Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.

But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.

Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.

What do we like and not like?











Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.

Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.

First!

heels, those are pics of players by ADP, with your ownership % under?

Yes, that's correct.

Last night sure was interesting. The below takes are mainly from a best ball perspective.

DJM, Keenan and Odunze were all top 4 round picks. I think DJM falls to the mid 3rd, but I'd be surprised if Keenan or Rome fall too much with both staying in the 4th. Hou is an interesting comparison. Nico 22, Diggs 25, and Tank 38.

What's going to happen with Mayer and Bowers? Both will fall but how far? 11% Bowers and 15% Mayer. Ick. At least Mayer is generally my 2nd TE in my builds.

Can MHJ move up further than 15? I'm not sure, especially if Kyren survives this weekend. But, especially in the WR heavy Underdog environment, I could see MHJ moving up past Gibbs, Kyren, and Saquon to 12 behind Wilson. The Ari landing spot has been pretty baked in for 2+ months. This is very good for McBride too. I think he might be my TE1 this season, but if not, TE2 right behind LaPorta.

I think Nabers will move up to the mid 2nd. I think I'd take him over all 6 WRs ahead of him and put him right behind Achane. I think he's better than Olave, and Diggs, DJM, Nico, Samuel, Aiyuk and Adams will all have more target competition, plus age concerns for guys like Diggs and Adams.

Good night for Puka and Kupp with some talk recently of the Rams wanting to move up for WR or Bowers.

JJ might fall behind Breece and ARSB, but I don't see him falling further than that. Rookie QB, and McCarthy specifically, has already been baked in.

Rice, Hollywood and Worthy will be interesting.

Loving 19% Dimes in the 17th. I wonder how much McCarthy and Nix will rise.

I love where all the WR went for the near and long term. Harrison and Nabers are both elite prospects who should see tons of volume. Harrison may be drafted too high considering the hype (for redraft). Odunze has a lot of competition but Allen is 32 and Moore is only under contract with Chicago through '25. Wright will get overdrafted for re-draft I suspect. However, I'm furious about Bowers going to LV. Could there have been a worse landing spot? Damn you Atlanta for screwing up the Raiders plans. Surprised San Francisco took a WR.

Going to be a lot of variance from late first rookie picks through the later rounds.

Some good profiles in bad spots, some bad profiles in good spots. Troy Franklin with a good profile (bad combine) at 4.03 to his college QB on a WR needy team is interesting. I’m interested to see where he’s drafted. I’m guessing late second, early third.

Where should guys like Nix and Penix be taken?

Stupid Panthers taking a bad profile in the late first.

RBs were as meh as expected. Especially thanks to teams like the Rams and Jets.

Underdog just released BBM5 payouts, and it’s much better than last season, imo. Way flatter with more opportunity for significant payouts.



They did remove regular season prizes, but only the top 1.5% of the 667k field benefited anyways. Some people are upset about it, but I think it’s a good thing, especially for casuals. Put all of the money in the playoffs. Let’s go variance!

It’ll be nice to start drafting best ball with actual landing spots lol. Got crushed on some of my exposures and came out ahead on others. But that’s why I tried my best to not go too heavy on anyone, highest was Andrews at 22%, and focus on good roster construction.

My goal will likely be to keep my highest exposures at 25% or less. I’d like to hit 1,000 drafts, but that might be too much of a grind, even with slows. It’ll probably be closer to 500-750, but we’ll see how it goes!

seems like the most fascinating year i can recall in terms of what a rookie superflex draft should look like. i'm not going to give my thoughts yet for obvious reasons

Draft season this year is going to be a lot of fun. The rookie SF drafts are definitely wide open from what I've seen so far.

After Caleb and Marvin at the top, 3 through somewhere around 15 are going in all sorts of orders. There are definitely tiers and pockets, but it feels like two to two and half 5-7 player tiers.

For redraft, the first round is crazy good. CMC, CD, Reek, Chase, JJ, Bijan, Breece, and ARSB are an insane top 8. Then Puka, AJB, Wilson, and Gibbs right behind them. Then you hit the second round with MHj, London, JT, etc.

I like having a top 8 pick, but being able to get two of the guys that follow is a lot of fun too.

Then TEs are better overall, with the top ones cheaper than ever, since there isn't as much of a premium due to the depth. I have so much of the top 10 TEs. I need more LaPorta and Kincaid, but they are tough clicks for me, based on current ADP. I probably won't add a ton more LaPorta, since I'm fine being light on the TE1 with current prices, but I do need to add more Kincaid. I'll have 15-20% each of McBride, Andrews, Engram and Ferguson. I'm drafting double elite TE often for best ball.

A lot of quality QBs too, plus new guys like Daniels bringing the rushing element. Seems like the Pats might start Brissett out of the gate, which kind of sucks for fantasy, but probably the best for Drake.

Took a look at ESPN rookie PPR positional rankings today:

WR:
Harrison Jr. - 14
Nabers - 28
Odunze - 46
McConkey - 47
K. Coleman - 55

RB:
T. Benson - 45

TE:
Bowers - 13


I like McConkey, Coleman and MHJ alot where they are, but will prob avoid Nabers in that area.

Benson at 45 seems like an easy player to draft. No idea what to make of Bowers.

Kinda intrigued by the Giants new RB and TE (if no Waller) as super late flyers, but both remain unranked.


Thoughts?

Daniel Bellinger was also a 4th round TE pick for the Giants a couple of years so would imagine he would get the TE1 role for them if there is no Waller.

Though that could just be me hoping cause I have him in a couple of Dynasty leagues

Funny where sites like ESPN are right now versus best ball.

Underdog ADP for those guys today is

WR:
Harrison Jr. - 9
Nabers - 19
Odunze - 35 (but falling, he was around 28 pre-draft)
McConkey - 41
K. Coleman - 45

RB:
T. Benson - 30

TE:
Bowers - 10

I'll be smashing Nabers in dynasty and best ball, but I won't be surprised if I don't have any in redraft. I love his game, but his week to week output will likely be inconsistent this season and top 20-25 WR price might be too steep. We'll see where his ADP is in August on ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper.

Other rookies I'm bullish on for best ball right now are

WR:
BTj - 39
Legette - 65 (I'm fading in dynasty and redraft, but he has some nice spike week potential with how I expect the Panthers to use him)
Polk - 71
Baker - 81

KC guys are interesting too. Worthy at 34, Hollywood at 36, and Rice at 37. I think I'll just have a lot of Rice and a lot of 4th round Kelce.

RB:
Brooks - 28
Lloyd - 45
Ray Davis - 50
Not sure what to think of Vidal, but I'll sprinkle him given his competition. Currently 53.

TE:
Sinnott is flying up the boards lol. He's up to TE20. Was more like TE30 pre-draft and wasn't really being drafted at all pre-combine.
I'll have some JT Sanders too in best ball. Currently TE28. His prospect profile kind of sucks, but he's a pass catching TE and Carolina has made it clear they're trying to give Bryce as many options as possible.

yeah, pretty understandable for odunze to drop post-draft for redraft purposes

Lots of great best ball action out there. I mainly play the low stakes. Here is what I'm currently firing.

$2 buy in $100k guaranteed on Drafters for season long weeks 1-17 tournament. 150 max entry.

$5 buy in Puppy $500k guaranteed went live today on Underdog. Advancement of 2/12, 2/12, 1/10, and 310 seat final. 150 max entry.

$4 buy in Chihuahua $250k guaranteed went live today on Underdog. Advancement of 2/12, 1/9, 1/6, and 217 seat final. 25 max entry.

$10 buy in Golden $50k guaranteed went live today on Underdog. This tournament is real nice. It's a single entry, advancement of 2/12, 1/6, 1/6, and 26 seat final. First place is $10k. It's going to fill quickly, but I'll probably fire my bullet near tournament close.

It really sucks the NFL schedule won't be released until next Thursday. I was hoping it was coming out today. That **** is quite important for best ball haha.

Drafters also has a $20 buy in $15 million guaranteed for their primary championship.

Underdog has Best Ball Mania which is a $25 buy in $15 million guaranteed, a $500 buy in $1 million guaranteed, which has a nice advancement structure, and then they also have a $10 buy in $1 million guaranteed Eliminator which is kind of a hybrid guillotine without waivers. Every week, players are eliminated until the week 17 final. With that said, I think the pay outs are pretty trash relative to the weekly random pod variance and won't be firing any.

And then I didn't even touch on Draftkings, as the above is more than enough to keep me busy, but they have some good tournaments too. Their primary championship is a $20 buy in $15 million guaranteed. They also have a $3 buy in $1 million guaranteed 20 entry max that I'll probably fire, if I have the volume capacity. I might not with all of the options on Drafters and Underdog. I'm about to be in slow draft hell lol.

Unfortunately being from the UK I only have Draft King's as option. So far I've fired 2 of the $3 20max and plan to max that out aswell as any under $10 smaller max entries they add and single entries.

2nd draft I did today I was in the 3 spot and some lucky bugger got JJ dropping to 11th

****, if JJ is falling to 11, I need to do some DK. In the 120 or so drafts I’ve done on UD, I think the furthest I’ve seen him fall is 9.

Well you'll definitely want to join after this. 3rd draft so far and the 1.11 and 1.12 really went after their guys

I'm in the 6th spot and manged to get Herbert and J.J. McCarthy at QB. Think I'll be all over them at their price point, 10th/11th round Herbert seems too good to pass up

Did another today and Stroud went at the 1.05 and Laporta 1.09.

The Stroud team ended up not bad but the Laporta team was a disaster. He took a 5th round Kincaid aswell as a 9th round Engram, interesting strat

DK drafters sound wild. Some of the ADPs on that draft board are pretty crazy compared to what I'm used to on Underdog. I'll definitely be maxing that $3 on DK after seeing this haha.

What should we argue about this off-season, Tarheels2222? Last time it was Gibbs and his year 1 production. Your forecast ended up being very close.

Who will be drafted too high? I'll say Barkley. Underrated? Zach Moss. Give me all of Cincy in 2024. That schedule is SOFT. Also, Richardson stays healthy full season and breaks fantasy. Thus, Pittman will be a steal. Also think Marquise Brown will be a low WR1 in KC. And Bijan ends RB1. No rookie talk for obvious reasons!

How do you feel about double tapping the 5th and 6th round TE's? McBride has mainly been going in the 4th so really couldn't pass on him there and then I just felt Kincaid had the best up side of everyone else there. I did think I'd get Murray coming back to me though.

I also took Andrews and and Pitts at the 5/6 in another so that's why I'm asking

Haha, we are pretty aligned on your initial takes above. Barkley definitely seems like a consensus fade so far, among the sharps. The casuals are still propping him up, which is why he's an early 2nd pick as RB5 right now. I've taken him a couple of times when he fell past ADP, but I doubt I'll have much and he won't be a target in redraft.

I love the Cincy prices. Chase is still in the top half of the 1st, but Tee is mid 4th, Burrow is early to mid 7th, Moss is late 8th/early 9th, and Chase is late 10th/early 11th. Burton is also fun with Boyd gone.

If AR breaks fantasy, I'm still not sure how much Pittman benefits, especially with the AD pick. AR breaking fantasy would be 1,000 yards rushing and 10-15 rushing TDs. With that said, Pittman, AD, and Downs will benefit from a really bad TE room. JT is also the only good back on the roster, so if something happens to him, that would also be a boost to the WRs.

Speaking of JT, I'm still in on him, even though his thesis is similar to Barkley's thesis. Rushing QB with a low pass catching volume projection, but I think JT is a way better runner than Saquon and will have a lot of room to work, as AR is going to be more of a rusher than Hurts between the 20s. JT could average 100 yards rushing per game and has a 15 to 20 TD ceiling.

I was planning to be out on Hollywood and in on Xavier and Rice, but with Rice's situation, I think I'm just going to have to play it through drafting Kelce, Xavier, and Hollywood. I also think Pacheco is a great value.

The top 3 RBs of CMC, Bijan and Breece have a chance to really separate themselves from the rest of the field, as they're the only profiles with a 75%+ snap share projection plus guaranteed passing volume.

I love the bully TE build, especially with current prices. I do my best to always draft at least 1 of the top 10 TEs. LaPorta, Kelce, McBride, Kincaid, Andrews, Pitts, Kittle, Engram, Ferguson, and Njoku. I think I might end up heaviest on Ferguson with his current ADP of 88. Him and Njoku are the end of the line for me, so I have been drafting a lot of both.

But yeah, I have some teams with Kelce/Andrews, McBride/Kincaid, LaPorta/Pitts, etc. LaPorta being the first TE off the board in the mid 3rd is pretty crazy. It's funny, TE is deeper than ever which makes the top guys cheaper, since you don't need to make sure you have one of the top 2-4 to separate yourself. I also saw some data saying like 8-12 are about a round or 2 higher this year, but I think that goes along the line of the quality depth of the position.

There are still some late round TEs I like, but I've never been fan of the builds of 3 to 4 late round TEs, because in these tournament formats, elite TE can separate your roster if you make it to the finals. With that said, the late (post round 10) TEs that I like are Muth, Henry, Juwan, and Jonnu. Otton, Conklin, Fant, and Gesicki are possibly feasible too.

Goedert, Hock, Schultz and Kmet feel like gross clicks right now, but of these 4, I'm still mostly okay with Goedert but also don't really want him to be my first TE. I'm also full fading Musgrave, but that's not a super hot take, as he's TE17. He's been gradually falling since January. I want to say he started out in the 120s to 130s ADP and now he's down to 152.

Also, not sure what to do with Bowers and think he's still a little too expensive, but I also don't want to be at 0%. He's been gradually falling since the draft.

For Cincinnati, I'll add they have one of the better backup QB. I think eventually Browning will get a chance to start somewhere. He looked pretty good last year considering no experience and zero expectation he'd be getting meaningful playing time. Btw, no slander on my Jelani Woods shares!

What is the ideal best ball strategy? I've never played. From what I understand, players like to stack QB/WR and look to week 17 matchups for championship day.

I'm certainly no expert, and this is only my second year heavily investing in best ball, but I've consumed a lot of content. I just throw on YouTube shows while I work, draft, grind poker, etc. and try to learn as much as I can. Some of my favorite channels are below.

Legendary Upside
Ship Chasing
Peter Overzet/Peter Overzet's Deposit Kingdom
Liam Murphy
Spike Week
The Pound

Pat Kerrane and Justin Herzig, who were BBM1 and BBM3 champs, are the sharpest guys in the industry, imo. Justin doesn't have his own channel, but he makes a lot of guest appearances, both on some of the channels above, and other channels. He's apart of ETR. Pat's company is Legendary Upside, and he also appears a lot on Ship Chasing and Pete Overzet's channels.

Justin has made the BBM finals all 4 years, which is insane, considering expectation is something like a finals every 8 to 10 years assuming you're an annual 150 maxer.

The top 10 things I think are important are below.

1. Roster construction and understanding how to allocate draft capital. I.e. if you draft 3 RBs through round 5, then you very likely don't want to draft more than 5 total on an 18 round team or 6 total on a 20 round team. And a lot of times, you might not even want to go more than 4, depending on who the 4 RBs are.

2. Team stacking, both with and without the QB. This can be a combo of all positions.

3. Week 17 game correlation, as you're chasing the ultimate upside when making the finals, since that's where most of the prize money is. However, you also want to be careful to not be too chalky on every team you build. This worked out for me last season with my Puppy team that made the finals. That team drafted CD/Davante at the 1/2 turn instead of the chalky CD/ARSB week 17 Cowboys/Lions game. I ran good and differentiated since Davante ended up outscoring ARSB.

4. WRs are king, especially on Underdog. You generally want to have 2-3 WRs through 5 rounds and generally have 4-7 WRs through 10 rounds.

5. Zero RB or Hero RB are generally the way to go, since quality RBs are more plentiful later in the draft. I.e., the Cincy guys, Pit guys, or guys like Singletary.

6. Don't overdo it on QB or TE. I.e. if you have two QBs or two TEs through round 10, then stop there for the position. In Underdog's 18 round drafts, I try my best to never have more than 5 combined QBs/TEs. And ideally, I'll aim for 4 where possible. In 20 round drafts, you can push it to 5-6.

Spike Week has a philosophy I like that goes along with this of trying to win the flex.

7. Go for unknown rookies, or potential second year/third year breakouts, over dusty vets, especially in the later rounds.

8. Bye weeks aren't super important, imo. However, at the onesie QB/TE positions, you also don't want to take intentional zeros.

9. Gamble and lean into smart, correlated uncertainty. The expected advance rate for weeks 1-14 is 16.67%, so most of your teams aren't going to make it. You want the teams that do make it through to have as much upside as possible.

With that said, you also want to be careful chasing unknown pecking orders on teams. I.e., the Jets RB room. They have Izzy from last year and drafted both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Right now, we have no idea who the #2 is going to be. That will become more clear this summer. I took a lot of zeros last year by drafting too much Damien Harris and Rashad Penny lol.

10. Lean into player takes, both in heavy exposures and heavy fades. With that said, I try my best to not go too hard either way in the earlier rounds and let it sort in the later rounds. You can also lean into positional takes instead of focusing on players. I.e., the TE group starting with LaPorta at the end of round 3 through Njoku at the end of round 8 is strong, with a lot of meat in rounds 4, 5 and 6. I'll be heavier on McBride, Andrews, Pitts, etc. through these rounds than any other players. Some drafters are okay having some player exposures 50%+. I try to keep it to 25% and under, but I think pushing to 30-35% is reasonable. Anything above that just seems like too much for a single player in a game that is already highly variant.

Best ball is definitely way more of a game than simply drafting a fantasy football team based on players you like and don't like, which is more akin to redraft. Not having access to the waiver wire, trades, etc. really means you need to focus on building good teams.

Above all else, you want a good balanced correlated roster construction with a heavy focus on how draft capital is allocated to each position.

I'd start by listening to videos on Legendary Upside, Ship Chasing, and Pete Overzet if you want to start learning. These guys do a ton of strategy videos and a ton of drafting on stream. It's just like watching and learning from poker players grinding on Twitch/YouTube.

If you want to get really heavy into it and put in solid volume, I'd also suggest investing in some type draft caddy tool. There are multiple out there, but the one I use is Spike Week's DraftIQ. It's $39.99/mo, but you get real-time data as you're drafting about player exposures, player correlation, diversification, etc. It's basically a HUD for fantasy football drafting.

respectfully disagree. nice post ty