Seems like a hold for now. If he's playing alright then you ought to be able to extract a first from a contender mid season. Can't see anyone throwing more than a second at you at this point in time

Doing a dynasty startup (first time doing dynasty in general) format is ppr with 1.5ppr for TEs and superflex

QB/2RB/3WR/TE/2 Flex/Superflex + 20 man bench + 3 taxi spots

Any recommendations on strategy?

Thinking going hero qb type strategy and loading up on WRs, but I’m guessing that’s kinda what everyone will do

Got the 2nd pick, so locked into Allen or Mahomes it seems. Was kinda hoping to draft a little later, but can’t complain too much haha

Yeah, if you can pick someone who will be a contributor for multiple seasons then do so, I would likely take RBs off the board until you've got at least 4-5 other starters, seems pretty damned rare these days where you can get a RB that is going to have a workhorse type of load. At the same time, WR3/flex level production seems to be the easiest thing to replace so if you can't pick someone who is a WR2 then maybe look elsewhere

Of the early RBs (top 12 to 15), I think Bijan, Breece, and Gibbs are the only ones worth it at cost. If you don't hero one of those, then punt to guys like BRob, Moss, Spears, Charbs, Singletary, etc. And take shots on rookies, although this class isn't the best for that.

Hero QB is dangerous, but having one of Mahomes or Josh can make it easier. I'd still try to secure at least 2 QBs within the first 3-5 rounds, then you can punt depth.

WRs and TEs are going to hold a lot of value with that format and starting lineup. I'd aim for one of LaPorta, Bowers, Andrews, McBride, Kincaid, or Pitts, then probably try to add another top 12-15 guy. Flexing TEs can make sense in TEP.

Is it a slow draft? Third round reversal?

Thanks, it’s a slow draft. Normal snake

Nice. With the slow draft, I'd be aggressive with trades, both within the startup picks and future picks. The startup draft provides value opportunities you mostly never get again within a dynasty league. The first startup is tough, but just trust your instincts on values.

So I went very aggressive… I traded my 2025 1st and 2nd + 2.09 in the startup to move up to 5 for Lamar

Have Allen + Lamar as my start

I have literally no idea if that was smart or value… my thought was I’ll likely be good and next yrs draft is relatively weak from skill positions and QBs

Haven’t done dynasty since 2019 but I always felt I was a fish trying to guess what picks in year N+1 were worth. There is something to be said for at least having a haul of picks to use as liquidity for getting trades done.

No idea about the Lamar trade - on surface it doesn’t feel you got fleeced or fleeced the other guy.

Really excited to find the 2024 Fantasy Football thread up and running and I'm definitely looking forward to the season! This will be my second ever season of best ball, so I'll take some lessons from last year into this one.

I will likely wait until late August to get started on drafting best ball teams because I feel that it is only hardcores and well studied drafters getting into it this early. I can't picture any casuals or recreationals drafting in May, June or July. I'm still fairly new to best ball, so I'd just like to be up against a field where I have some edge over some of the drafters. If there is any flaw in my logic here, please feel free to comment or discuss.

I plan to play on Underdog coming up and I still need to do plenty of wagering to clear the $500 bonus from my $500 initial deposit last year. I won't be returning to FanDuel and I simply cashed out all my funds from that site. It wasn't as friendly a site for drafting and I've learned that DFS games aren't my forte. I'll stick mainly the non-tournament format best ball games.

I'll still continue to listen to podcasts leading up to August, but they are mainly for entertainment as well as overall drafting strategies, as I know many player values will be fluctuating over the next three months.

On an entertaining side note, I recently discovered the best ball draft themed porn video that Adam Levitan was talking about on his podcast. I watched a bit of it and it was entertaining. They were drafting a team, and one memorable nickname they gave a player was 'Three Leg Greg' referring to Greg Dulcich LOL. I never knew he was packing heat like that and never heard him referred to that before. If you get curious about this video, you just need to Google 'best ball brunch porn' and that will do the trick.

Allen + Lamar gives you an insane floor. In a vacuum, it's not a bad deal, but trading future draft picks, especially when your team isn't filled out, is risky business. If those picks end up early, you could lose the deal, depending on how the 2025 class shakes out. If those picks end up late, then you'll win the deal. Either way, when you make moves like that, you want it to be for elite assets like Lamar, so overall, still tough to really lose by much.

2.09 is worth around the 1.03 this year. Lamar is worth more than the 1.01. In a general class, anywhere from the top 3 to 6 rookies can be elite prospects. With the 2025 QB class already looking questionable, you'll probably end up winning the deal. But a lot can happen between now and then, so you also want to make that assumption with caution.

Not sure where you're at in the draft now, but with Josh and Lamar, you definitely want to make sure you're leaning more into win now than taking guys that may take a year or 2 to show up, while also still preserving youth and value. It's a tough balance.

I hate having just 1 pick in each round as it creates high variance tough decisions. I like to have multiples, especially grouped closely, if possible. It could be a leak, but given the variance of rookie picks, it simply gives you better chances to hit overall and makes decisions easier. In one league this season, I had the 1.04, 1.05, 1.06, 1.08, 1.12, and 2.02. It helps you not worry as much about player takes and perceived value, especially within tiers. Unlikely that all 6 of those guys hit, but if I can get 3 to 4 out of 6, then it's a big win. Especially in a class as strong as this one. Those picks ended up being Bowers, Odunze, Nabers, McCarthy, Benson, and BTj.

If you're trading future draft picks, especially firsts, make sure you're receiving quality productive long-term assets in return and not rentals that may be worth way less in a year or two.

Mid to late August and that first week of September leading into the season are definitely going to be way more casual infested. But at the same time, you can really only do so many drafts in a 2-3 week window. So it really depends on how much volume you want to have. Drafting now also gives more opportunity to take advantage of bad ADPs. If you're focused on building good rosters, then who you're drafting with really doesn't matter that much, especially with the variance of best ball. It's not the same as being at the poker table with crushers where there are way more decision points throughout the game. If we were playing redraft, I'd be more concerned with wanting to play with casuals than the sharps.

In best ball, everyone in the room is simply taking their 18 to 20 players, most of which are through restricted correlation, if done correctly. And rarely are my decisions based on what others are doing, other than rooms where there are runs on the position or trying to push a player to a later pick depending on what the people behind me have done so far. Drafters mostly going by market ADP makes it even more fluid. Sometimes the casuals actually can really tilt you. I.e., you have London and Pitts setting up a stack and some guy takes Cousins 10 picks ahead of ADP unstacked. At the same time, that also helps, as they're likely just drafting bad teams.

Another thing I've noticed is that even on Underdog, which I think is the sharpest site for best ball, there are a lot of black and red badge players drafting bad teams. I can't say for certain, but I think the "experienced" players drafting bad teams actually focus on other sports on Underdog, but they're throwing bullets into the NFL streets too. They aren't much better than the casuals. For instance, I just opened a slow draft I'm in and a red badge player drafted Dak in the third at 27 to stack with CeeDee when Dak has an ADP of 89.5. And then there are still plenty of non-badge players drafting now too.

At the same time, I'm in some slow drafts right now with some high end players who I watch on YouTube, so I will make some adjustments based on what I expect them to do. Primarily, pounding receivers. Although, one room of sharps duped me into 3 RBs in rounds 1-3, based on falling ADP value lol.

Slow drafts are great, especially if you're not feeling super confident in decisions, as they let you really think through each decision, analyze the board, think about what's available later, etc. You can learn way more thinking through slow draft decisions than the 30 second clock fast drafts.

Obviously, advancing out of your initial draft pod and then through weeks 15 and 16 is important. You have to do that to win. But ultimately, the real goal is that when you do make the finals, you've built a team that has a chance to win. If you have a good understanding of how to do that, it can be done regardless of who is in your room. I'm not really drafting to beat the other 11 players in my draft pod. I'm drafting for the most upside in week 17. Variance will decide the rest.

Wanted to gauge how I’m doing so far in my dynasty slow draft

10tm format is ppr with 1.5ppr for TEs

QB/2RB/3WR/TE/2 Flex/Superflex + 20 man bench + 3 taxi spots

I’ve made a bunch of trades but basically through 10rds my team is below

I have traded away 2025 rds 1-3
I have no pick in rd 10, but I have 2 in 11 and 2 in 12, the only other round I don’t have a pick in is 22

Here’s the roster so far (am I too aggressively 0rb?)

QB - Allen
Rb -
Rb -
Wr - Nabers
Wr - AJB
Wr - Pickens
Te - Andrews
Flex - Kirk
Flex - Coleman
SF - Lamar
Bench - Levis

Plan is to draft 2 more WRs, maybe get Njoku, and then draft a few RBs (pollard, Warren, etc…)

I think that’s a solid build so far. Love the WR room, and if you can still grab Njoku this late in TEP, I’d do it. Especially with three total flex spots. Hard to believe he’s younger than Andrews.

Where’d you take Levis and what QBs were still available? He’s certainly high ceiling low floor, but you can gamble with Josh and Lamar already.

Pollard and Warren are great targets. All you care about is production. Other than the 5 or so elite guys, it’s best to view RBs in 2-3 year windows, so just aim for the ones you think will be productive this season.

Warren (14th), Chuba (17th), and Moss (25th), helped my startup make it to the championship last season, but I lost. I went hero with Gibbs in the late 3rd.

I also landed Hurts, CJ and LaPorta (1.75 TEP), so that helped too.

I tried to hit on WRs and failed. Ended up picking Slayton up off of waivers and playing him in the semis and finals. He was the difference in me winning the semis. Tee, Dotson, Burks, and Jeudy were the core in rounds 4-7. Ick. Grabbed BTj, Adonai and Burton in the rookie draft, so hopefully they can give the squad a boost.

Missed out on Njoku by one. I got sniped on him and AD Mitchell earlier, both by 1 pick

Levis I traded a 16th + a 25 3rd to get back into the 9th round for him. Cousins and Watson were the only others I was considering

Feel pretty good about my next couple, mostly grabbed a bunch of vets and feel like I got Jamo super late (11th)

QB - Allen
Rb - Pollard
Rb - Henry
Wr - Nabers
Wr - AJB
Wr - Pickens
Te - Andrews
Flex - Kirk
Flex - Coleman
SF - Lamar
Bench - Levis
Bench - Ridley
Bench - Diontae
Bench - Jamo

I can understand how you are trying to focus on your own team's roster construction and correlations and less focused on what other teams are doing. At the same time, I'd prefer to be in a player pool where some of the field is making some of the basic fundamental best ball mistakes. I want to face drafters who are targeting their favorite players, over/under drafting at certain positions and missing on stacking opportunities. Even if the donks are making mistakes that hurt me (reaching on Cousins when you already had London and Pitts), its likely they are are also making other errors that decrease their odds of winning or building a better team than you. I love seeing donk mistakes.

One routine I had for my best ball drafts last year was to review all of the drafted teams in a particular draft after completion. If I noticed certain drafters making glaring and obvious mistakes, it let me know whether I was in a good or bad pool of drafters. I could then target those drafts that had those bad drafters registering early.

Its good to know that some of the experienced drafters may just be degenerate gamblers who have built up experience playing other sports. In my case I'm not necessarily focusing on max volume. Ofcourse I would like a certain amount of volume to remove variance and luck and be able to show an edge vs weaker players. But that's why I'll wait until late August. I'll definitely go hard in that short amount of time, but I think it's worth doing that to face weaker competition.

Also in my personal life, I've realized that other things like my health, fitness and social interactions take much higher precendence than my poker and sports gambling habits. As fun and rewarding as poker, sports betting and fantasy can be, the returns that I've gotten have been very minimal compared to the time that I've put in. Whereas, I feel much more satisfied with the returns I've gotten on the time and effort I put into my health and fitness.

As far as my poker playing days, I think most of my profits have come from playing weaker competition made up of casuals and recs. I've never been one to have a pissing contest to let the regs know who the big man on campus is. I know there are players in the poker world who are alot more well studied than I am, so I've generally respected that and focused on the fish.

All fair points. I want to draft a lot of volume, mainly through slows, so I have to draft throughout the summer. I will say, right now I only play time boxed tournaments that open and close within a few weeks. The vast majority of my buy ins are $2-$5, so if I have a bad draft, I don't sweat it too hard. I haven't fired any of the main events that'll be open from right after the real life draft up until the season begins. I do think that drafting those tournaments close to the season start is best. The winner of Best Ball Mania last year drafted his team in late August. With that said, the winners of BBMs 1-3 drafted their teams in June or July.

One thing I do avoid is drafting with YouTube streamers live on stream. It's fun and interactive for the audience to draft with them, but those rooms are all going to be sharper than average.

Since I plan to put in a lot of volume, my main goal is spreading out exposures and building different variations of teams with each player. Using the Spike Week DraftIQ tool makes it a lot easier to pull this data. The fact that I don't think many people are using overlay tools, at least not as robust as Spike Weeks's, makes me feel like I have an edge over the field, even at this point in the drafting season. As we get closer to the season with more info and less time for injuries to occur, I'll consolidate exposures, which I'm starting to gradually do.

I'm 4 months into drafting at this point haha. I could just be a fish, who knows. Last year I did about 200 teams. I'm already past that this year.

I can't quit Jake Ferguson in the 8th.

I’ve been doing a ton of best ball drafts in draftkings.

So far guys I’m drafting heavily based on their adps

Kelce
Ridley
Rashaad white
Chubb
Hockensen

I just joined a similar dyansty start up, but it is 24 team that will be divided into 3 different leagues (of 8 teams) within the league where the top league pays out 44% of the total prize pool, the 2nd tier gets 22% of the pool, the bottom tier gets 12% (win this league and you your return is 1.6x your BI, come in 2nd and you get your money back) and a in-season 24 team tourney divides up the remaining 22%. There is 2 of every NFL player (you can't own any player twice - so you can't own 2 of josh allen, lamar, etc.). There is relegation/ promotion between tier leagues of 2 teams going both ways so the 2 worst from the top league go to the 2nd tier and 2 best from 2nd go to top league. Future draft aren't snake and the teams from the worst league draft first and the top tier league teams draft last.

QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3 Flex/Superflex + 14 man bench + 6 taxi spots

6 pt all TDs, PPR, 1.75 PPR for TE

My question is: How much should I try to trade away future picks and devalue young players (compared to normal dynasty leagues) in hopes of securing a top 8 finish so I can be in the top tier league?

Kelce ADP is steep on DK at 24. I like him better on UD at 38. However, DK scoring is better for Kelce.

I'm not sure what to make of Ridley. I think Hopkins is the better player at this stage of their careers. But I also don't want to fade Ridley with that coaching staff, so I've been mixing him in. I think Will Levis is the smash of this offense, with mixed stacks for all Tenn players. The stack is easy with Levis going so far behind Ridley, Hopkins, Pollard and Spears. Another sign Levis is either way undervalued or the rest of them are overvalued. I've even been mixing Boyd in late with Levis. The only one I'm not bothering to take is Chig. If the ADPs stay this way, I'm going to have a lot of Levis.

I like Rachaad's price better on DK than UD in PPR. He doesn't excite me, but he's definitely live to be another boring big volume fantasy play. I also worry about the loss of Canales.

I don't see it with Chubb or Hock and have been fading. I think they're still way too expensive, granted, they've been falling. I think I might have 1% of each.

Chubb's second surgery was 11/14/23, putting week 1 at around 10 months away. I bet he starts the season on PUP and then slowly works back in. Ford and Foreman are good enough they don't need to rush Chubb back. He can still be a good end of season bet on the right builds, but that's why he needs to be cheaper. Too many zeros and low floor games risked at an ADP of 106 on DK. He's lower on UD at 115, whose scoring also better suits his skillset, and has been falling into the low 130s. But it's still too steep, especially since there's a decent chance he won't be the same player.

Hock is cheaper at 126 on DK and 130 on UD, but his surgery was on 1/29/24, putting 9 months at the end of October. Best case, he's close to being back to full speed by the time the fantasy playoffs start. Another issue is being with a rookie QB and not being healthy enough to practice right now. You can manage, but it almost forces a top 10-12 TE, Hock, plus a late TE. A big investment around a guy we know won't be out there week 1. It's more palatable on DK's 20 man rosters, but on UD it doesn't feel great.

I just think Chubb’s upside in round 8-10 and hocks in round 10-11 are too high to pass up that late . I’m all about value. I also like Levis a lot. He should take a big leap