He could certainly be playing well by the fantasy playoffs, but I just don't think the probability is in his favor haha. I also think you're underrating how important the top 10 rounds are, across the whole season. Basically every single sharp fantasy player I follow is fading both Chubb and Hock at their ADP right now.

If you're taking Chubb as your RB3 or 4 by round 9, that's more palatable. That's another reason I haven't taken much of Chubb, as there are plenty of drafts where I'm not taking my first RB until round 8 or 9. I'm just taking the guys I know will be on the field in week 1 instead.

I have picked Chubb a few times recently, but that was mid to late round 12. I have also picked Hock a few times recently, but that was mid to late round 13, and I think once in the 14th.

That's the other thing about both of those guys. I'm not sure how much volume you're putting in now, but I expect both of their ADPs to continue to fall, especially when the news is that they're both hitting PUP. So why not just draft more in a month or two when they are cheaper? You'll be trying to advance round 9 Chubb when teams you'll be facing in the finals will have him in rounds 10, 11, 12, and so on, assuming the main contest you're playing is the DK millionaire.

I think there is a 0% chance Hock is ready for week 1. Even if Chubb will be ready by week 1, I expect the Browns to at the very least put him on training camp PUP. And the market will react negatively to that news, whether correct or not.

That’s a sound strategy . I’ve almost maxed out the 3 dollar on dk . Still not sure how many of the millys I’m gonna do .

This sounds like your building a lot of teams that will be pretty weak at WR if you often already have 2 or 3rb after round 8 and then also take Chubb. I feel he's a player that should mainly be taken on zero or hero RB builds

Nah I’m usually weaker at qb . I’m going wr heavy teams this year

Ah ok I get you and have been building alot of similar teams

Look at Gardner and Fields for QBs

WRs that seem talented & might be able to leap into higher tiers than currently being evaluated for: Dontayvion Wicks, Tank Dell, Greg Dortch, Khalil Shakir, Roman Wilson

Im taking Levis and Bryce young as my qb 2 and 3 usually and I try to get Dak as my qb 1. That’s my usual 3 if I get my wish . It doesn’t always end up that way though

People also sleeping on Michael Wilson in the 15th round. He's set to be the WR2 on the Cardinals I get that he'll be behind MHJ, McBride for targets but can see him returning good value with some nice spike weeks especially if MHJ is a must double team player as projected

He rejected the deal. I started the draft with Lamar then Bijan. My 3rd pick just came up and I had the choice of:

Tua, maye, mccarthy, Goff
Gibbs, Taylor
Nabers, olave, aiyuk, waddle, London
McBride, pitts

I just traded this pick + 2025 1st + 2026 1st for his Ja’mar chase + early 11th this year in startup. I figured with this being a startup plus this year’s performance placing us in the 3 tiers being super important why not go for it this year. Thoughts on this trade?

That looks like far to much to pay to get Chase especially considering the options you had available.

You've pretty much just traded 4.5 1st's for him.

For example lets take Gibbs. Last year he scored 60pts less than Chase did on his stellar rookie season and about the same as he did the past 2 seasons and he's due to see a big uptick in volume going into his 2nd season. Chase is going to have to be the clear WR1 this year for this trade to be worth it imo.

Basically I just don't think this trade improves your chances of winning in year one that much and it weakens you for the future.

I have a feeling that the much bad mouthed Bryce Young is gonna have a solid year. They have added some solid pieces with Brooks, Legette, Sanders and D Johnson. I'm not a fan of little QB's but in fairness he had no talent to throw to last year. He has cheap back stacking options as well.

I also like Levis. I'd much prefer Hopkins over Ridley especially based on their ADP's. I like throwing in a Pollard or Spears in that stack as well.

I agree with all the WRs.

Tank going in the 4th and 5th when Nico is going in the 2nd seems off. I love Nico and I think he is an ascending star but he is in a crowded WR room.

Greg Dortch puts up points when given the opportunity.

Regarding Fields, you can also take Russ late and lock up that QB room. I like this if I get a good but non stud QB as my starter like Purdy, Goff etc. This gives you a solid QB with some nice upside when Fields gets in there while hedging your risk.

Shakir is another ascending talent in an ambiguous WR room.

Roman has a good chance to be WR 2. The Steelers seem to know what they are doing when drafting WR's.

Wicks is a nice talent as well. He would need an injury or two ahead of him to really pay off in such a crowded room.

Regarding Fields. I like taking him with Russ to lock up the QB room. You can get them both very late. I do this when I have grabbed a solid but non stud QB like Purdy or Goff. This gives you a solid starter with an upside guy. If I grabbed one of the stud QB's I don't do this because I'd prefer to not to have a 3 QB build.

I'm full fading Chubb right now. There is too much opportunity cost to be taking him this early. The doctors I've heard don't feel optimistic about his immediate recovery this year. There is no timetable for his return. I agree with Tarhill that his price will probably go down when he is put on PuP. It just seems optimistic that he will be anywhere near what he was if and when he comes back.

If I'm wrong you will definitely be winning the 1.5 million.

I like Michael Wilson . I also like Rashod Bateman for the same reasons

This is a hell of an article by Jakob Sanderson and a must read if you're taking best ball seriously. The ending is behind a paywall, but you should be able to claim a free post on Substack, if you're not already a member, to close it out.

https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/...e-guy-you-need

The thesis is that we should be making archetypal ceiling bets, mainly based on talent, uncertainty and pedigree, rather than players with good median projections due to situation. I.e., Njoku and Bowers are better bets at TE than someone like Jake Ferguson due to talent, even if on the surface their situations look worse.

The article pains me. Ferguson is one of my biggest exposures right now (16%), as I think he does have weekly ceiling and a lot of opportunity in that offense. I think Dak loves to throw to his TE. Jake has some strong things in his favor, such as leading the position in red zone targets last season. I think this offense has a chance to have a clear consolidation between CeeDee/Cooks/Ferguson and the RBs.

However, Jakob's argument is that while all of that may be true, Ferguson is simply a JAG due to athleticism and player pedigree and he's not a great bet for the small sample size for when we need him the most in weeks 15-17, even if his situation looks good on paper. I don't fully agree with Jakob's analysis, specifically with regard to Ferguson. But I do agree with his overall conclusion of chasing certain archetypes.

The main attributes of these archetypes is talent and uncertainty, rather than simply environment. This is one reason why rookies are such great bets in best ball. He argues that trying to lessen variance by spreading player exposures is simply an suboptimal way to play, and that if you're investing heavily in best ball, you should be doing so with at least some degree of intentional player takes.

Jakob asserts, "I don’t think there is a clear cut answer on how much diversification is *optimal* and largely it just comes down to how you prefer to play, and your level of risk tolerance. But no matter how you choose to approach it, you should do it with a clear-eyed understanding that no matter what exposures you draft in the summer, by the time the money is handed out, your exposure to most players in the pool will be 0%."

He then finishes out the article by evaluating spike week players (25+ ppg for WR/RB and 20+ ppg for TE) over the three fantasy playoff weeks for the last four seasons.

One thing I will add with regard to chasing ceiling archetypes instead of median projections, is that I think it's a good idea to have a mix of both. I.e., if you draft guys like Ladd, Coleman, BTj, etc. in the 6th or 7th rounds, adding Cooks in the 11th round isn't so bad, as he can give you the early season median projection to sustain scoring while the rookies adjust to the NFL. And then the rookies give you that end of season upside. The post bye rookie bump is a thing, and while you may draft a bunch of teams with end of season upside, you still have to advance to get there.

Draftkings put up a new draft that’s just week 1-4 . Wonder what strategy works best for those .

Ohh that's quite an interesting one and single entry too which is cool.

Think I'm going to have a good look at the scheduleand do a slow draft from this.

My initial thought for best strat is pick 3-4 teams you feel have the best schedules and stack them as much as possible.

The one I looked at was 150 max entry

Ah damn my mistake.

I may make a couple of entries cause I think it sounds like fun but really trying to avoid most mass entry's this year and stick to the 20max or less ones.

Sorta like indulging with these sorts of paradigmatic strategies but ultimately, and this might not well received here, this isn't poker. Personally, I feel it's a lot better for those who have epic ability to scheme, to borrow terminology from competitive Madden. Most of the assessments I'll rely on in weekly contests this season will come from breaking down play call sheets. The expectations I've set are likely unrealistic but funny enough nearly a decade ago, watched hella film and within the first couple weeks managed to make 6 figures. The GPP metagame is wide open I feel. Anyone whose tried to get deep into study have a different take, that it's actually very difficult to win GPP?

What late round rbs do you guys like ?

Not really looked too much into redraft/best ball (the latter being something I really should look at a lot more this season), but I'm generally looking for players who have some sort of clear route to being the team's RB1 in the event of injury. Basically someone who can carry a workload and would have a solidly defined role. Just scanning through depth charts, I'm thinking players like Benson, Allgeier, Dowdle (although there's some talk I've read that he may be the defacto RB1 ahead of Zeke), Pierce, Bigsby, Mattison, Corum, Allen, Charbonnet and Irving. Not looked at actual ADP of these though as to whether they're actual value

Charb and Rico are good bets, agreed!

Edit: kinda like Ty Chandler for some rzn too

Most of these guys are gone by the 13th in Best Ball and then RB kind of dies.

for 15th rd+ I've been taking shots at Allen, Vidal, Pierce and Laube. Not expecting fireworks but they all should have an opportunity for more snaps with injuries and thats all you can really hope for taking RB's this late

For super late guys I like estime and if I’m desperate I’ll take mattison