Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.

But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.

Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.

What do we like and not like?











Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.

Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.

First!

heels, those are pics of players by ADP, with your ownership % under?

Yes, that's correct.

Last night sure was interesting. The below takes are mainly from a best ball perspective.

DJM, Keenan and Odunze were all top 4 round picks. I think DJM falls to the mid 3rd, but I'd be surprised if Keenan or Rome fall too much with both staying in the 4th. Hou is an interesting comparison. Nico 22, Diggs 25, and Tank 38.

What's going to happen with Mayer and Bowers? Both will fall but how far? 11% Bowers and 15% Mayer. Ick. At least Mayer is generally my 2nd TE in my builds.

Can MHJ move up further than 15? I'm not sure, especially if Kyren survives this weekend. But, especially in the WR heavy Underdog environment, I could see MHJ moving up past Gibbs, Kyren, and Saquon to 12 behind Wilson. The Ari landing spot has been pretty baked in for 2+ months. This is very good for McBride too. I think he might be my TE1 this season, but if not, TE2 right behind LaPorta.

I think Nabers will move up to the mid 2nd. I think I'd take him over all 6 WRs ahead of him and put him right behind Achane. I think he's better than Olave, and Diggs, DJM, Nico, Samuel, Aiyuk and Adams will all have more target competition, plus age concerns for guys like Diggs and Adams.

Good night for Puka and Kupp with some talk recently of the Rams wanting to move up for WR or Bowers.

JJ might fall behind Breece and ARSB, but I don't see him falling further than that. Rookie QB, and McCarthy specifically, has already been baked in.

Rice, Hollywood and Worthy will be interesting.

Loving 19% Dimes in the 17th. I wonder how much McCarthy and Nix will rise.

I love where all the WR went for the near and long term. Harrison and Nabers are both elite prospects who should see tons of volume. Harrison may be drafted too high considering the hype (for redraft). Odunze has a lot of competition but Allen is 32 and Moore is only under contract with Chicago through '25. Wright will get overdrafted for re-draft I suspect. However, I'm furious about Bowers going to LV. Could there have been a worse landing spot? Damn you Atlanta for screwing up the Raiders plans. Surprised San Francisco took a WR.

Going to be a lot of variance from late first rookie picks through the later rounds.

Some good profiles in bad spots, some bad profiles in good spots. Troy Franklin with a good profile (bad combine) at 4.03 to his college QB on a WR needy team is interesting. I’m interested to see where he’s drafted. I’m guessing late second, early third.

Where should guys like Nix and Penix be taken?

Stupid Panthers taking a bad profile in the late first.

RBs were as meh as expected. Especially thanks to teams like the Rams and Jets.

Underdog just released BBM5 payouts, and it’s much better than last season, imo. Way flatter with more opportunity for significant payouts.



They did remove regular season prizes, but only the top 1.5% of the 667k field benefited anyways. Some people are upset about it, but I think it’s a good thing, especially for casuals. Put all of the money in the playoffs. Let’s go variance!

It’ll be nice to start drafting best ball with actual landing spots lol. Got crushed on some of my exposures and came out ahead on others. But that’s why I tried my best to not go too heavy on anyone, highest was Andrews at 22%, and focus on good roster construction.

My goal will likely be to keep my highest exposures at 25% or less. I’d like to hit 1,000 drafts, but that might be too much of a grind, even with slows. It’ll probably be closer to 500-750, but we’ll see how it goes!

seems like the most fascinating year i can recall in terms of what a rookie superflex draft should look like. i'm not going to give my thoughts yet for obvious reasons

Draft season this year is going to be a lot of fun. The rookie SF drafts are definitely wide open from what I've seen so far.

After Caleb and Marvin at the top, 3 through somewhere around 15 are going in all sorts of orders. There are definitely tiers and pockets, but it feels like two to two and half 5-7 player tiers.

For redraft, the first round is crazy good. CMC, CD, Reek, Chase, JJ, Bijan, Breece, and ARSB are an insane top 8. Then Puka, AJB, Wilson, and Gibbs right behind them. Then you hit the second round with MHj, London, JT, etc.

I like having a top 8 pick, but being able to get two of the guys that follow is a lot of fun too.

Then TEs are better overall, with the top ones cheaper than ever, since there isn't as much of a premium due to the depth. I have so much of the top 10 TEs. I need more LaPorta and Kincaid, but they are tough clicks for me, based on current ADP. I probably won't add a ton more LaPorta, since I'm fine being light on the TE1 with current prices, but I do need to add more Kincaid. I'll have 15-20% each of McBride, Andrews, Engram and Ferguson. I'm drafting double elite TE often for best ball.

A lot of quality QBs too, plus new guys like Daniels bringing the rushing element. Seems like the Pats might start Brissett out of the gate, which kind of sucks for fantasy, but probably the best for Drake.

Took a look at ESPN rookie PPR positional rankings today:

WR:
Harrison Jr. - 14
Nabers - 28
Odunze - 46
McConkey - 47
K. Coleman - 55

RB:
T. Benson - 45

TE:
Bowers - 13


I like McConkey, Coleman and MHJ alot where they are, but will prob avoid Nabers in that area.

Benson at 45 seems like an easy player to draft. No idea what to make of Bowers.

Kinda intrigued by the Giants new RB and TE (if no Waller) as super late flyers, but both remain unranked.


Thoughts?

Daniel Bellinger was also a 4th round TE pick for the Giants a couple of years so would imagine he would get the TE1 role for them if there is no Waller.

Though that could just be me hoping cause I have him in a couple of Dynasty leagues

Funny where sites like ESPN are right now versus best ball.

Underdog ADP for those guys today is

WR:
Harrison Jr. - 9
Nabers - 19
Odunze - 35 (but falling, he was around 28 pre-draft)
McConkey - 41
K. Coleman - 45

RB:
T. Benson - 30

TE:
Bowers - 10

I'll be smashing Nabers in dynasty and best ball, but I won't be surprised if I don't have any in redraft. I love his game, but his week to week output will likely be inconsistent this season and top 20-25 WR price might be too steep. We'll see where his ADP is in August on ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper.

Other rookies I'm bullish on for best ball right now are

WR:
BTj - 39
Legette - 65 (I'm fading in dynasty and redraft, but he has some nice spike week potential with how I expect the Panthers to use him)
Polk - 71
Baker - 81

KC guys are interesting too. Worthy at 34, Hollywood at 36, and Rice at 37. I think I'll just have a lot of Rice and a lot of 4th round Kelce.

RB:
Brooks - 28
Lloyd - 45
Ray Davis - 50
Not sure what to think of Vidal, but I'll sprinkle him given his competition. Currently 53.

TE:
Sinnott is flying up the boards lol. He's up to TE20. Was more like TE30 pre-draft and wasn't really being drafted at all pre-combine.
I'll have some JT Sanders too in best ball. Currently TE28. His prospect profile kind of sucks, but he's a pass catching TE and Carolina has made it clear they're trying to give Bryce as many options as possible.

yeah, pretty understandable for odunze to drop post-draft for redraft purposes