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2023 Fantasy Football Thread 2023 Fantasy Football Thread

05-10-2023 , 12:37 PM
I know it's only May 10th, but since we are past the real life draft, each team's situation is starting to shape into solid form for this upcoming season.

I wanted to go ahead and kick this off as plenty of us are starting best ball and dynasty rookie drafts. I'm about to start firing into Underdog's Puppy contest. For now, I'll probably mostly be posting from a best ball and redraft perspective, at least until after I get through some of my rookie drafts since I am in leagues with other followers of the thread.

There are still questions like where will guys like Zeke and Fournette land? Will it even matter?

Spoiler:
Unlikely.


Can Lamar really throw for 6,000 yards?

Spoiler:
He'll be lucky to hit 4,000.


Will everyone get burned by drafting all of the WRs early and letting quality RBs fall to the late 2nd and 3rd round?

Spoiler:
Probably.


Where should we be taking the top 5-7 QBs in 1QB leagues?

Spoiler:
Earlier than ever.


How early should Kelce go?

Spoiler:
Probably top 5, but that might be too rich for me.


How much will top 100 pass catcher Garrett Wilson help Fraudgers?

Spoiler:
Garrett is currently WR9 on Underdog, with an early 2nd ADP.


Let the debates begin!
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05-11-2023 , 05:20 AM
Was going to make a thread soon, oh well, my interest is mainly seeing how high Bijan and Gibbs go in redraft
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05-11-2023 , 11:15 AM
Any interest in starting up a dynasty league in the $250-500 range?
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05-11-2023 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
Was going to make a thread soon, oh well, my interest is mainly seeing how high Bijan and Gibbs go in redraft
All of the data below is from Underdog.

Bijan is currently RB2 with an ADP of 7.1. It's steep, but I can live with it when you look at the history of top 10 rookie RBs, especially those who go to an offense that wants to establish the run. I'm okay drafting a player like Bijan at his ceiling. Hell, Allgeier hit 1,000 yards on the ground last year in that offense, and Allgeier's best games were with Ridder starting.

Gibbs is RB13 with an ADP of 37.2. I'll probably be out at that price. He's going to need to be super efficient to reach RB1 territory. I think we all view Bijan's skillset versus Gibbs's skillset differently. Without being the goal line back, it's going to be tough. I'd rather have Monty at his price of RB27 with an ADP of 86.7. I think I'm going to be out on most of the RBs in Gibbs's range. There are guys like Etienne, Walker, A. Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, etc. I'd rather take guys like Akers, Conner, Charbonnet, BRob, Damien, etc. 4-7 rounds later.

The current value for finding RB1s is in the 2nd and 3rd with JT early second, Barkley, Chubb, Pollard, Henry, Jacobs, Breece, and Mondre.

Seattle's ADP is interesting. Walker is RB15 with an ADP of 46. Charb is RB31 with an ADP of 100.3. DK is WR15 with an ADP of 29.5. JSN is WR29 with an ADP of 57.1. Lockett is WR33 with an ADP of 68. Give me the later guys all day long.

Geno is being slept on too, especially with the offensive additions. QB16 with an ADP of 110. He finished as QB5 last season, and even by average, he was QB10 at 18.5 per game. But really, that's QB8 by average if you remove Davis Webb's game of 20.8 and Sam Howell's game of 19.3. I don't get it.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 05-11-2023 at 12:19 PM.
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05-11-2023 , 04:00 PM
Looking for a dynasty in the $25-50 range if anyone has an opening or starts one. No auction, or IDP preferably.
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05-11-2023 , 05:42 PM
Where is the best place for Best Ball leagues? I want to try a few this season but not sure which site to use for those.
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05-11-2023 , 06:44 PM
I play on Underdog. They have a pretty solid interface.

https://underdogfantasy.com/
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05-11-2023 , 07:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
I play on Underdog. They have a pretty solid interface.

https://underdogfantasy.com/
I've heard of it, but never used them. I'll check it out. Thanks!
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05-12-2023 , 05:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cokeboy99
Looking for a dynasty in the $25-50 range if anyone has an opening or starts one. No auction, or IDP preferably.
I similarly would be open to adding another dynasty team in this range, also not interested in IDP
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05-12-2023 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
All of the data below is from Underdog.

Bijan is currently RB2 with an ADP of 7.1. It's steep, but I can live with it when you look at the history of top 10 rookie RBs, especially those who go to an offense that wants to establish the run. I'm okay drafting a player like Bijan at his ceiling. Hell, Allgeier hit 1,000 yards on the ground last year in that offense, and Allgeier's best games were with Ridder starting.

Gibbs is RB13 with an ADP of 37.2. I'll probably be out at that price. He's going to need to be super efficient to reach RB1 territory. I think we all view Bijan's skillset versus Gibbs's skillset differently. Without being the goal line back, it's going to be tough. I'd rather have Monty at his price of RB27 with an ADP of 86.7. I think I'm going to be out on most of the RBs in Gibbs's range. There are guys like Etienne, Walker, A. Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, etc. I'd rather take guys like Akers, Conner, Charbonnet, BRob, Damien, etc. 4-7 rounds later.
I'm pretty high on Gibbs considering talent+team+draft capital. I see him making up for lack of GL touches with the receptions and big-play ability. Think he's gonna have more rushing yards than it appears right now.
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05-12-2023 , 03:07 PM
It's not that I'm not high on him as a player, I just think the pathway to being an RB1 is tough. Gibbs is going to be super valuable from a real life standpoint. I also expect Monty to still be heavily involved, especially in the high leverage fantasy spots with regard to TD scoring.

I think Gibbs's absolute rookie ceiling is 200 carries and 75 receptions. The only two backs to hit 75 receptions last year were Ekeler and CMC. Fournette was at 73. Let's say he averages 5 yards per carry and 8 yards per reception, which is basically CMC level. That'll give him 1,000 yards on the ground and 600 through the air. Over 17 games, that'd be 235 PPR points before any TDs. That'd be roughly 14 points per game. Roughly RB15 last year, by average, before any TDs. So in that situation, he wouldn't really need many TDs to return ADP value.

However, I think his floor is something like 150 carries and 50 receptions. Using 5 ypc and 8 ypr, that'd give him 165 PPR points over 17 games, which is like RB35 before any TDs. He'd need close to 15 TDs to reach RB12 to be in RB1 territory.

My median projection is something like 175 carries, 60 receptions, 4.5 ypc, 8 ypr, and 8 TDs. 13.8 PPR/gm, good for mid-RB2 range.

RB13 is probably a fair price, but I think it's more likely than that he finishes below RB13 than above it. I'd rather take Najee, Amari, Mike Williams, Christian Watson, Jeudy, etc. in that range. Another problem, and this is just what I'm seeing as my likely personal strategy this season, is I'll be running a lot of "hero" RB with those guys I mentioned in the 2nd/early 3rd round. So I likely won't want to take another RB at Gibbs's draft range, although, Najee would be tempting.

My current top 12 is probably something like:

JJ
Chase
Reek
Kupp
AJB
Kelce
Diggs
CD
CMC
Bijan
Davante
Saquon

Early first is going to smash, especially at the 2/3 turn getting guys like Henry, Jacobs, Breece, Chubb, Pollard, etc.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 05-12-2023 at 03:14 PM.
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05-13-2023 , 01:42 AM
The Underdog Puppy best ball tournament is already 70% filled. It's a $5 $500k with 111,780 max entries. It went live on 5/5/23. That's wild.
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05-13-2023 , 02:33 AM
I have JG's ceiling for receptions at about 90, although I think somewhere in the 70-80 range is more realistic. I'd bet over 60 for sure if he holds up for most of the season. St. Brown will get his, but other than that there's not a lot of quality pass catchers. Reynolds? Jameson Williams will be out for six games due to gambling. Goff liking to check down and the good OL has me very bullish on Gibbs in 2023. They clearly have big plans for him. I'd be pretty happy to have him at the 3/4 turn. We'll have to revisit this once we see how it all plays out.
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05-13-2023 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
RB13 is probably a fair price, but I think it's more likely than that he finishes below RB13 than above it. I'd rather take Najee, Amari, Mike Williams, Christian Watson, Jeudy, etc. in that range. Another problem, and this is just what I'm seeing as my likely personal strategy this season, is I'll be running a lot of "hero" RB with those guys I mentioned in the 2nd/early 3rd round. So I likely won't want to take another RB at Gibbs's draft range, although, Najee would be tempting.

My current top 12 is probably something like:

JJ
Chase
Reek
Kupp
AJB
Kelce
Diggs
CD
CMC
Bijan
Davante
Saquon

Early first is going to smash, especially at the 2/3 turn getting guys like Henry, Jacobs, Breece, Chubb, Pollard, etc.
Are we sure Najee will get the volume he got in 2021? Warren got plenty of time in 2022. And Harris hasn't been efficient with his touches.

Kupp will be interesting. The rams have nothing outside him at WR. He should be seeing a lot of double teams. Plus I think he's going to get traded (and Donald) if the Rams aren't a contender. Their over/under for wins is only 7.5. I could see Buffalo attempt to acquire him. Your top 12 is good except CMC I think. Too low. If i'm at the 1/2 turn, I'm taking Wilson every time.

Last edited by Henry_Sugar; 05-13-2023 at 01:23 PM.
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05-14-2023 , 04:36 PM
Gibbs getting ten carries and five receptions a game is still going to be fairly valuable
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05-15-2023 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar
I have JG's ceiling for receptions at about 90, although I think somewhere in the 70-80 range is more realistic. I'd bet over 60 for sure if he holds up for most of the season. St. Brown will get his, but other than that there's not a lot of quality pass catchers. Reynolds? Jameson Williams will be out for six games due to gambling. Goff liking to check down and the good OL has me very bullish on Gibbs in 2023. They clearly have big plans for him. I'd be pretty happy to have him at the 3/4 turn. We'll have to revisit this once we see how it all plays out.
90 would be crazy. Ekeler, CMC, Saquon, and Forte are the only ones to be able to pull that off over the last 10 years. Given that, I still think 70-80 as ceiling range isn't that realistic, but I respect the belief in his talent + the way he fits in Detroit. It's not that I don't like him. I plan to take him at 1.03, assuming Bijan and AR are off the board, in a 10 man dynasty league start 10. I just don't know if he will get enough touches from the beginning of the season to payoff in redraft. I think Gibbs is a great player, and will make a major impact over his career. I just find it tough to bet on him at current ADP, which is more likely to rise than fall leading up to the season .

Saquon hit 91 his rookie year. He hasn't come close since.

CMC had 80 his rookie year. CMC is also arguably the best back I've ever watched play. Gibbs would basically have to be CMC as a rookie to payoff of ADP. CMC also had a vet in front of him in Jonathan Stewart.

No one else is has really come close to the receiving totals of those two as a rookie. Guys like Zeke, Gurley, Fournette, etc. produced pretty well on the ground as rookies, but that's not Gibbs's game. I think Monty will be a bigger obstacle than we'd like.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 05-15-2023 at 01:37 AM.
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05-15-2023 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar
Are we sure Najee will get the volume he got in 2021? Warren got plenty of time in 2022. And Harris hasn't been efficient with his touches.

Kupp will be interesting. The rams have nothing outside him at WR. He should be seeing a lot of double teams. Plus I think he's going to get traded (and Donald) if the Rams aren't a contender. Their over/under for wins is only 7.5. I could see Buffalo attempt to acquire him. Your top 12 is good except CMC I think. Too low. If i'm at the 1/2 turn, I'm taking Wilson every time.
I'll take Najee likely getting 20 touches per game at RB14. I don't think Warren takes away from that. Najee also had a pretty serious foot injury to start last season that he played through.

Pre-bye week. 13.5 rushes/gm, 45 yards rushing/gm, 1 rushing TD, 3.5 targets/gm, 3 receptions/gm, 14 yards/gm, 2 receiving TDs. 11.15 fantasy points/gm.

Post-bye week. 18.2 rushes/gm, 75 yards rushing/gm, 6 rushing TDs, 2.8 targets/gm, 1.9 receptions/gm, 13 yards/gm, 1 receiving TD. 15.37 fantasy points/gm.

Pickett is in year 2, the offensive line has improved, overall, I think the Steelers offense will be better, .

I think Kupp should be #2 behind JJ, but I gave Chase and Reek enough respect, that the risk of the Rams sucking/Stafford being even worse is enough for me to put him #4. However, I've seen enough from Kupp the last two seasons, that I couldn't care less what the Rams have out there, as long as Stafford is throwing him the ball.

In a vacuum, CMC should probably be #5 after Kupp, but I put him behind those next 4 players due to the current 2/3 RB value, and really, entire current ADP RB value. That could change. I have Wilson 13, JT 14, Ekeler 15, ARSB 16, and then it could go a few ways.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 05-15-2023 at 01:44 AM.
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05-15-2023 , 07:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
I just don't know if he will get enough touches from the beginning of the season to payoff in redraft.
Would think they do a bunch of designed WR routes for Gibbs while Jamo is suspended?
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05-15-2023 , 09:41 AM
Maybe so from a lack of other weapons, but there isn’t much crossover for the roles between those two.

Gibbs has a chance to be different, but teams rarely actually line up their backs as receivers more than a few plays a game.

Plus, the one spot Gibbs would likely lineup is their strongest receiver on the team.
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05-15-2023 , 04:12 PM
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05-16-2023 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cokeboy99
Looking for a dynasty in the $25-50 range if anyone has an opening or starts one. No auction, or IDP preferably.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
I similarly would be open to adding another dynasty team in this range, also not interested in IDP
+1

Don't hate on the IDP though it's way more fun imo.

Already drafted a dynasty IDP team this year and half way through another draft. Started the 2nd one with 1st pick so got Mahomes, Hill, Olave then Adams. So guy then offers me my 5th, 7th and 12th for his Chase that he picked 7th overall and I snap accepted. My team may not win the league but at least it won't be beaten at WR this year
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05-16-2023 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
90 would be crazy. Ekeler, CMC, Saquon, and Forte are the only ones to be able to pull that off over the last 10 years. Given that, I still think 70-80 as ceiling range isn't that realistic, but I respect the belief in his talent + the way he fits in Detroit. It's not that I don't like him. I plan to take him at 1.03, assuming Bijan and AR are off the board, in a 10 man dynasty league start 10. I just don't know if he will get enough touches from the beginning of the season to payoff in redraft. I think Gibbs is a great player, and will make a major impact over his career. I just find it tough to bet on him at current ADP, which is more likely to rise than fall leading up to the season .
I'm with you on Gibbs. Will be amazing for dynasty but will probably be avoiding him in redraft, this year at least, as i feel he's more likely to finish in the RB15-20 range than be a top 10 back.
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05-16-2023 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.E.C
Started the 2nd one with 1st pick so got Mahomes, Hill, Olave then Adams. So guy then offers me my 5th, 7th and 12th for his Chase that he picked 7th overall and I snap accepted. My team may not win the league but at least it won't be beaten at WR this year
Giving up net picks in a startup can be tough, but I think you committed robbery there

That’s basically two decent starters in one high-end WR/RB2, one low-end WR/RB2, and a handcuff/depth piece. 5/7 could also be mid to end TE1 or low-end QB2.
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05-17-2023 , 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
Giving up net picks in a startup can be tough, but I think you committed robbery there

Thatís basically two decent starters in one high-end WR/RB2, one low-end WR/RB2, and a handcuff/depth piece. 5/7 could also be mid to end TE1 or low-end QB2.
With my picks he choose Pittman, Ridley and Sneed so definitely a robbery 🤗😅

I was apprehensive about making the trade at 1st with it being IDP cause 5th-7th round is where the IDP studs go(Parsons, Roquan, etc) but just had to change my plan a bit.

Ended up rounding the team off with Mike Williams, Pierce, Akers, Picket and Cusions so really happy with it. Now to just load up on IDP players with potential and get a few handcuff RBs
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05-17-2023 , 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.E.C
+1

Don't hate on the IDP though it's way more fun imo
It's hard enough keeping track of offensive players lol
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