Quote:
Originally Posted by MizrachiPoker
I can understand how you are trying to focus on your own team's roster construction and correlations and less focused on what other teams are doing. At the same time, I'd prefer to be in a player pool where some of the field is making some of the basic fundamental best ball mistakes. I want to face drafters who are targeting their favorite players, over/under drafting at certain positions and missing on stacking opportunities. Even if the donks are making mistakes that hurt me (reaching on Cousins when you already had London and Pitts), its likely they are are also making other errors that decrease their odds of winning or building a better team than you. I love seeing donk mistakes.
One routine I had for my best ball drafts last year was to review all of the drafted teams in a particular draft after completion. If I noticed certain drafters making glaring and obvious mistakes, it let me know whether I was in a good or bad pool of drafters. I could then target those drafts that had those bad drafters registering early.
Its good to know that some of the experienced drafters may just be degenerate gamblers who have built up experience playing other sports. In my case I'm not necessarily focusing on max volume. Ofcourse I would like a certain amount of volume to remove variance and luck and be able to show an edge vs weaker players. But that's why I'll wait until late August. I'll definitely go hard in that short amount of time, but I think it's worth doing that to face weaker competition.
Also in my personal life, I've realized that other things like my health, fitness and social interactions take much higher precendence than my poker and sports gambling habits. As fun and rewarding as poker, sports betting and fantasy can be, the returns that I've gotten have been very minimal compared to the time that I've put in. Whereas, I feel much more satisfied with the returns I've gotten on the time and effort I put into my health and fitness.
As far as my poker playing days, I think most of my profits have come from playing weaker competition made up of casuals and recs. I've never been one to have a pissing contest to let the regs know who the big man on campus is. I know there are players in the poker world who are alot more well studied than I am, so I've generally respected that and focused on the fish.
If you had London and Pitts and someone sniped Cousins it's not all bad. If Penix is somehow the guy in week 17 and London and Pitts go off that would be ideal. A mistake I see a lot of people making is being overly concerned with correlation. They reach for players. They spend too much draft capital on QB's just for the sake of correlating their WR's. It's important for sure but you don't have to force it. Just have a plan for secondary stacks and let the draft come to you.
As long as you understand how to construct a roster and have a balanced portfolio you will be competitive. August is probably the sweet spot for drafting but I can tell you there are plenty of people making plenty of mistakes right now. Every team I've looked at after the draft has made mistakes. I've made a ton of mistakes.
