2022 WSOP POY Dan Zack joined ETR's stream with Justin Herzig yesterday to talk best ball. It was a fun listen getting Dan's perspective. Dan is a bit unconventional, and simplified, in some areas compared to consensus.

Dan and Justin also have a $50k side bet relating to Best Ball Mania.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFthOiC3c2o

I’m with you that the WR tiers in early round 1 seem pretty clear cut (I have Reek in same tier as Kupp to round out the top 4 WRs, but I’m basically always fist-pumping if i get the 1.01 or 1.02 for JJ/Chase in any non-SF league).

Where to place {Kelce, CMC, Ekeler} depends on scoring settings and lineups. Each of these 3 players is their own tier (IMO).

I could see good arguments for Kelce at 1.03 (bcz top TE/QB matters more in 8-man) or 1.05 (after Kupp/Reek) or 1.04 (if y’all really value CMC to take him at 1.03).

Need 2 more for a 12 team dynasty startup. The startup will be a slow draft starting on Monday 8/7. $50 annual dues. On Sleeper.

PM me if interested, and I’ll send more league details.

Interested, sent PM

Need 1 more.

Hey guys, just doing some prep for 10 and 12 team re-draft leagues. I won't be drafting until late August. At the moment, I have just been doing some review of last year's draft and making note of where players finished vs where they were drafted.

I've also been making some notes on the players based on current ADP. There are a few spots where there are some close decisions. Just wanted to run these by for opinions:

Mid to late 1st round RBs: Henry, Pollard and Jacobs.
I've heard the TEN defense will be bad this year, so a negative game script doesn't help Henry. Pollard had a breakout year last year, but he didn't thrive as a goal line back. Jacobs had a huge break out year last year, but I'm not sure if there are any signs of it being replicable. Is it wrong to feel like Pollard is in the best spot here?

2nd round WRs: AJ Brown, Lamb, Adams
These guys seem really close and could all potentially be top 5 WRs on the year.

3rd round WRs: G Wilson, Waddle, Olave, and Higgins
Wilson seems to be the front runner based on being the #1 WR on his team and having Rodgers who has been able to put up the passing numbers to support a lead WR. The other 3 seem fairly close.

3rd round RBs: Mixon, Walker and A Jones
I'd seem to trust Aaron Jones here the most, given he was a top 10 RB last year and seperated his production from AJ Dillon last year. WIth Jordan Love at QB, I'm sure GB will rely on the run game quite a bit. Walker had a great year last year, but SEA did draft an RB in the second round of the draft.

Current half PPR ADP on Underdog has them Pollard RB6 at 20.2, Henry RB8 at 22.4, and Jacobs RB11 at 30.5. Jacobs has been falling due to the contract issues.

Today, I'd probably rank it Pollard > Henry > Jacobs, but this could definitely change over the next month.

They each have pros and cons.

Hopkins should improve the offense overall, and signing him is a signal of Ten intending to compete this season. I haven't paid much attention to defense talk, but Ten had a strong defense last season. The biggest knock for Henry is that Ten's o-line projects to be one of the worst in the league.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pollard has the best season of the 3. His biggest concern at the moment is will Dallas re-sign Zeke or some other back that could limit Pollard's full ceiling? This should hopefully be more clear by the end of August. But their current group of RoJo, Malik Davis, and Deuce Vaughn does not concern me at all. Although, we all know Fat Mike is capable of stupid ****.

I would expect Jacobs to have similar usage to last season, and I don't really see Jimmy G being that big of a downgrade from Carr for fantasy purposes. Jacobs's biggest concern is missing games later in the season, especially if LV is out of it, due to being pissed off about his contract situation. But I expect him to be the starter week 1.

I think Adams > AJB > Lamb. Underdog has them AJB WR6 at 9.2, Lamb WR7 at 11.0, and Adams WR10 at 14.4. But I'm willing to bet on Adams as the best of the 3 who has been fantasy elite for so long. Hell, he put up 7 for 153 and 2 scores with Jarrett Stidham. Also, Adams's overall team is the worst, especially on defense. I expect Adams to have the most targets of the 3, all other things being equal, and especially if Jacobs misses some games. Adams's ADP should also move up a little bit with Jimmy G now officially passing his physical. But ultimately, I'd be happy with any of these 3 guys.

I think Wilson > Waddle > Olave > Higgins. I think Wilson is the clear leader, but I agree, it's pretty close overall for the other 3. Waddle and Higgins both have solid contingent value if their #1s go down. Olave is a risk that he continues to improve from last year and that Carr is an actual upgrade. Michael Thomas's health will also be a factor. At this point, the bet is MT won't make it through the season, but if he does, that could definitely limit Olave's upside. Underdog has it Wilson WR8 at 12.9, Waddle WR11 at 16.3, Olave WR12 at 18.9, and Higgins WR14 at 23.4. Wilson seems like the easy click knowing he will definitely be the WR1 in his offense without much competition plus a QB upgrade over a really good rookie season.

I think Mixon > Jones > Walker. Mixon didn't have the best season last year, and he had one monster fantasy game that boosted him up, but he is projected to be the starter on one of the best offenses in the league with little backfield competition. Jones and Walker both have respectable guys in their committee to share the ball with. I also worry that Jones will not be as effective with Love as he was with Rodgers due to how good Rodgers was at targeting Jones out of the backfield.

I'm mostly fading Walker at cost due to the snap split uncertainty and the fact that he mostly got by on big plays last year, and he wasn't consistently targeted out of the backfield. I expect the receiving game to be where Charb really eats into Walker's upside. Walker should still have some spike weeks, but I think he's going to be frustratingly inconsistent. He's more of a best ball target than redraft, I think.

Current Underdog ADP is Mixon RB15 at 46.1, Walker RB16 at 52.4, and Jones RB17 at 53.3.

Also, another thing about Seattle's offense is that Charb and JSN were 1st and 2nd round additions. It's going to be crowded, especially to start the year. I'm mostly targeting Lockett, JSN, Charb, and Geno while fading the most expensive of DK and Walker.

Having a hard time figuring out who to keep between Saquon and CD

Our league is 10tm .5 ppr
Qb/2rb/2wr/te/2flex deepish bench no ir

$200 auction budget. We are allowed to keep 1 under $30 player and 1 over $30 played (each yr players are kept they escalate in cost $0, $10, $15 incremental, etc…)

I have chase locked in at $20 this year

I can choose between:
CD for $44
Saquon for $45

My lean is Saquon, but if CD still had Moore as OC instead of Shotty I’d probably prefer CD

What should I do here?

Probably Barkley but I can see an argument both ways. Might depend on what you can expect to pick up at RB in the auction?

Draft just finished this afternoon, lineup is:

QB - Herbert, Richardson, Garoppolo, Mayfield
RB - Bijan, Conner, Javonte, Spears, Miller
WR: Diggs, Diontae, Hollywood, Doubs, Campbell, Renfrow, Pierce
TE: Goedert, Okonkwo, Irv Smith, Henry
K: Koo, Prater

I like it, might be a bit weak at WR but think I've got enough options that can go off on any given week in best ball

Yeah I think Barkley probably ends up going for way more than CD, I may be able to scoop CD for about the same price I have him for now, which is probably enough reason to keep Saquon and then target CD or equivalent for around the same price. Top RBs in this league get significantly overpaid for usually

I would keep Barkley and feel pretty good about it esp if you are already keeping Chase and assuming most/all of the stud RBs will be kept he could very well be the best player not kept and cost more than $45

Is that what players go for in that range? It seems high.

I go barkley>CD.

What's our favorite QB-WR stack this year in best ball?

Allen-Diggs
Burrow-Chase
Mahomes-Kelce
Cousins-Jefferson
Prescott-CD
Other?

I listed them in my preferential order. Yes, I know Kelce is a TE, but still worthy of inclusion here.

I'm using the Underdog drafts as my baseline.

I basically never stack Mahomes/Kelce. It's too expensive. Have to take Kelce mid first and Mahomes mid second, and I just really don't like using my 2nd round pick on a QB in non-SF. I"ve never seen Mahomes fall to the mid third. If I take Mahomes (earliest I'll do it is end of 2nd with Chase), I target all of the receivers not named Kadarius Toney since they can all be had past 100 ADP.

Burrow/Chase or Burrow/Higgins is nice. Sometimes I see people do all 3, but that's a little too expensive for me to spend 3 of my first 4 or 5 picks on one offense, even an elite offense like that. The same goes for Hurts/AJB/Devonta, as that has to be done in the first 3 rounds. I do like Hurts/Goedert. But if I do take one of Chase/Higgins, and I don't one of the top 3 elites in the late 2nd/early 3rd, I'm basically always targeting Burrow in the late 4th/early 5th.

It's also fun to week 17 correlate with KC/Cin players in the big field tournaments, which is why I'm fine taking Mahomes end of 2nd when I have Chase.

Diggs/Allen might my favorite since it can be done in the first and third, although, not always a guarantee for Allen to fall to the Diggs team in the third.

Cousins/JJ is nice since Cousins is so cheap, especially if you throw in some Hock/Addison.

I don't have much of Dak since I have been mainly targeting the elite QBs.

One of my favorites is LAC. I don't have a ton of Ekeler as I have been favoring the WRs in round 1, but you can pull off some Herbert/Keenan or Herbert/Big Mike stacks in the 4/5 rounds and then throw in some QJ later on too. I like Everett as well. I'm pretty bullish on him at his price after watching the way Kellen Moore made Schultz relevant. I am very heavy this offense outside of Ekeler.

Tua/Reek or Tua/Waddle is decent since Tua is so cheap, but again, I'm mainly targeting more elite QBs. Sometimes you can do all 3 in SF, but that is also expensive.

Lamar/Andrews can be had sometimes, but this is tough to pull off without reaching into the 2/3 rounds. Occasionally, you can get it late 3rd/early 4th if you're lucky. This one is easier in SF.

Jags are decent since Trevor is a round 6/7 guy and Etienne/Ridley/Kirk are late 3rd to early 5th guys. Throw in some Engram or Zay Jones later on.

Geno and all of the various Seahawks is also pretty easy to pull off.

Pickett and his weapons aren't exciting, but you can also work those in, and I do think that offense will be improved.

I also like stacking QBs with their RBs, especially the non rushing QBs.

Somebody convince me I should believe in Miles Sanders as a 3 down back, and even if he is, that it'll actually translate to fantasy value. I hate that he plays for my team now.

What's the competition on the roster?
Not sure Reich or Staley have a history of of using bellcows. Think it's reasonable to pencil him in for right around 1k rushing, 6TD and 30'ish catches? So maybe a solid RB2. What's his ADP now? Is he being drafted before RB18?

I am in the middle of a slow draft on underdog, SF format, and with my first 3 picks I have Allen, Diggs, and Goff. Figure I'll grab RB with my next pick, and then either WR or a third QB. I'm hoping the Allen/Diggs stack pays off. May try for Jameson Williams later. Gibbs is still available as well.

The competition is minimal. Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear.

Reich drafted JT so there is precedent. Reich has been touting Sanders as a 3 down back. 1k, 6, 30, 250, and 2 is the floor case if he stays healthy. That'd put him at roughly 12 ppg in PPR. That'd make him RB25 last season. He's currently RB20 on Underdog's .5 PPR ADP. JK, Mattison, Jones immediately in front of him, and Akers, Pierce, Swift immediately behind him.

The bull case is there, but I just think the guy sucks haha. In the world of RB contract disputes, Miles somehow got the best contract of all FAs.

The SF drafts are wild. Each one seems to be very different, whereas the 1QB usually goes relatively close along ADP. From the early 1st, I usually do what you do. 2 QBs and either my favorite WR or RB on the board through 3. Some people will take 3 QBs in their first 3 picks, and I think that's bad. It raises your weekly floor, but it demolishes your weekly ceiling.

Then, I'll take a lot of RBs at the 4/5 turn. Breece, Jacobs, Gibbs can all be there. I also like Najee and Etienne. I'll take 2 RBs at 4/5 a lot. Then I usually aim to get a QB at the 6/7 turn of one of the final week 1 starters. Tannehill is my favorite, especially if you can stack him with Hopkins.

WR isn't as valuable in this format, so I'll do a lot of hero WR builds, like you have with Diggs. Hit RBs at 4/5, QB/TE/RB at 6/7, then build WR from there. The WR value tends to drop.

I usually take a correlated backup QB with upside at the end of the draft as my 4th QB, as long as I don't already have the starter. I don't think handcuffing is good, even at QB. Guys like Mike White with Tua or Reek. Mariota with AJB, Devonta or Geodert. Heinicke with London, Pitts, or Bijan.

I also think week 17 QB correlation is super strong in SF.

New to best ball did a DK one, how’d I do from the 11 spot

Qb - Dak, Jimmy G

Rb - Breece, Dillon, achane, Mitchell, Warren, Singletary, Fournette

Wr - Lamb, Adams, Nuk, Marquise Brown, Cooks, Reed, Hardman, Arob

Te - Kittle, Musgrave, Ferguson

Got sniped on a couple good RBs in the 7-10 rds so I’m a little light on rb. Tried to get a 3rd qb, but there was a run and didn’t feel like drafting Desmond ridder at 180ish

There's currently 1 spot in the 6th year of my 2+2 $25 redraft league if anyone would like to join?

There could also be two more spaces.

Roster: QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX(RB,WR,TE)/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN/IR
Scoring: Sleeper standard except it will be 6pt passing touchdown
Waiver Type: Free agent auction (continuous) $1000 budget
Play offs: 6 teams (top 2 seeded teams get a bye)

Much more helpful to see the full draft board than your roster. Then you get more valuable feedback regarding decisions you made.

At first glance, I don’t love it, though I’m trying to snag Breece in most formats at ADP - looks like you got him in the 3rd, which is nice.

Really like Cooks in a best ball format as WR5 as he probably still has a couple 100/2 games left in him but as you said 'a little light at RB' which is an understatement.

Agree with skipping on Ridder - doubt there are many weeks where he outscores Dak/JimmyG

Brown had 1 good game with Murray and was a replacement level player with Mccoy/Blough so curious what RB/TEs you passed on to grab him

I have Kittle so I wasn’t considering te at the spot I drafted Brown. The RBs after him were Sanders/Akers/Swift/Pierce