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2024 Fantasy Football Thread 2024 Fantasy Football Thread

06-12-2024 , 11:49 AM
I've been smashing Khalil Herbert. I haven't taken much of Roschon, as I think the Swift signing signals a lot more of what the coaches think of Roschon.

I've been taking chances on Vidal.

I've been drafting quite a bit of Chuba and Bucky, as I expect them to be the clear #2s.

49ers coaches have signed the #2 job is still Mitchell's. I've been taking some of him, but the dude gets injured walking out of the tunnel, so he could easily still be a 0 even if CMC goes down.

I've been taking too much of Tracy, but it's hard not like to like his upside, especially since he can play special teams.

CEH is also a gross but good click, since it's likely he is the clear #2.

I take a little bit of Dobbins, just in case, but he could easily be cut.

I think Estime is sneaky, and I've mostly been fading Javonte, as I don't think the coaches really like him much.

I prefer Laube to Mattison, but I haven't clicked much of either.

One of Sermon or Hull has to be the #2, and my lean is Hull, since Sermon clearly sucks even though Sermon seems to be the early favorite, based on reporting.

I'll also take shots on Keaton, where my RB room is strong. I also kind of like Ali. But I worry if Henry goes down, the coaches will just play Justice Hill, even though he is trash for fantasy. I feel the same about Shipley versus Gainwell. Gainwell probably plays first if Saquon goes down, but there isn't much upside.

I talked about Foreman above.

Tank Bigsby is a gross click, but I take him in correlation sometimes, even though he's live to not be the #2 and there is a good chance he just sucks. Coaches keep talking him up though.

All of the guys above go round 13 or later on Underdog.
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06-12-2024 , 11:52 AM
I like bigsby he will get a decent amount of work with Etienne
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06-12-2024 , 12:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BKGJ
Sorta like indulging with these sorts of paradigmatic strategies but ultimately, and this might not well received here, this isn't poker. Personally, I feel it's a lot better for those who have epic ability to scheme, to borrow terminology from competitive Madden. Most of the assessments I'll rely on in weekly contests this season will come from breaking down play call sheets. The expectations I've set are likely unrealistic but funny enough nearly a decade ago, watched hella film and within the first couple weeks managed to make 6 figures. The GPP metagame is wide open I feel. Anyone whose tried to get deep into study have a different take, that it's actually very difficult to win GPP?
It's difficult in the sense of the run good variance needed to make the finals then have one of the top teams. But I still think there are plenty of edges and agree the metagame is wide open.

I think the number one edge is simply understanding this is a market based game. It sounds simple in theory, but from what I've seen, a lot of drafters aren't good at executing. Hell, I still have a lot to learn, but you really have to build around what the market is giving you.

Too many people are still treating best ball like redraft.

A lot of drafters know WR is important, but they don't really know where to go from there. And when you fall behind at WR, you have to understand how to catch up.

A lot of drafters don't know how to balance the onesie spots. Hell, I'll get to rounds 15-18, and I'm still not really sure how to build out the rest sometimes, especially when it comes to QB or TE.

My most common build on Underdog is 2-6-8-2, but I try to mix it up to avoid every team being like that. I'll see people adding a 3rd QB onto a Josh Allen team. I've done it a few times, but that's only when I ****ed up and drafted a 2nd QB with Allen's bye lol. The same goes for TE. If you draft a top TE like LaPorta, Kelce, etc. you generally don't want to have 3 TEs on that team on Underdog. DK is a little difference since the drafts are 20 rounds. I'll aim for 3-6-9-2 or 2-6-9-3 on those builds.

The most important thing about best ball, imo, is drafting like you're right, especially with regard to draft capital allocation. I.e. if you take Saquon in the second round, then you need to fill out the rest of your draft as if he's a top 5 RB, even if you may not necessarily believe it. If you take LaPorta in the third, you need to draft like he's going to be the top TE of the season.
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06-12-2024 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dgoat
I like bigsby he will get a decent amount of work with Etienne
Well, we all thought that last year too when he was going in the 10th round.
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06-12-2024 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
Well, we all thought that last year too when he was going in the 10th round.
I faded him last year . He’s worth a flier in the 19th or 20th round
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06-12-2024 , 12:22 PM
Agreed. At the end of the day, most picks in those later rounds will mostly be zeros anyways.

Anyone know who this year’s Puka and Kyren are?
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06-12-2024 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
It's difficult in the sense of the run good variance needed to make the finals then have one of the top teams. But I still think there are plenty of edges and agree the metagame is wide open.

I think the number one edge is simply understanding this is a market based game. It sounds simple in theory, but from what I've seen, a lot of drafters aren't good at executing. Hell, I still have a lot to learn, but you really have to build around what the market is giving you.

Too many people are still treating best ball like redraft.

A lot of drafters know WR is important, but they don't really know where to go from there. And when you fall behind at WR, you have to understand how to catch up.

A lot of drafters don't know how to balance the onesie spots. Hell, I'll get to rounds 15-18, and I'm still not really sure how to build out the rest sometimes, especially when it comes to QB or TE.

My most common build on Underdog is 2-6-8-2, but I try to mix it up to avoid every team being like that. I'll see people adding a 3rd QB onto a Josh Allen team. I've done it a few times, but that's only when I ****ed up and drafted a 2nd QB with Allen's bye lol. The same goes for TE. If you draft a top TE like LaPorta, Kelce, etc. you generally don't want to have 3 TEs on that team on Underdog. DK is a little difference since the drafts are 20 rounds. I'll aim for 3-6-9-2 or 2-6-9-3 on those builds.

The most important thing about best ball, imo, is drafting like you're right, especially with regard to draft capital allocation. I.e. if you take Saquon in the second round, then you need to fill out the rest of your draft as if he's a top 5 RB, even if you may not necessarily believe it. If you take LaPorta in the third, you need to draft like he's going to be the top TE of the season.
I suppose I neglected to establish the format I'm referring to which would be the standard weekly contests. Good commentary on the aspect of a market based game.
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06-12-2024 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
Agreed. At the end of the day, most picks in those later rounds will mostly be zeros anyways.

Anyone know who this year’s Puka and Kyren are?
Ugh I had 0 Puka last year . Had a couple Kyrens though
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06-12-2024 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
Agreed. At the end of the day, most picks in those later rounds will mostly be zeros anyways.

Anyone know who this year’s Puka and Kyren are?
I'm not sure there are any rookie receivers that are going to break out from nowhere. If there were, I'd probably have drafted them in our dynasty league. I'm very bullish on McConkey especially in PPR leagues but he isn't exactly a secret. Do like the possibility of Guerendo as a huge upside play, obviously if CMC doesn't go down he's worthless, but I think he's got enough to rise through the steaming pile of oft-injured meh that sits behind McCaffrey if the worst happens
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06-12-2024 , 04:54 PM
What’s with the Wicks love I see everywhere ? Isn’t he the wr4 in Green Bay ?
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06-12-2024 , 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
I'm not sure there are any rookie receivers that are going to break out from nowhere. If there were, I'd probably have drafted them in our dynasty league. I'm very bullish on McConkey especially in PPR leagues but he isn't exactly a secret. Do like the possibility of Guerendo as a huge upside play, obviously if CMC doesn't go down he's worthless, but I think he's got enough to rise through the steaming pile of oft-injured meh that sits behind McCaffrey if the worst happens
Touché, sir. Puka was the perfect whirlwind. Coaches knew they had a gem. And then Kupp gets injured before the season. I think Puka is still great if Kupp is out there from the beginning, but I doubt he quite has the season he had. Kyren was a little more predictable, as McVay seemed to love him the prior season and always seemed to hate Akers.

With that said, my "Puka" candidates, meaning they are rookies that can far outperform ADP and not necessarily have the greatest rookie WR season of all time:

Javon Baker - I also really like Ja'Lynn Polk in the 12th/13th, but he's starting to steam.

Jalen McMillan

Malik Washington

Brendan Rice

Jacob Cowing could also be interesting if one of Deebo or Aiyuk are moved, especially since he will likely be active on gameday as the kick returner.

As far as the other rookies at higher prices, Brian Thomas Jr is my favorite for Underdog best ball, with it being .5 PPR. I think he's live for 1,000+ yards and double digit TDs.

I do like Ladd, but he's not as attractive in .5 PPR, although I still plan to be overweight.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 06-12-2024 at 07:42 PM.
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06-12-2024 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dgoat
What’s with the Wicks love I see everywhere ? Isn’t he the wr4 in Green Bay ?
Once LaFleur compared him to Davante Adams, it was all ova, baby.

Wicks's advanced metrics are solid and he grades out well in reception perception. But I also think he's still the WR4 and only have like 4%. I will not be drafting anymore if he keeps steaming.

People are wish casting him either beating out Doubs or Watson getting injured again. Both are possible, but he costs too much needing those paths. People also seem to ignore Musgrave and Kraft both being solid at TE, plus the RBs. Community group think is playing a part too.

ETA: I'm drafting right now, and he was just taken 113.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 06-12-2024 at 07:41 PM.
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06-12-2024 , 09:12 PM
Just made my first BB of the season. Drafted 4th

QB - Mahomes, Tua, Penix Jr.

RB - Achane, Kamara, Ekeler, Zeke, Gainwell

WR - Reek, Flowers, Odunze, Cooks, Downs, Pearsall, Troy Franklin, Boyd, Elijah Moore

TE - Pitts, Jonnu, Knox Jr.


Went with the homer Phins stack.

Drafted Penix 2nd to last because he was there and banking on Cousin's hold ankle to give out at some point. RIP.

Zeke at 114 felt like a good pick. I know he's been on a decline, but he's still only 28 and should get most of the goal line work back in DAL.
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06-12-2024 , 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
Agreed. At the end of the day, most picks in those later rounds will mostly be zeros anyways.

Anyone know who this year’s Puka and Kyren are?
The answer is nobody yet. As we got closer to the season It appeared Puka was gonna have a nice chance to show himself with Cooper injured. I took a ton of him with the thoughts that he could give me WR3 like numbers for a few weeks and maybe be serviceable after Kupp got back. There wasn't much other competition for targets. I loved what I saw of his college film but obviously was not expecting him to do what he did. I was shocked nobody wanted Kyren in drafts. I knew Mcvay liked to lean on one guy. I thought he had a pretty good shot to be that guy.

I could see K Herbert being the Kyren of this year. His metrics are pretty similar to Swifts as far as running the ball. If Swift went down he could be very solid. This looks to be a team that should score some points. Nobody seems to want him in the drafts I've been in.
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06-12-2024 , 11:37 PM
I've done 20 drafts on DK and just did my first draft $3 on Underdog. Is fragile/hyper fragile RB the in thing here? No team took more than 6 RB's, many had 5 and a few had only 4. I had to remind myself at the last minute that there were only 18 rounds compared to 20 on DK.
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06-12-2024 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
Just made my first BB of the season. Drafted 4th

QB - Mahomes, Tua, Penix Jr.

RB - Achane, Kamara, Ekeler, Zeke, Gainwell

WR - Reek, Flowers, Odunze, Cooks, Downs, Pearsall, Troy Franklin, Boyd, Elijah Moore

TE - Pitts, Jonnu, Knox Jr.


Went with the homer Phins stack.

Drafted Penix 2nd to last because he was there and banking on Cousin's hold ankle to give out at some point. RIP.

Zeke at 114 felt like a good pick. I know he's been on a decline, but he's still only 28 and should get most of the goal line work back in DAL.
I don't like the Penix pick. Mahomes and Tua are both off week 6. I would have grabbed a sure starting QB for a third.

I love the Tyreek, Achane, Tua stack.

I would like to see Mahomes stacked with somebody. I would have taken a Receiver in Rd 4 over Mahomes. I would then target Tua to complete the Tyreek/Achane stack. I would grab Jayden Daniels as well to go with Eckler and give you a nice upside QB.

Your RB's are pretty fragile. Hopefully Achane is extremely efficient again or gets more carries this year. He could be very up and down. The other backs are at the end of their careers so who knows what you'll get. I would love to see one more starter and maybe a younger upside RB drafted for you and take one or two less WR's

Hopefully this is Pitts year. I don't blame you taking a stab with a couple late round TE's.

Last edited by mongidig; 06-12-2024 at 11:58 PM.
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06-13-2024 , 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
I don't like the Penix pick. Mahomes and Tua are both off week 6. I would have grabbed a sure starting QB for a third.

I love the Tyreek, Achane, Tua stack.

I would like to see Mahomes stacked with somebody. I would have taken a Receiver in Rd 4 over Mahomes. I would then target Tua to complete the Tyreek/Achane stack. I would grab Jayden Daniels as well to go with Eckler and give you a nice upside QB.

Your RB's are pretty fragile. Hopefully Achane is extremely efficient again or gets more carries this year. He could be very up and down. The other backs are at the end of their careers so who knows what you'll get. I would love to see one more starter and maybe a younger upside RB drafted for you and take one or two less WR's

Hopefully this is Pitts year. I don't blame you taking a stab with a couple late round TE's.
Thanks. In hindsight I probably should have just taken Lamar to go with Flowers.

This was off the cuff, but now I'm building my chart of teams and players I actually want to target. A lot of guys from this first draft won't make the cut.
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06-13-2024 , 12:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
Once LaFleur compared him to Davante Adams, it was all ova, baby.

Wicks's advanced metrics are solid and he grades out well in reception perception. But I also think he's still the WR4 and only have like 4%. I will not be drafting anymore if he keeps steaming.

People are wish casting him either beating out Doubs or Watson getting injured again. Both are possible, but he costs too much needing those paths. People also seem to ignore Musgrave and Kraft both being solid at TE, plus the RBs. Community group think is playing a part too.

ETA: I'm drafting right now, and he was just taken 113.
I just took him at 123 to go with Jordan Love and Watson. He is WR4 but they like to rotate their receivers so he should be on the field plenty. I think Wicks played 45% last year or something like that.
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06-13-2024 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
I just took him at 123 to go with Jordan Love and Watson. He is WR4 but they like to rotate their receivers so he should be on the field plenty. I think Wicks played 45% last year or something like that.
That was 45% with injuries though .
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06-13-2024 , 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
Thanks. In hindsight I probably should have just taken Lamar to go with Flowers.

This was off the cuff, but now I'm building my chart of teams and players I actually want to target. A lot of guys from this first draft won't make the cut.
I don't love where Flowers is going in drafts. He benefited from Andrews being out. He's a nice player but I just don't think he's a number one. Taking Lamar would have been better than taking a naked Mahomes. Were you can you want to corelate players but don't force it. If you get sniped on a QB just make a plan to back stack another QB later in the draft.

I just winged the first few drafts of this year so I was all over the place.
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06-13-2024 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dgoat
That was 45% with injuries though .
He did well when he was in there. We shall see if he has earned more opportunities. I'm looking at him as the 6th or 7th WR on my squad so I'm not expecting much. I've only taken him when I had Love as my QB.
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06-13-2024 , 12:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
He did well when he was in there. We shall see if he has earned more opportunities. I'm looking at him as the 6th or 7th WR on my squad so I'm not expecting much. I've only taken him when I had Love as my QB.
I feel like he’s going over guys who 100% have roles locked up though . But he has upside if he gets on the field .
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06-13-2024 , 12:33 AM
Just for the heck of it I'll post my first draft from Underdog tonight. I had pick 3.

QB) Love, Stafford

RB) Barkley, Montgomery, Mostert, Robinson, Herbert, Pierce

WR) Tyreek, Kupp, Maclaurin, Watson, Wicks(I would like to have a stronger number 5 but I waited too long ), Mims, Michael Wilson, DJ Chark.

TE) Mcbride, Musgrave.

I'm gonna have to get used to the different interface and only 18 rounds. I have a good feel for how the DK drafts are going. I didn't feel so confident in this one.

I got the Love stack with Watson and Wicks. I wasn't able to get a week 17 bring back from the Minnesota side.

I was trying to set up a Tyreek/Mostert/Tua stack but pushed Tua back a round and got sniped. Plan B ended up being grabbing Stafford to go with Kupp. It also correlates with Mcbride and Wilson for week 17.
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06-13-2024 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dgoat
I feel like he’s going over guys who 100% have roles locked up though . But he has upside if he gets on the field .
I just looked where I got him on Underdog and there were certainly better picks I could have made. In fact, he should be going about 2-3 rounds later. I was overly focused on correlating with Love. I passed up on some good value elsewhere.
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06-13-2024 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
I was trying to set up a Tyreek/Mostert/Tua stack but pushed Tua back a round and got sniped. Plan B ended up being grabbing Stafford to go with Kupp. It also correlates with Mcbride and Wilson for week 17.
Yeah I think I'd like to have at least one draft that stacks the following week 17 match ups

BAL-HOU
DAL-PHI
DET-SF
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