Roughly 4% to final if you max enter 20 teams. $120 to 4% make the finals where 1/186 takes home $100k seems pretty good. Plus, the fields are soft from the first 3 I've done so far. Underdog is using BBM ADP, which seems bad for the drafters that aren't sure what they're doing.



Spread out bye weeks, play floors, and focus on week 17 correlating without reaching.

So drafting from the 12 spot, I'm not loving how the QBs are falling out. HUrts,Mahomes,Allen gone by 3/4 turn so I could take LJax here. Herbert,burrow, fields gone by the 5/6 turn (sometimes fields there). Then Lawrence gone by 7/8 turn. So outside of taking Lamar at 3/4 it seems tough to get QB value. I kind of like Lamar for a big year so may just pull trigger, but curious if others have QB thoughts? Obviously the Cousins/DJones/Geno category are actually usable if we just wait and no one falls

I like Lamar a lot. If I miss on him and one of Burrow/Herbert/Fields doesn’t drop beyond ADP, I likely just go after the Tua/Dimes/Cousins/Geno tier. I’d say if Watson drops beyond ADP he’s a good gamble too, but I just personally won’t draft him

With Jeudys injury, where do we rank Sutton/Mims/Javonte

Grunching this then reading what everyone else posted...




...

But I'm probably not drafting any of {Mattison, Akers}

Ah no I'm all over Akers. If stays the man main and can keep up his end of season form from last season he's a steal and worth the gamble.

Mattison I have one share of in dynasty as back up but think he could surprise.

Tend to agree with this. Akers could be a league winner available for essentially free

Nevermind. Looks like his ADP has risen quite a bit than I remembered

So it looks like he has a good shot of being on my teams since I plan on WR/WR/QB from #1. Would be happy with Etienne/Akers/Kamara at 4/5 turn

First time playing in like 10 years

12 team PPR. should be a mix of sharps, donks, experienced FF shitregs but idk for sure

1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
FLEX (not super)
TE DEF

(no K)

There is a weekly bonus pool for being highest scoring team, so more incentive to stack/gamble on upside

Thinking of this for draft resources / strat:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.co...iew=draftboard

FantasyPros Projections with my league's scoring settings - consensus of 5/6 sources

Fantasy Pros and Fantasy Footballers podcasts (haven't listened to the 2nd but it had a lot more ratings.

anyone have any free sources they prefer?

__

It seems like drafting 11th I'll almost certainly end up doing:

first 4 picks WR unless the draft's super WR heavy
3 or 4 RB in 5-8 ( basically end up w 4 WR and 3 Rb by 8)
if no one drops hope for a startable QB at 9/10 and 1 more 1-2 rounds later
punt TE (grabbing 2 in the last few rounds hoping 1 work out) and DEF (14 or 15) looking for a last WR/RB somewhere along the way depending on who I like at the end
maybe only get one TE if I like a lot of the late rounders at WR/RB when my picks come up

Right now prior to the start of the year, the most hyped preseason guys that I've been hearing about are Bijon, Gibbs and Waller. Maybe Waller getting the most hype and talk about anyone.

But I'm really curious about Gibbs. Is his production and usage going to be much different that Swift? Both are RBs with pass catching ability with similar size (5'9"). Gibbs is a first round NFL pick while Swift is a second rounder.

Last year Jamaal got 16 touches per game while Swift got 8 touches. Is Gibbs going to be taking the larger share of touches over Montgomery this year?

This is a good point -- all of my responses to the "this or that" assume we're taking folks at current ADP (e.g. so for that TE3-TE8 group that sixfour posted, I still like Kittle the most, even if I have to take him much earlier than Goedert). And for Akers & Mattison in the ~6th-7th round, there are just other guys I'm more interested in (Pickens, Cook, JSN).

Solid plan.

TE: Indeed feels like a great year to punt TE.

QB: I'm not as high on the "post round 10 QBs" as most folks (at least, seems I read puff pieces of Richardson/Picket/Brock...and I'm just not seeing it happen) -- so I'd probably be happy with Cousins as feels like the MIN defense is going to keep the MIN offense throwing a lot. Geno also fine. Tua might fall if casual folks in your league are scared of his injury risk, and I'd be happy with Tua.

WR+RB: Having to start 3WR+Flex and being at the 1/2 turn, some combo of 2 of ARSB/Wilson/Lamb feels like a great start (assuming none of the higher ranked guys fall to you). For RB+WR this year, feels like there are pretty big tier breaks at certain points in the first 8 rounds, so in mocks I find myself either being "the next 10 guys feel the same" or "please please let Quentin Johnson or JSN come to me".

If you can find yourself picking at the end of such tiers that's ideal (might be challenging at 1.11)...but one consequence is that I kinda hate the RBs available at the 5/6 turn (I see a pretty big tier break after Conner/Walker), so I feel forced to take an RB at the 3/4 if I started with 2 WRs (if Breece is falling to you here, I'm snapping him...Etienne also a great pick here too). But I do like RBs at the 7/8 turn, so I'm not panicking if I have only 1 RB after 6 rounds.

I guess my best advice is do mocks on a few free sites to get a feel for the tier breaks (FantasyPros, FFC, Yahoo), since they all have different default ranks & you never know what an actual group of 12 human drafters will do, so just nice to be prepared.

Gibb is a much better player than Swift. The current Lions staff never seemed to be fully on board with Swift, especially with him being so fragile.

Investing the 12th overall pick in a RB is a much bigger difference than simply saying Gibbs was a first and Swift was a second. The Lions were so in love with Gibbs, they wanted to take him at 6, over Bijan. They decided to move back and were ecstatic to still get their guy.

Swift averaged 10.5 touches per game. In PPR, he was still RB17 last season, by average, on that touch count. And even missing 3 games, he was still RB24 by total points.

I expect both Gibbs and Monty to average around 15 touches per game with both being RB2s with RB1 upside each week. That offense is set up perfectly for Gibbs.

Just think about it this way. Ignoring the players involved, the Lions essentially swapped a 4th round pick for a 1st round pick to fill a role they already had filled because they loved the new guy as much as they hated the old guy.

Gibbs doesn't have top 5 season upside at the position unless Monty goes down, but I expect him to provide consistent production with top 5 weekly upside.

Just to dig deeper on one of the questions in rafiki's post, curious how folks think about/rank this tier: Mixon, Rhamondre, Etienne, Gibbs, Hall, Najee. I think that is my current order even though I don't like the idea of drafting mixon, the role is just worth so much. Zeke will be annoying for sure give rhamondre struggled at goal line last year, but rhamondre catch passing ability will shine through i think. Etienne I change my mind every day, sometimes think potential league winner but also worried bigsby just becomes goal line back (also wierd how few passes etienne caught last year). Gibbs so hard to rank, but will certainly catch a lot of balls. Breece potential league winner second half i think. I will not draft najee.

This continues to be the argument for Akers, and it hasn't worked out yet. I mean, the Rams leaned into Henderson to start last season, and that guy isn't even on a team right now.

I worry that Akers is simply going to be the 1st and 2nd down back while Kyren Williams is used a lot on 3rd and in pass pro. This offense is not good enough to be excited about the guy getting most of the rushing work and not much receiving. Akers has yet to receive more than 4 targets in a game playing for the Rams.

I've been drafting Rams some in best ball just because I won't have to make sure Akers is in my lineup when he scores 2 TDs, but the only guys I want in season long managed leagues are Kupp and Higbee. And even drafting Rams in best ball, Kupp and Higbee are easily my highest exposed. 12% Higbee, 11% Kupp, 6% Van, 4% Stafford, 4% Evans (oops haha), 3% Akers, 2% Puka.

Here is how I think about it and rank it.

Mixon - The only one of the group not guaranteed to be in a committee. Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans are not close to Samaje. This is the best offense of the backs listed. Mixon's expected fantasy points based on usage last season was top 5. Dump offs to Mixon are one of the easiest ways for the Bengals to counteract Cover 2 being employed against Chase and Tee. It may not always be pretty, but Mixon's expectation is the highest here, imo.

Breece - The most talented back of this group, imo. The argument is simple. Him and Wilson are easily the best two skill players on the team. When push comes to shove for a team trying to win now, the best players will get the ball. He may start slow, but Cook isn't even practicing right now while Breece is. So I don't really know that this argument holds in suppressing Breece's early season value. I really do think Cook was both a specific request from Rodgers for a vet and because their backups just aren't good enough right now. I expect it to average out to around 65/35 for Breece/Cook.

Etienne - On the second best offense of the group. A young player with elite rushing numbers. Last year was essentially his rookie season, and he was coming off of a tough injury. I expect him to take another step forward. I predict a 65-70% snap share, which should be more than enough. I think he will bump his receiving numbers. I think the Bigsby concerns are overblown. What will hurt Etienne more, potentially, is losing receiving work to Hasty. I'm still willing to bet on a young talented RB in an ascending offense.

Mondre - This one is tough. It really depends on what happens with this offense with BoB. I'm not sure Mondre repeats the receiving numbers from last year, and if not, he's going to have to increase his TD production. Will that happen with Zeke involved? My gut says Mondre isn't as safe as he appears with regard to guaranteed fantasy production. It's tough for me to put him above the 3 above because his offense is worse and he's simply not as talented as Breece/Etienne.

Gibbs - Top 12 pick where the team is going to ensure he's involved. I outlined the bull case for him above. The main concern is lack of top 5 season ceiling without an injury to Monty. I debated ranking him over Mondre. Still not sure I shouldn't.

Najee - Yeah, I probably won't have any of him at cost either. Warren is clearly going to be involved and has looked good doing it. Najee will probably still end up with 15+ touches per game, but with his poor efficiency, it won't be enough to return value at cost. Just take Warren 5-6 rounds later.

Hey guys I just have another best ball question as a newb to it. I tried a few $1 best ball drafts yesterday using the Fantasy Pros best ball rankings. The problem with them, is that they don't reflect some updated information on players like McLaurin, Jeudy, JSN and Dotson. All this despite it saying they are updated today.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rank...heatsheets.php

I then found these rankings from fantasypoints.com for the Underdog top 240 and they seem more updated:

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/ar...all-rankings#/

Just wondering if anyone can recommend the best source of best ball rankings, given the updated injuries and ranking changes that have happened in the past few days? Thanks.

Unfortunately, no one's ranks are going to be adjusted quick enough to keep up with all news being released around this time of year.

My suggestion is to do your best to keep an eye on ADP movement and let the market tell you how to adjust.

Also, sites like Fantasypros are just consensus sources, which includes rankings that simply aren't very sharp. Your best bet is to find some content creators you like and follow their ranks. Unfortunately, a lot are paywalled, but they're going to be so much better than a site like Fantasypros.

https://establishtherun.com/

https://www.legendaryupside.com/

https://flockfantasy.com/

We had a lot of concensus between us, wow.

Can I ask why Bijan way over Saquon? I don't the idea of him being better (age matters), but I'm curious where the WAY better comes from? That offence should we pretty bad I'd think? Saquon should score twice as many TDs in a vacuum, maybe?

Also you think the Ridley stuff is all hype? I wonder how often he's going to be a league winner at his ADP. I agree DK set to have a nice year. But Ridley was a pretty special talent before moving to this kind of offence and a talent like Lawrence.

We agreed in most other spots.

That's amazing, I think we only agreed on ONE. Tight choices.

mine are here, also tough choices in some spots

.5 PPR, 12 teamer, start 1QB/2RB/2WR/2flex/1TE

$300 budget and I'm keeping hurts for $8 & justin jefferson for $20. Who should be my 3rd and final keeper?

Rachaad White $8
Tyler Lockett $12
Mike Williams $10

Mike can be kept for this year and next where the other 2 can be kept for this year + another 2 years - all for modest increases each year. I put them in order of my leans.

Pretty easily Mike Will for me. I’m extremely high on him