Had my first full season draft last night. I think it’s fine, but going 0rb is always a bit scary haha

Drafted 2nd

10tm .5ppr Qb/2rb/2wr/flex/k/dst

2. Jefferson (CMC went 1)
19. Amon Ra (over Waddle, Jacobs, Wilson). Got sniped on CD and Pollard (big run on RBs like JT, Barkley early in rd 2)
22. G Wilson (chose over Jacobs, Waddle, Hurts, J Allen)
39. Deebo (sniped on Andrews, Walker) Very few RBs here. Keenan and Akers are the next 2 picks
42. Lamar (Ridley, Sanders, Kittle, Mattsion)
59. Hock (Conner, Dalvin)
62. Monty (Javonte)
79. Swift
82. Christian Kirk
99. Dillon
102. Gibson
119. Achane
122. Charbonnet
139. Pats D
142. Bass

Lineup
Qb - Lamar
Rb - Monty
Rb - Swift
Wr - Jefferson
Wr - Amon Ra
Te - Hock
Flex - G Wilson
K - Bass
Dst - Pats
Bench - Deebo, Kirk, Dillon, Gibson, Achane, Charbonnet

I like Brown this year at cost.

In PPR, from weeks 1-6 last year, Hollywood was WR5 by total points and WR7 by average. That comprised of WR25, WR35, WR3, WR11, WR10, and WR32. He was a WR3 or better in every week, even with it being a little inconsistent week to week.

Given his current ADP, it seems like the downside is pretty baked in. His target volume over that stretch was nice. 6, 11, 17, 11, 10, and 9. By the time he returned in week 12, Hopkins was back and then Kyler tore his ACL at the start of the week 14 game (week 13 was their bye).

No Hopkins, a really bad defense, and target competition of Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, rookie Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride, I expect Hollywood to exceed his cost. It won't be pretty or fun to watch, but I don't see how Ari won't be throwing 35x+ a game given they will mostly be losing. This is another reason I'm in on James Conner. He should catch a lot of balls out of the backfield, and he also has no competition.

Give Hollywood a 25-30% target share, Conner a 10-15% target share +15-20 carries, and they should both be able to return value on volume alone, even if it's ugly volume. At least until Conner gets injured from the heavy volume.

I also think Kyler will play at some point this season.

JJ, ARSB, and Wilson is a nice start, but it's rough taking Deebo with your 4th pick when he's mostly going to be on the bench behind your top 3 picks. Sounds like this league is pretty RB heavy. I don’t blame you for fading Jacobs, but he’s probably the pick over ARSB.

But I think you filled out the zero RB strategy relatively well in the back half of the draft. Those guys have upside.

Securing Lamar is also nice, as I think he's a little undervalued behind the top 3.

I'm still not sure how to feel about Hock this year, and especially on a team where you have JJ. I probably would have taken a RB instead, and then targeted Goedert, Waller, etc. But the Minn offense should throw a lot this year.

I love this team. Well done.

Here comes the Etienne rise, whether it's warranted or not. It's a shame, because his price has been so good.

I have him on 16.5% of my best ball teams.

Hey guys, just wanted people's opinions on drafting in leagues throughout June, July and August, before pre-season ends. The question is, is this financially sub-optimal?

Most of the home leagues and casual drafters like to do drafts after pre-season and as close to the start of the season as possible. This totally makes sense given so many of the unknown situations and injuries going into the season. But if these leagues and players are drafting in late August/early September, then are all the drafts being done before this time just all the nerds/hardcores and most studied up and addicted gamblers? It just seems like early drafters would be a more difficult crowd where there would be less likely to have an edge. Add the rake that the websites would take from managers, then the profit margin would then be further reduced.

I may try some best ball leagues for the first time, closer to the end of August. But from my perspective right now, it just doesn't seem like the best use of time and money to be drafting hundreds of best ball leagues through out the summer.

Hello again everyone - Hope you're all doing good!


Just really got into researching fantasy, but 2 things for now:


1. What are we doing with the PHI backfield? Swift, Penny and Gainwell - I have no idea how to value any of them.

2. What are the best sites for best ball drafting? I wanna mix in a few - nothing crazy, like $10-$25.

Don't draft Gainwell
The rest of that backfield will be torture to figure out and at the end of the day probably not significant. Similar to the buffalo backfield. Zomg elite offence, need a share but the QB's vulture enough of the red zone touches that it caps the RB's. This is a bit more of a Buffalo issue but Philly is not immune.
Swift is better, but he's soft. I'd say take the guy with the lower ADP.

I'm just avoiding the Philly backfield, I don't think any of those are good, durable or likely to get any red zone touches

I disagree on the Philly backfield. I agree with all the points made. That being said all of that is already being baked into ADP. Normally where those guys are being drafted there are few if any better rb options

Probably a leak, but I can't stop drafting Penny and Harris at ADP in best ball, especially with Underdog being .5 PPR. I think they both have double digit TD upside.

Sanders/Gainwell/Scott combined for 18 rushing TDs last year, even with Hurts rushing for 13. Penny, when healthy, is the most talented back out of that group. I'm not worried about Swift on the goal line.

Singletary/Cook only had 7 rushing TDs, but Josh also only had 7. I think this is one big reason they went after Harris (and Murray), was to add to the goal line back power. Harris has already shown he has double digit TD upside. He's got 4 inches and 10 pounds on Singletary.

I've done 115 drafts so far. I have 22% Penny and 21% Harris, although, I rarely take them on the same team since they are in the same ADP range. Penny's ADP is RB34 and Harris's ADP is RB40. They go around guys like Gibson, Dillon, Charb, Perine, BRob, Achane, Khalil, Jerick, Mitchell, Jamaal, and I just find myself wanting the guys projected to be the top rushers on the best offenses.

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to get burned by 33 year old Latavius Murray overtaking Harris and Penny being injured by week 4 haha.

Conversely, I have Swift on 1 team total and Cook on 4 teams total. Swift is RB24 and Cook is RB29. Harris and Penny are cheaper, while projecting better from a .5 PPR fantasy prospective. I've mixed in a little bit of Gainwell since he's basically free at RB53. I'd rather have him RB53 than Swift RB24. I will only draft these 3 on teams where I already have Hurts or Josh.

I'll probably fade both backfields in season long, especially for small starting lineups. Deciding when to start them will be tough.

It's all volume based. If you're only going to play in 2 home leagues, then yeah, you want to make sure the guys you are drafting are healthy to start the season and you want as much information as possible about their projected role. If not, it can ruin your fun before the season even begins.

But if you're drafting hundreds of teams, you want to mix in all of the different time periods due to ADP changes, projection changes, injuries, capturing early rookie discounts right after the draft, etc.

For instance, when the injuries to Walker/Charb were announced, they started dropping in drafts. You could draft them at a round+ discount in some rooms. But the current report is they are both very likely to be ready by the start of the season, bringing their price back up. Drafting in that window where they were dropping can give you an edge over the field. Especially a contest like Best Ball Mania that is drafting from May to September. If someone like Aaron Jones tears his ACL tomorrow, all of the drafters getting AJ Dillon at RB33 will have an edge. Injuries, new information, etc. can go both ways.

These RBs threating hold out are also another example. Sure, some of your teams could easily get burned, but if they actually play and crush, then some teams will be getting them at massive values due to the uncertainty dip.

Both the $2 million Best Ball Mania 3 champion and the regular season champion drafted their teams on July 18th last year. That tournament had 450k entrants.

Assuming you're putting in the volume and at least have a decent idea what you're doing, I don't think drafting period is all that relevant. Edges exist in many places.

For redraft I’m probably avoiding the PHI backfield altogether.

I could see myself taking Cook as part of a 0RB squad in redraft - he’s 79th overall / RB30 on FantasyPros for 0.5 PPR - if that’s his price (mid-7th), that feels right. Could see Josh doing a lot less vulturing this year.

Thanks for your reply. I can see how movements in ADP can average out over a very large sample. But then wouldn't it still be the case that only the nerdiest and most hardcore guys who make fantasy their entire life, be the people who are drafting in the summer? Wouldn't that make it much more difficult for competion relative to drafting late Aug/early Sep?

Given that there is a rake of around 10%, it seems similar to a situation of a bunch of strong poker players all playing against each other with no fish in the pool, where almost all the players are marginal losing players because of rake.

Similar to poker, I think it's helpful to evaluate what exactly your edge is in best ball.


Are you that much better at player evaluation? Is there some structural edge that you think has juice that isn't being exploited?


As an example -- when I was doing full-PPR 2RB/3WR/1FLX MFL10s/20s in ~2014-2017, I knew folks were undervaluing 0RB strats (and the WR position in general). That edge is likely gone now (at least if Underdog WR ADP is representative of the new normal -- even if Underdog is 0.5 PPR).


And I know my edge wasn't player evaluation, lol.



I know I'm a fish in today's best ball fields, but that's fine, I'm having fun & like to gamble.

I think you’re overestimating the sharpness impact compared to the field of people drafting best ball.

It’s unlike poker in many ways. Decisions are always face up, smart decisions are mostly limited by ADP and roster construction optimization, once the draft is over there are no more decisions, which lends to exponential variance compared to poker in large field best ball tournaments, etc. Again, volume is king. You’re basically building a portfolio of players, with heavy exposure leaning towards player takes and draft value.

I think you’re thinking too small scale. If I was drafting a 12 man sit & go style, I’d want to draft with as many recs as possible. For large field tournaments, edges can be realized in any room. I watched someone auto a $1k draft in a room on a YouTube stream the other day.

Additionally, I only run fast drafts. The sharp players have limited time, especially at small stakes, to draft fast. They’ll fire a ton of slows at once. I think a lot of them somewhat sacrifice quality for quantity, but when the big payouts are at the top, that’s what you have to do if you have the roll. Ceilings and correlation are mostly what matters, but people have way less time to figure that out in fast versus slow drafts.

There are also entry maxes on all large field tournaments. But volume isn’t everything. The person who took second in Best Ball Mania last year for $1 mil entered 1 team.

With that said, I think Davis said it best.

10 man , full PPR, qb, 3wr, 2rb, te, flex, k, def.

Drafting late in the mock drafts, I find myself getting these first five picks almost every time:

1. Reek/Diggs
2. Lamb
3. Olave
4. Andrews/Najee
5. Lamar/Burrows

Usually getting sniped on Stevenson by a couple of picks.

Is this good? What am I doing at RB?

Stevenson is an awesome target, but Taylor in the 2nd or Breece in the 3rd are also solid RBs in their tiers.

I could be wrong but I’d fade Najee.

Reek in the late 1st of full PPR is sick value (even if it’s at ADP for your draft platform).

In a WR, WR, WR build, I'd be very happy to have Montgomery in Detroit as my RB1 and follow up later Javonte or Perine, and a rookie like Achane. I love Gibbs and think he'll hit Tarheels' ceiling, but Montgomery should have a nice year too.

I am definitely in on Monty at his price. He won’t score 17 rushing TDs, but he has double digit TD upside and does a lot of other things better than Jamaal.

Him and Gibbs will both get theirs.

Detroit’s offense should be fun to watch, especially once Jamo returns.

Still looking for 1 more for this

Late to the party, but still one of the sneakiest sources for good fantasy info on the web given how everything is moving to pay walls.

My current PPR 1Qb ADP darlings.

I'll add a bunch more in a few weeks because I'm way behind on guys, specially rookies (those 3-4 rookie WRs in particular).

I promise no Cowboy homerism here, just worked out that way


Pollard
Lamb
Stevenson
Etienne (is a maybe, ask me in a few weeks)
KWIII
James Conner
Pacheco
Herbert (the QB)
Kirk
Aiyuk (most shaky here, he's a maybe)
Fields
Lawrence (like I'll take him over where Dak goes)
Pickens
Engram
Cousins
Mckinnon
Skyy Moore
Goff
Everett
Geno Smith
Dulcich


I think the lower the QB is on my list the more I like him. So Goff over Cousins seems like a no brainer once I've waited that long. Fields where he's going seems silly. Wonder if that will adjust.

There are an absolute ton of RBs I need to do more work on in that Dobbins, Javonte range. I really don't know what to make of them. Also seems like if you don't get Kelce/Andrews you're kind of nuts not to wait.

What platform is your ADP source?

Don't mind FFC