I like Denver too this year. Re: Russ, I think his days as an elite fantasy QB are over, but he should bounce back and be solid at least. Denver, in addition to the huge coaching upgrade, will hopefully not be so decimated by injuries on offense as they were last season. I am targeting Jeudy at ADP and Perine too. Perine has always looked good and has three down skill set. If I recall correctly, Payton's pitch to hi was "have you seen the way I distribute carries to RB?" But yeah, I do need to consider Russ in the 3rd especially if it's a late 3rd. Then there's Dulcic who gets utilized wonderfully. He's never blocking.

Where do we think Cook ends up if Miami doesn't work out? Hopkins? I'm thinking New England.

NE is reportedly the favorite for both, but it's starting to seem like it won't really matter for fantasy. Neither player, nor guys like Zeke, Fournette, and Hunt, seem valued by the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised if all 5 scored outside of the top 36 in their respective position, assuming they all even play. The NFL destroys value quickly.

So far, I've completed 78 best ball drafts combined on Underdog, 61 non-SF and 17 SF. Here are a few observations so far from a non-SF standpoint.

SF: CMC 3.8, Deebo 33.7, Aiyuk 50.9, and Kittle 61.0. Brock is 172.7, Trey is 212.2, and Darnold is 215.8. Trey and Darnold are basically undrafted at this point.

It's crazy to have 4 offensive guys in the top 61, with a lot of CMC's value coming from pass catching, when we don't even know the QB. I've basically been fading all 4 until we have more certainty, and even if Brock or Darnold is the guy, I'm not sure I like any of the pass catchers at ADP. CMC would be fine in season long redraft, but in Underdog’s environment, it’s tough to take him over the top the receivers.

If Lance is the guy, they are all toast at ADP, imo. The assumption at this point seems to be Brock is the week 1 starter, but I think that's far from a guarantee. He’s still 172.7 in ADP with all of his weapons in the top 5 rounds of the draft.

LAC: Ekeler 8.1, Keenan 35.7, Big Mike 45.9, Herbert 54.6, QJ 79.9, Everett 155.3, what are we even doing here? Ekeler is fairly priced, but everyone else seems like a crazy value, especially when you compare it to SF above and the Jacksonville guys. Herbert could be the steal of the year. Let's not forget his first two years, especially when considering his rib injury + weapon injuries last season.

Sea: DK 28.7, Walker 52.4, JSN 63.2, Lockett 64.4, Charbonnet 100.0, Geno 114.4, all seem like values outside of DK, who I have basically none of. My opinion is unpopular, but it wouldn't surprise me if DK was the odd man by the end of the season. Everyone assumes it's Lockett, but Lockett is really ****ing good; I think better than DK from a pure receiver standpoint. I believe JSN is the best of the 3, so I think he will work his way in by the end of the season, regardless. And really, none of that is a knock on DK who is a muscular beast that is also really good at receiver. It just so happens that Lockett and JSN are both also really good at receiver.

I have a decent amount of Walker, JSN, Lockett, and a little bit of Charb and Geno. I'll be targeting Charb instead of Walker in season long redraft, but Walker seems better in best ball. Geno seems like a crazy value given he added offensive weapons in rounds 1 and 2 of the draft coming off of last season; QB5 by total scoring and QB8 by average.

Ravens: Andrews 29.7, Lamar 34..9, JK 57.6, Rashod 88.8, Zay 89.8, Odell 112.1, and Gus 185. I've even been taking some Likely at 204.8. Lamar is a former MVP who got his contract and has his best and most healthy weapons ever. He also got an OC upgrade. I've mostly been fading Andrews, as I think TE behind Kelce is still a pretty flat line, but I've been drafting a lot of everyone else. Probably too much of Rashod, Zay and Odell, but someone else has to catch the ball besides Mark.

KAllen at 35.7 has to be the steal of the draft. His game should translate well into older WR age. I love him in 2023 in any PPR format. In any event, the LAC guys seem to be a real nice value with the OC change, a healthier OL, and Herbert not playing with broken ribs.

For Baltimore, Rashod Bateman has been pretty damn good when he's been able to stay on the field.

Where is Drake London going in those best ball drafts?

As for Cook, I don't think he's washed the way Zeke clearly is. But he's on the downslope, and I'm not particularly high on him as a fantasy asset. Vikings cut him more for salary cap reasons.

I can't find the post but Cook was near the bottom 20% of nearly every rushing metric last year. Like Zeke may have still been worse but Cook definitely showed all the signs of a washed RB.

I think Zeke just seemed more washed because he became the clear RB2 of the team where as Cook still had the RB1 role all season

UD is .5 PPR, but I still feel the same way on Keenan. Everyone seems to give weight to his injuries last year, but they forget what he did once he returned. He returned in week 11. From week 11 to 17, Keenan, by average, was WR11 in .5 PPR and WR11 in PPR. He's currently WR19 at ADP.

And I do not think people are giving enough weight to the upgrade from Lombardi to Moore in that offense.

Bateman has definitely been good when he's been on the field. I still think he's the WR1 in this offense until proven otherwise, regardless of his injury history. Even with the Odell contract, mainly because I think Odell is probably washed. And Zay has potential, but he's still just a rookie who wasn't elite in college.

Drake London is ADP 43 and WR22, which I think is fair. But that tells you how heavy WR is in these drafts haha. Half of the first 43 picks are WR.

As far as Cook, like JEC said, he was at the bottom in almost all RB metrics. Additionally, my perception analysis is that the Vikings are a win now team. If they actually thought Cook still had juice, his cap hit should basically be irrelevant if they think he has the ability to lead this backfield given their team position. Instead, they are rolling with Mattison, Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu, and Dwyane McBride.

That tells me two things. Cook is likely washed, and the Vikings are going to be throwing a **** ton. Like probably 70-75% of plays. The pass catchers, outside of JJ, are probably not valued enough. Hock is TE3 at ADP 52.5, and Addison is WR37 at ADP 72.4. KJ Osborn is WR66 at ADP 150.3. They also don't play defense. JJ is the most slam dunk 1.01 in quite some time, imo. And I still really like Chase, Kupp, and Reek. I think the draft actually starts after those 4.

Osborn in particular I think is going to be a great best ball target

For sure.

Cousins is probably too cheap too. QB13 with an ADP of 111.6.

Pat
Jalen
Josh
Lamar
Burrow
Fields
Herbert
Trevor
Deshaun
Tua
AR
Dak
Cousins

I could probably argue for him to be as high as QB8.

And even some of the guys behind him I like. Danny, Geno, Goff, etc.

QB might be as deep as it’s ever been, while also being as valuable at the top as it’s ever been.

I would have to see the source for this - Cook was the 6th leading rusher and had a respectable 4.4ypc with 10 scores, added in 39 catches and had the longest run of his career in 2022. That is nowhere near 'washed RB' territory

Dalvin got by on total volume alone last year. He had the second most rushing attempts and second most targets of his career, while averaging less per game on pretty much all base statistics. He may not be washed in the sense that he should retire from the NFL, but based on the metrics, he is on the decline.

Additionally, Minn was basically the nut spot for him. They don't have **** behind Mattison and Mattison is JAG. Plus, they are one of the faster and more offensively powered teams in the league.

In games where Dalvin had less than 70% of the snaps, in PPR, he was RB37, RB20, RB28, RB6, RB33, and RB44.

In games where Dalvin had more than 70% of the snaps, in PPR, he was RB20, RB13, RB8, RB14, RB2, RB33, RB14, RB26, RB2, and RB25

I don't see a projected landing spot where he would be a workhorse.

yeah, Cook is a dead zone back now, whereas I'm not sure why anyone would even sign Zeke and certainly not even draft him in ff no matter what round. If Cook ends up on say Denver or the Jets, he's going to be very annoying. Or maybe he falls off a cliff in 2023. IMO he'd be great on Dallas. Get some tough yards and allow Pollard to stay fresh. I mean we don't think Pollard is getting 75+ percent of the workload, do we? I still think Miami will sign Cook and he'll fit in ok for real football.

I’ve taken some late round Zeke. Currently RB55 with 177.9 ADP. I don’t feel excited about it, but I figure he could find a role where he has a few games that he falls into the end zone twice; especially if he ends up back in Dallas.

Probably taking more Zeke and Fournette than I should haha.

I’ve completely faded Dalvin and Hunt.

Dalvin is also way more expensive than the other 3.

Dalvin already reportedly turned down Mia’s lowball offer.

In one of the Scott Fish Bowl mirror leagues, so not SFB13 proper but one run by them with the same rule set, main weird scoring this year is that it's superflex with pretty high QB scoring as well as various first down bonuses and 2 PPR for TEs, so the draft is going to be funky

My longest running league has voted to switch from 2QB to super flex after some shenanigans last year with playoff teams hoarding QBs.

It’s a snake. Am I wrong to think the value of your first 2 QBs basically remains unchanged between 2QB and SF? Like you still usually want to snag at least two before round 4 at the latest

I won last year with Mahomes + a rotating cast of dog crap though.

QBs are still very valuable in SF, but not quite as much in 2QB since you're only required to start 1 each week instead of 2.

Last year, a QB2, by average, ranged from 15.1 to 18.3. That's low-end RB1 and low-end WR1 in PPR.

A QB3, by average, ranged from 12.3 to 15.1. That's RB2 and WR2/WR3 range in PPR.

So, generally, you want a QB in your SF spot but there can be arguments made for other positions to start there instead of QB, depending on your options.

It's easier to punt QB, especially your 2nd one, in SF, and knowing backups will become options as the season goes on.

In PPR last year, by average, 11 of the top 24 overall scorers were non-QBs. And 25 of the top 48 overall scorers, by average, were non-QBs. And those are just raw scoring averages without considering games played. Guys like Darnold, Jameis, Michael Thomas, etc. are in the top 48 by average.

Other required starters and scoring settings really determine how valuable that 2nd QB is in SF.

Ex: That 2nd QB is more valuable if your scoring settings are

QB/2RB/2WR/TE/FLX/SFLX
than
QB/2RB/3WR/TE/2FLX/SFLX.

And the 2nd QB is less valuable if 1.0 PPR compared to 0.5 or 0 - since those RBs/WRs can put up more points.

I think you first point is reversed. The 2nd QB is more valuable when the starting lineup is more diluted.

In your example, by having 1 additional WR and 1 additional flex, you have less overall options for the SF spot. A starting QB in any given week is the most sparse position while, on average, also has the most upside. The more players you have to start, the more you want a starting QB to fill as many spots as allowed.

The elite options are more valuable the smaller the starting lineup, but larger starting lineups boost the back-end options.

I agree with the second point about starting QBs being less valuable in PPR compared to half or standard.

League size also impacts it. Securing starting QB options is going to be more valuable in a 14 team league compared to a 10 team league.

In more shallow leagues elite QBs are more valuable and in deeper leagues the low end starters are more valuable.

Yeah as expected the draft started with six QBs and Kelce, fortunately the guy right in front of me took CMC so I was able to get Herbert, followed with Bijan then Diggs - draft has third round reversal so had 1.09, 2.04 and 3.04 then it is normal snake from there, it's best ball total points so I'm leaning towards taking players that I want to see

Nice start. That scoring format seems pretty wild with how heavily it favors QB and TE. I've seen some teams posted on Twitter that have taken 4 TEs in the first 6 or 7 rounds.

I drew the 4th spot in my 8 team home league. Start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex with 5 bench. I have the top 4 in 8 man as JJ, Chase, Kelce, Kupp. Anyone disagree?

I kind of just want JJ and Chase to go and then have Kelce as my choice. The few mocks I've run, it feels dirty taking JJ or Chase over Kelce, but it has to be done. I expect at least one RB to go in the top 3 in this league. Some of those mocks have had both CMC and Ekeler go top 3. A couple have had Kelce go top 3, but I don't expect that with this league.

Ours isn't too bad, we're in round 11 now and there's still one team yet to take a TE, seemingly relying on hoping that Jefferson/Chase/ARSB can lock up an enormous advantage at WR and hope to hit on a weekly basis often enough at other positions. Only the one drafter going really heavy TE early, but Pitts 4/Waller 5/Schultz 8 doesn't exactly seem like he's spewing and they all seem reasonable value.

I'm now at Herbert/Richardson/Jimmy G - Bijan/Conner/Javonte - Diglett/Diontae - Goedert/Okonkwo through 10, in two minds whether to take Hollywood next and get a solid third starter, or take Charbs then 5-6 WR's to fill the WR3 hole on a weekly basis, with it being best ball I might do the latter, ZC's an instant RB1 if anything happens to Walker and has flex value anyway

edit - scratch that, Charbonnet literally just taken, so gone Hollywood

I'd certainly consider CMC or Ekeler at 4 but none of those would be bad

That looks like a fun squad with a lot of upside. Hollywood in the 11th is real nice.

I'm just having trouble clicking the top RBs over the top WRs this season. It's especially tough to take CMC/Ekeler in the first when guys like Breece, Mondre, and Etienne are available in the 3rd.

And with it being 8 man with small rosters, high upside RBs will be available on the wire. Guys like Charb, the entire Mia backfield, Foreman/Roschon, Kendre, etc. will likely go undrafted.

My current plan is to take Kelce in the first, one of Davante/Diggs/CD in the 2nd, unless I get lucky and Kupp or Reek fall, and then Garrett/AJB in the third. But I'll also smash JJ/Chase plus receivers in the 2nd/3rd if I need to.

Take good players on good offenses.