How are you guys drafting QB's is best ball this year?

I am just refusing to take any in the 2nd round and feel that the top guys will start to drop to the 4th in a month or so.

Currently I'm not taking a QB before the 8th round and been targeting Watson and Tua a ton especially if I have a Hill, Waddle or Copper. Though my most drafted QB is Rodgers just now who I think is great value in the 10th.

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Now with TE's

I can't stop drafting Andrews in the 3rd round and then taking Pitts if he falls to the late 6th/7th. This could just bomb a bunch of my teams if Pitts is the same this year but feel this is a good strat when avoiding the elite QBs

I've been fading the QBs in the 2nd, although I did take them once or twice in some of my earlier drafts. But too much value on the WRs and RBs. However, I'm willing to take Josh, Pat, and Hurts when they fall to the third. Especially if I've started WR/WR. It is still tough to take the QBs over some of the third round RBs. But I'll smash them over DK, Ridley, Deebo, Amari, etc. every single time.

I'll be surprised if those top 3 have a 4th round ADP in a month or two, but I do expect them all to end up with 3rd round ADPs by the start of the season. Lamar will likely be late 3rd/early 4th. Fields/Burrow will be borderline 4/5. Herbert will be somewhere in the 5th.

However, the shift in top QB scoring the last 4 years has been significant. These elite QBs do give an edge, even when you're able to correlate less elite QBs later in the draft.



With that said, you can find a lot of correlation with the later round QBs, so it does make passing on the elite QBs a little more attractive, depending on where you are in the draft. Trevor, Deshaun, Tua, Dak, Cousins, etc. can all be correlated pretty easily. I've also done some 4/5 correlation with DJ/Fields or Keenan/Herbert and Mike/Herbert. Or taking Burrow when I already have Chase and/or Tee. But nothing is more tilting than trying to execute a back to back round correlation and someone auto drafts you out of it or they simply make a bad pick. It's like being at the Blackjack table when you're trying to play optimally and no one else is haha.

I've done 24 drafts and don't have one share of Andrews. Probably a mistake, but I've also been fortunate to be in the top half of the draft more than the bottom so far, and I'm not taking Andrews in the early to mid third over the RBs. And it's even tough to take him late 3rd, because I've started RB/RB from the 10/11/12 spot a few times, and you simply have to smash WRs at the 3/4 turn when that's the start.

I love Pitts in the 6/7. I've been smashing him there a lot. I think this is also why I've been passing on Andrews too. I basically have no exposure to the top 4 TEs of Kelce, Andrews, Hock and Kittle, because I'm fine taking Pitts, Goedert, Waller, Engram, Njoku, Muth, etc. at later ADPs. Or even executing a 3 TE strategy where all 3 are drafted somewhere around 10th round or later and just hitting the high TD upside guys. Some of late TEs I like are Juwan Johnson, Knox, Everett, and Jelani Woods.

Looking through the top 100 or so on Underdog, these are the guys I'm currently fading at ADP.

CMC - 3.9
Kelce - 6.4
Bijan - 8.9, but falling. He was borderline top 6 to start draft season.
DK - 28.8, people have come to their senses and he is falling. He was around 25 or so.
Ridley - 31.8
Deebo - 34.8
Hopkins - 37.7, and rising lol. I'm not touching him until I see where he's going, and even then, I think he's closer to washed than his last good season in 2020.
Gibbs - 39.4
Hock - 49.9
Evans - 66.9, because I have no faith in Baker relative to Mike's game. I think Godwin is fine, however.
Toney - 70.4
Pickens - 73.3
Swift - 75.7
Cook - 75.9, but I don't think it's bad. He could payoff depending on where he lands, or even if he stays in Minny.
Javonte - 91.4, I just don't believe for this season, but the price is fine.
Sutton - 96, because he sucks.

I've also decided that the 2nd round RBs should probably all be ahead of the 2nd round WRs. But the likely best strategy is to grab one WR and one RB, if you're in the back half of the first.

My current top 24 probably looks something like

JJ
Chase
Reek
Kupp
AJB
Diggs
CD
Davante
Kelce
CMC
Ekeler
Saquon
Chubb
JT
Bijan
Pollard - Torn, because I don't view him has a 75%+ snap 3 down workhorse, but what other option do they have? I'm surprised they haven't found a way to bring back Zeke for cheap.
ARSB
Wilson
Olave
Mondre
Jacobs
Waddle
Tee
Devonta

And then Henry, Breece, Jalen, Josh, and Pat are debatable at the end of that list.

It honestly seems pretty debatable after Diggs. I do think those first 6 receivers should be the clear cut top 6, though. Maybe throw in CD and Devante, but I'm not confident enough to say they are clearly 7/8.

Also, the above is currently mainly looking at it from a best ball standpoint. Some of those end of first/early 2nd backs should push up in the first for redraft season long, especially in shorter starting lineups that's non-SF where you're starting 7-9.

Hayden expounds on that Tweet above about the elite QBs. This article is best ball specific.

https://underdognetwork.com/football...t-ball-updated

Free Mattison was fun while it lasted. Now he's likely going to be too expensive. 5th round probably seems fair, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him push up into the late 3rd or solidly in the 4th.

I hate mocking too early b.c most perceived value you see today will be squeezed out by the time most leagues draft.

That’s what makes best ball so fun. You’re getting practice while also drafting real teams that matter.

And in the case of Underdog tournaments like The Puppies, The Poodles, etc., they close well ahead of the season, so ADPs in a few month are irrelevant in those tournies. You’re trying to guess value now, like getting Mattison in the 8/9 range.

Best Ball Mania is a little different, but still plenty of value early on.

The best ball space is complete degen. They doubled the prize pool for Puppy 2 on Underdog, $5 buy in for $1 mil, and it filled in 2 weeks lol. 225k entrants. That was faster than the Puppy 1, which was half the prize pool.

This is the first year I've gone hard on best ball, and I'm addicted.

So far I've done 11 Puppy 1s, 30 Puppy 2s, 1 Poodle, and 2 Best Ball Mania.

Also, I haven't tried it out, but this looks like a pretty cool tool to supplement your best ball exposure data on Underdog.

https://www.fantasylife.com/tools/best-ball-hub

Are there any best ball providers that are non-US friendly? Could see myself dropping a few $$$ on it but getting money into them might be awkward

How do we feel about the TEs this year? Seems likely to be Kelce and then a flatline like last year. Through week 17, on a ppg basis, TEs 2-12 were separated by 3.7/gm. TEs 2-24 were separated by 6/gm. Conversely, Kelce outscored TE2 by 5.9/gm.

Here are the top 20 by ADP on Underdog.

Kelce 6.4
Andrews 30.1
Hock 50.8
Kittle 60.0
Pitts 68.2
Goedert 72.8
Waller 81.9
Engram 95.2
Njoku 102.7
Muth 105.8
Kincaid 126
Chig 126
Schultz 136.5
Dulcich 139.1
Kmet 144.6
Higbee 148.8
Irv 151.1
Everett 157.6
Juwan 164.7
LaPorta 166.5

I've been taking a lot of Pitts and Goedert, as I feel like they are the value of the top 6. Especially for best ball, I don't think there is much difference between them and Andrews. I have those 2 decently far ahead of the next group of guys, as they all have a lot of uncertainty.

I won't fault anyone for going Kelce, but it puts you behind on receiver to take him in the first. Kelce's price will work better in season long redraft, imo.

I also like Schultz, Higbee, Everett, and Juwan at price.

For redraft,

I don't play in TE premium, so I never take Kelce in round 1 because I only play in 3 starting WR leagues, although he has paid off every year except 2021. And he probably will again in 2023. And I usually just wait till the end because middle round TE are usually a bad investment, but I agree with you, Tarheels, on Goedert and Pitts. I'm a firm believer Pitts is going to break out in a huge way sooner than later. I like him this year with what should be much better QB play. Mariotta was that bad of a passer. I also like Njoku. I'm high on Cleveland all around in 2023. On the underdog podcast yesterday, the guest listed his 5 top players he can't stop drafting and he mentioned Luke Musgrave, which has me interested.

I think you're a little low on Wilson and Waddle. If I'm at the 1/2 turn, I wouldn't be upset if they were my two picks. This is for 1PPR redraft 3WR. But I try to look ahead for breakouts, probably more than I should lol.

Generally agree with you that the real value for RB is at the 2/3 turn area. Also re: Pollard, I don't see any reason to think he won't have another huge year. But we wouldn't even want him getting 75% anyway. And Zeke is clearly washed. I wonder if Cook may end up with Dallas if it doesn't work out with Miami. Our Fournette.

I feel like Kelce will be underdrafted as always, anyone else in the next 4-5 rounds will screw their owners over, then it's a case of waiting on your sleeper TE of choice

Definitely on Pitts, although, Ridder could still be as bad as Mariotta haha. It can't get much worse, though. It's like people forget how good Pitts was as a rookie, just because he was a little inconsistent and didn't score TDs. But he still went over 1k yards. They're all just sour since Pitts burned them at 2nd/3rd round prices last year. But 6th/7th round prices right now are hard to pass on.

Kelce is Kelce, but I still find it difficult to pull the trigger on him mid-1st, especially in a 12 man league with 3 starting WRs. I'll probably target him in my 10 man and 8 man leagues. It's not like KC did much to improve their WR group, so he should still easily be the #1 target.

As far as Njoku, I like his upside and think the Browns should throw more, but I just haven't ended up with much of him. Amari and Chubb will get theirs, and then the rest will be broken out between Njoku, E Moore, DPJ, and Tillman.

As far as Musgrave, he's a decent late round dart throw. But that GB passing game is very murky, so decent idea to draft the guys with upside that we haven't seen in the NFL yet. However, I've mostly been targeting Jones and Dillon at their prices for my GB offense shares.

Yeah, I find it very difficult to rank the top 25-30 players this year. I kind of like them all for one reason or another, and I don't really have anyone I'm particularly fading. Looking at my rankings, Waddle should probably move up ahead of Olave, but I think that's a good spot for him and Wilson. In the best ball drafts, I've definitely taken them over quite a few of those backs, but from a season long redraft perspective, I'll find it difficult to pass on the backs in the 2nd for those guys, especially if I've taken WR in the first. My preferred build will probably be 2 WRs and 1 back or Kelce, 1 WR and 1 back through 3.

But I definitely want to make sure I come out of every draft with at least one of the backs on that list.

And yeah, I am liking Pollard more and more. I've been drafting him some at price in best ball.

I've also been drafting a lot of the 3rd round quarterbacks in best ball, but I will probably shift that for season long redraft, depending on prices.

Tarheels,

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/ar...nity-for-rbs#/

Good info. Thanks for sharing. There is definitely a balance between weighing raw touches against what kind of touches due to the reception to rushing touch fantasy scoring ratio.

UnderDog just dropped a new tournament where season long best ball meets weekly DFS. It's called weekly winners. You draft your team now against 11 other people. The total tournament field is 261,000 entrants. The buy in is $15. Each week, the entire field competes against each other for weekly ranks. The min cash each week is $10. The total players that cash each week is 7,315, so 2.8% of the field. It goes for weeks 1-17. The top team each week wins $20,000. The payouts are relatively flat.

But you also have a raw chance of roughly 40% to cash at least one of the weeks and secure 2/3rds of the buy in. 97.2%^17 = 61.7% to never cash. 100%-61.7% = 38.3%. I think that's the right calculation haha. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

There is a lot of strategy to consider such as stacking bye weeks, stacking divisional games, number of QBs/TEs to draft, weighing towards beginning of season or later in the season, etc. The roster is the same UD standard 18 player start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, Flex.

Just curious - what’s the rake on underdog these days?

Last I checked:

Yahoo Pro League rake = 10%

MFL10s (no longer exists, got bought by FanDuel) was 8.3% (1 in 12)

Underdog non-tourneys (e.g. only against 11 others) 2 years ago were “1.5 in 12”, or ~12.4%.

I used to do 30-40 MFL10s back in the day, but I realize I’m starting to sound like a grumpy 1/2 NL player who complains about the extra jackpot drops. 12% just seems too high to me, but occasionally the urge to gamble will not care about rake. And of course it’s quite harder to calculate for underdog tourneys - I mean some of that extra rake does get paid back to you in equity / Sklansky dollars.

It varies by game.

$4 for $250k with 70.5k entrants is 11.3%. $25k to first.

The weekly winners I posted about above is 10.6%.

Best Ball Mania is 11.4%. That one is $25 with $15 mil with 677k entrants. $3 mil to first.

The $101 for $300k with 3,264 entrants is 9%. $30k to first.

A SNG non-tourney style is 10%.

So overall, a little lower than 2 years ago.

I’ve mainly been doing $4-$5 tournaments to practice + lotto ticket.

Do you guys play myffpc? I'd like to, but the price is high.

Off topic, but for my 2 playert keeper superflex league, I'm gonna go with Howell in the 17th and Cal Ridley in the 16th. Only other choice would be Dotson in the 11th or Rachaad White in the 10th. I screwed up the QB situation a couple of years ago, and everyone is hoarding most of the good ones. So all my hopes and dreams depend on Sam Howell! I'd have to get the first or second pick to obtain Mahomes or Jackson.

Who are your other QB keeper choices?

It's just that I can't see Howell being any more than a bye week desperation play.

It’s definitely gross, but Howell has been regularly going in the 6/7 in the SF drafts I’ve been doing. Granted, it’s best ball.

I’d certainly keep Howell and Ridley over Dotson and Rachaad.

Keeper rules force Mahomes and Jackson back in the pool?

Hopefully Henry will be in a spot to land one of the top 3 rookie QBs if he’s stuck with only Howell.

I think Howell will win the job to start, but Rivera is coaching for his job this year + Bieniemy wants to prove he belongs without Andy, so I’d imagine it won’t take much for Brisett to play.

Our league switched to Superflex not long ago, but Mahomes and Jackson were kept prior to then and their managers' 3 year limit is up in 2023 (1st round picks can't be kept). That's why they're back in the pool. In this league, you can trade for future picks. My team wasn't a contender so traded away some players (Goff among others) for future picks. Only other QB I have is Russ for a 3rd and that's a no no. Not an ideal situation for me. I could possibly relinquish a first or second for 2023 and acquire an elite QB and have his rights for a season or two. This year, I have two extra 5th and one extra 6th.

As for Howell, from what I've read, he has a substantial lead for starting QB. I think he'll be permitted to play through his mistakes. They need to see what they have in him. Brissett will not save Washington's season if they start off badly and the decision will probably come from above. Having a terrible season is bad for Ron, not the WFT franchise long-term.

Where would you guys take Richardson?

edit* Another option would be to see if I start off lucky with Richardson/Howell or Cousins/Howell, say 3-1, I could trade future picks to a non-contender who is selling off assets and acquire a QB.

Damn, that's tough to switch to SF without doing a full re-draft haha. I don't play any keeper leagues, and I know there is a lot of nuance, but my thoughts are Howell and Ridley are still the value. Even if Howell starts 4 games and gets replaced, 17th round cost is certainly worth the risk. But like you said, he could get the whole season, depending on how things go.

However, Russ in the third really isn't that bad. Especially when you consider it's sort like a fifth round pick in that format, even though some keepers are being kept behind redraft ADP. Russ is currently has a 34 ADP as QB18 on Underdog SF. I am cautiously bullish on the Denver offense, and specifically Russ, heading into this season. The upgrade from Hackett to Payton cannot be understated, even if you think Russ is on the decline.

As far as Richardson, without knowing the full available player pool, I'd say probably should be somewhere in the early 2nd given that makes him keeper eligible versus a first round pick. The same with Bijan.

In SF, AR has a 19.7 ADP on Underdog as QB12. Bijan is 21.1 as RB3.

Underdog just opened the $3 Pomeranian. $100k, 33,360 entries, no rake, $20k to first.