Yeah, would think Diontae and Davis could reasonably get him Lamb?

Your value is probably correct (as usual) but I think Diontae's value is still depressed. Probably more of a buy than a sell.

So are we drafting CEH with confidence anywhere?

Seems like Pacheco is the late-round (and rising) flyer everyone wants, and no one really cares about anything else in this backfield.

If I’m taking anyone in that backfield, it’s McKinnon.

My guess is Pacheco will be more special teams than anything and also be their 3rd string RB on game day if necessary. He might get a few touches, but I don’t see him taking over a big part of that backfield unless he’s the last option. And even then, they’d probably try to find a FA or make a trade to bring someone in. Don’t forget, he’s a 7th round rookie. And his prospect profile was pretty trash.

I think CEH gets mostly first and second down rushing work and McKinnon gets 3rd plus other passing down work.

Certainly not buying CEH at his price.

McKinnon is like ADP 250 compared to CEH around 65. He’s right ahead of Dillon, who I’d much rather have. I’d also rather have pretty much all of the receivers in that range over CEH. And there are plenty of backs being drafted behind CEH that I’d rather have.

McKinnon had some nice production in the playoffs last year and played over CEH.

RoJo seems toast and likely to be cut.

That's true.

I was only intrigued b/c I heard that his Rutgers team was absolute garbage, and he had like no good chances to do anything - but, he has looked way better now with some reasonable players in front of him.

At an ADP of 215, I guess he's worth a flyer, but I think there is a very slim chance he ever gets meaningful snaps from a fantasy prospective this season. I think the hype is more about what the Chiefs don't have, which is a legit starting running back lol. Other flyers I'd rather have around that ADP are Foreman, McKenzie, Hamler, Chris Evans, Michel, Haskins, etc.

CEH has been a disappointment. RoJo has been a disappointment. McKinnon has been alright, but spent 2 seasons injured and is mostly a JAG, although he's pretty good at catching the ball. He caught 51 balls on 68 targets in 2017. I think that McKinnon is definitely the top pass catching option out of the backfield right now.

I just think the best way to get a read on the backfield is to look at what happened at the end of last year. Which was McKinnon getting the bulk of the work in the most important games of the season, especially since they brought him back, even after signing RoJo. And then all they drafted as Pacheco in the 7th round. They re-signed McKinnon after the draft.

In those 3 games, he averaged 11 rushes, 50 yards rushing, 5.67 targets, 4.67 catches, and 55 yards receiving. He only had 1 TD, but even without the TD, that would be a fantasy game average of 15 FPTS/gm.

Add in the loss of Reek and the fact that all of the other pass catches (minus Kelce) on the roster are pretty average, plus an unknown second round rookie, and I can see a path where McKinnon is startable even if CEH or Pacheco are playing.

Does anyone else have an unreasonable bias towards fading Deebo at his current price? I just feel like he ran so pure last year and could see a world where he only has like 70 catches for 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. I can see the argument for his upside, but I just think the outcome of him getting there is really low.

And while he crushed the running game and the SF backfield is still kind of a mess, especially with Mitchell nursing a hammy, I think Lance will now get a lot of the rushing work+ that Deebo was getting. Essentially, it'll just shift to designed or option runs for Lance instead of pulling Deebo back there.

I'm fading everyone outside of Lance on the 9ers

I have drafted him zero times this year and will be surprised if that changes

Obviously D Pearce getting a lot of hype...he and Ken Walker were my two late rb choices last few weeks...moving up now though, how high are we willing to take him? Can we take rd 6-7?

I'm more on the Brian Robinson hype train (although got both him and Pierce in dynasty rookie draft)

I have been too. Although, I'm much more inclined to draft Aiyuk or TDP at their prices than Deebo or Mitchell.

In my 8 man league if I fade Kelce/Andrews and can land Kittle in the 6th/7th round, I'll probably pull the trigger.

6/7 is too high, imo. I still expect Hou to be a bottom half of the league offense. Sleeper has Pierce's current ADP at 135, so I don't think there is a reason to target him in the 6/7 round. I guess it depends on how sharp you think your league is, but even if they're super sharp, I probably don't target until at the earliest, maybe round 9. I'd certainly rather have Pierce over a lot of guys currently going ahead of him like Miles Sanders, JRob, Carter, Mattison, Spiller, Cordarelle (he's going to burn people taking him at current ADP of 83), D. Harris, etc. But I'll wait and just take the ADP value if I can.

His price is certainly worth the upside at an ADP of 190. I'd much rather buy Robinson at his price than Gibson at his price.

League is sharp, and i guess he is the last potential early season 3down back left that late in draft so i expect his ADP to keep climbing

He was going in the 11/12 in best balls until this week where he has shot up to the 8/9th and I'm not that excited about taking him there

He's actually my most owned player so fingers crossed he comes good

I sold Pacheco for 2x 3rds in dynasty yesterday but I've actually seen some people get more for him.

Seems like the hype train for him has a lot of people thinking he's the next Kareem Hunt and not understanding the difference between a 3rd round pick and a 6th. As Tarheels said i expect him to mainly just be on special teams.

As for CEH i'm kind of back on him, mainly just cause I see him outperforming his ADP but don't really see much upside which isn't great

Would like some opinions on a league I'm in. 14-team, 0.5ppr, QB/2RB/3WR/FLEX/K/D. League used to be super fishy, but now is only somewhat fishy. Every single year, people go crazy for RBs and reach multiple rounds to get them. I somewhat understand why people do this since it's a 14-team.

I usually find myself with 1 RB after 5 rounds as I normally take the BPA. So round 6-7 comes around and I'm either taking a bench WR, or reaching 2-3 rounds early for the best possible RB. Is this just how it is since people reach so much for RBs?

I have the 6th pick, which I'm planning to take JJ with (CMC/JT/Ekeler/Henry/Kupp). Almost certainly looks like I'm getting a WR with the 23rd pick as I feel like the best RB available by then will be Akers/Ettiene. Should I look to possibly take Mixon/Cook/Harris over JJ in round 1 to leave me with more flexibility going forward?

Always feel gross right after the draft after going BPA the first 4-5 rounds.

I just got done watching the Sleeper Bowl draft replay, which has a lot of "expert analysts" plus AJ Dillon and Tyler Allgeier. Pierce went 7.12. It's a 14 team league, so I guess that'd translate to 8.12 in a 12 man. Hmm. I'm with JEC, the higher he goes, the less likely I want him haha.

It's just tough to get excited about anything in the Texans offense. Even Cooks isn't exciting, even if he's consistently productive.

But hey, if Pierce turns into a true 3 down workhorse and is catching balls + getting TDs, he will be a value.

I'm still taking JJ and it's not close for me as I really think he could smash some records this year.

Put it this way do you feel better with JJ and Akers/Ettiene or Mixon/Cook/Harris and Moore/Pittman/Williams/Waddle?

In this league and with your draft spot I think it's better to go with the zero RB strat as It sounds like you'll have a ton of WR value falling to you

I'm getting to the point where I am close to moving JJ ahead of Kupp, partly because I'm actually a little worried about Stafford's elbow. And partly because I think Kupp will have more competition for touches in the offense, even if he will still be the elite #1 option.

Like you said, JJ could be historic. And, Kupp's OC last year is now the HC for JJ haha.

I like JJ as the #1 WR. Vikings will score a ton, he's the first option with pretty minimal competition (Thielen is due for some TD regression and is 31, just don't see him putting up much of an obstacle to JJ targets), and Cousins just throws it tons.

Some of those things are true-ish for Kupp/Stafford but I think Minnesota is just an ideal situation for a clear cut pass catcher.

I've really done no prep so far, should start running some mocks since work is dead.

I truly hardly mock anymore, but did one just now just to get a feel for where the runs happen. Some cool decisions to debate that I think will help the board.

a ppr from the #7/12 (I mock there because I find it's the hardest spot), curious how big some of these leaks are:


#7 Najee (over Dalvin and Chase)
2nd: Javonte (over Kamara and Saquon, which we've debated)
3rd: Mark Andrews (clear positional advantage, over Pittman, Aj Brown, Mike Evans)
4th: Eli Mitchell (over Metcalf, Moore, Waddle at WR since I own none yet)
5th: Kyler Murray (my fave pick and I think getting him the 5th is a great strategy this year
6th. Amon-Ra (Things go off the rails a bit here, over Allen Robinson, Renfrow, Amari. I like the gamble)
7th: Gabriel Davis (over a bunch of RBs and I like the pick here for upside)
8th: Cordarelle (But I think I regret not taking Aiyuk here in this spot)
9th: D Pierce (which is wonderful value to me)
10th Drake London (I don't really know what to think, it could have been claypool, toney)
11th Landry (another guy I love getting here as he's gonna catch a ton Id think)
12th Pacheco (who will never last this long
We can ignore the depth

So I must say, seems to me like there's great WR value between the 6th and 11th if you want it. Looks like the 7th is a good spot to go grab an RB too. Guys like Julio going damn late, I could have had him many times for depth.

to me mitchell over dj moore hurt your draft, overall fine though...who are the rbs you like in 7th?

Personally theres no way im taking Najee over Chase but don't think it's terrible

Don't buy the Javonte over Kamara or Barkely. I just feel those to have way more upside than Javonte but I know others disagree but if Gordon does do down we've see he can be a beast.

Hate the Mitchell pick. He's been going 6-8 round in best balls and theres always the risk in SF that he's not the lead back come the end of the season + I think you need to take a WR here.

If you plan on taking Murray in the 4th i'd be looking to target Brown in the 4th

Rest looks good and getting Andrews in the 3rd is amazing. Though I think if you look back on your team would you not agree having in taking Chase over Najee? You look quite weak and WR and are just hoping for some upside from London and Davis which may not happen