grim. Then 3 weeks go by with very little bad news/press. Things started to feel like they were going back to normal. Evan a miserable old **** like me was starting to think the sites were making the kind of deals they should have already had in place to end this craziness, or maybe the whole thing was just running out of steam, then BAM.
My main point being that this situation is dicey and can change in a second, but yeah, I've been thinking about what I'll do under different scenarios, so I'll play along.
Worst case scenario 12 months from now: State after state follows NY's lead, the sites lose in court, big backers pull out. We're left with little or no beatable DFS.
More reasonable WCS: Several states follow NY, Several other states attempt to "fix" DFS with ridiculous regulations (I'm talking the early PA and NJ type proposals with lotto like huge kickbacks and such, total abominations). Most/all small sites go under. After moving to where you can play you're left with smaller, less beatable games. Maybe higher rake, maybe no paypal (or CC's). Tough way to make an easy living.
Reasonable best case: Some states are gone but the games are somewhere close to what they are today in size and quality. I think DFS may have continued to grow for 3-5+ more years, with the games possibly even getting softer over the next 1-2, at least GPP's. That's gone now, imo. The games will head in the other direction, smaller and tougher. So best case this cut out a couple of the glory years.
If my state goes, and I expect it will, I'll take my time and weigh my options, but if it looks doable I will move to play, and I don't care where to. This ship is going down and I'll be goddamned if I'm not gonna be sitting on a beach somewhere with a suitcase full of cash when it's over.