Quote:
Originally Posted by rockstar1
Just to dig deeper on one of the questions in rafiki's post, curious how folks think about/rank this tier: Mixon, Rhamondre, Etienne, Gibbs, Hall, Najee. I think that is my current order even though I don't like the idea of drafting mixon, the role is just worth so much. Zeke will be annoying for sure give rhamondre struggled at goal line last year, but rhamondre catch passing ability will shine through i think. Etienne I change my mind every day, sometimes think potential league winner but also worried bigsby just becomes goal line back (also wierd how few passes etienne caught last year). Gibbs so hard to rank, but will certainly catch a lot of balls. Breece potential league winner second half i think. I will not draft najee.
Here is how I think about it and rank it.
Mixon - The only one of the group not guaranteed to be in a committee. Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans are not close to Samaje. This is the best offense of the backs listed. Mixon's expected fantasy points based on usage last season was top 5. Dump offs to Mixon are one of the easiest ways for the Bengals to counteract Cover 2 being employed against Chase and Tee. It may not always be pretty, but Mixon's expectation is the highest here, imo.
Breece - The most talented back of this group, imo. The argument is simple. Him and Wilson are easily the best two skill players on the team. When push comes to shove for a team trying to win now, the best players will get the ball. He may start slow, but Cook isn't even practicing right now while Breece is. So I don't really know that this argument holds in suppressing Breece's early season value. I really do think Cook was both a specific request from Rodgers for a vet and because their backups just aren't good enough right now. I expect it to average out to around 65/35 for Breece/Cook.
Etienne - On the second best offense of the group. A young player with elite rushing numbers. Last year was essentially his rookie season, and he was coming off of a tough injury. I expect him to take another step forward. I predict a 65-70% snap share, which should be more than enough. I think he will bump his receiving numbers. I think the Bigsby concerns are overblown. What will hurt Etienne more, potentially, is losing receiving work to Hasty. I'm still willing to bet on a young talented RB in an ascending offense.
Mondre - This one is tough. It really depends on what happens with this offense with BoB. I'm not sure Mondre repeats the receiving numbers from last year, and if not, he's going to have to increase his TD production. Will that happen with Zeke involved? My gut says Mondre isn't as safe as he appears with regard to guaranteed fantasy production. It's tough for me to put him above the 3 above because his offense is worse and he's simply not as talented as Breece/Etienne.
Gibbs - Top 12 pick where the team is going to ensure he's involved. I outlined the bull case for him above. The main concern is lack of top 5 season ceiling without an injury to Monty. I debated ranking him over Mondre. Still not sure I shouldn't.
Najee - Yeah, I probably won't have any of him at cost either. Warren is clearly going to be involved and has looked good doing it. Najee will probably still end up with 15+ touches per game, but with his poor efficiency, it won't be enough to return value at cost. Just take Warren 5-6 rounds later.
Last edited by tarheels2222; 08-25-2023 at 10:49 AM.