I’ve started doing $5 best ball drafts on underdog. I got the $100 match on my initial deposit, so I’m going to do 40 $5 12-team drafts and see if I can’t come out ahead. If I was an average drafter, my EV would be $80 profit, since they take 10%.

It makes me wonder what kind of an edge a good drafter can get in one of these drafts. It seems like it would probably be less than 10%, since most people are sticking pretty close to reasonable ADP choices.

Does anyone think it is likely for a good drafter to be able to overcome the 10% rake on these drafts with a deposit bonus? My gut leans no, but I’m far from an expert at fantasy football.

10tm .5ppr auction league - $200 budget qb/2rb/2wr/te/2flex

we’re allowed 2 keepers 1 over $30 and 1 under $30. I have JChase for $10 which is a no brainer, but my only real over $30 option is AJ Brown at $32

Feels like $32 is right around fair for AJB but not sure if it’s worth it with the Philly offense risk

that is more of a statement than a question. i guess that's kind of fine for AJB given the keeper setup means that he would probably be costing more than what you would keep him for. as such i think it's fine

What are the other options? Do you have to keep 2? I’m guessing you can choose 0, 1, or 2 based on your wording.

$32 probably isn’t a big value, but I also think it’s a fair price, and maybe slightly under. AJB still has WR1 upside.

It’s tough to say without knowing the league.

I will say I think he will set a career high for targets this year. The question is, will the Y/R and TDs be there? I’m mostly worried about TDs. But I’m still pretty high.

I’m also fading Devonta and Goedert.

Also you have to assume that even in this format there should be some scarcity so AJB could end up going for more than non keeper leagues so 32 could still be a decent discount.

Don’t have to keep anyone, just have the option to

My only other over $30 options are
Cmc - $90 (due to multi-year keeper price escalation rules)
Chubb - $50 I think (I traded for him so not 100% sure)

yeah, of those options i think it's ajb >> chubb >>>>>>>>>> cmc

Yeah, I love CMC, but not for 45% of budget in a price escalating keeper league haha.

Keeper is a lot easier to help with in redraft than auction because it’s all adp relative.

It’s really tough to know if $32 for AJB is good or not without knowing the league.

$10 for Chase is amazing. I might just keep him and throw everyone else back and leverage the league with 90% of budget remaining.

Thing is most of the league probably has someone like a Jefferson, Najee (although probably not that far under market value), Burrow, Taylor etc way under value. Even can go in season free agent pickups like ARSB etc. If you take that into account and that many will have more money than expected to splash around, maybe you're more inclined to drop the cash on AJB. He probably goes for more in the auction. Of course, if the OP thinks Hurts sucks or that the Philly offence will be spread too thin, then chucking him back is understandable

For sure. It’s all relative. OP will just need to look at the other teams’ keeper situation and decide if AJB is worth it compared to other values.

looking for 12-16 team auction league in range of 1-3k per team. pm if have one

Doubt I am keeping AJB at $32.

He seems like a fine complementary player but not one I want to build my team around. Numbers were in a bit of decline last year, has had some hamstring issues that limited his snaps and is going to a new offense and team with a QB that is not afraid to take off with the ball.

Not putting him on a 'do not draft' list by any means but not sure I see the point of paying market price for him either. Probably ends the season closer to his 2021 numbers than his 2020 season

Let's get a round of THIS OR THAT going. I give you some close calls in PPR. You tell me who you like by bolding the name you prefer. Justifying your answer never hurts.


Henry or CMC

Mixon or Swift

Chubb or A Jones

Saquon or Javonte

Reek or Evans

Keenan or AJ Brown

Herbert or Mahomes

Dobbins or Akers or Fournette or Zeke

Pittman or Metcalf

Etienne or Gibson or Jacobs or Mitchell

DJ Moore or Waddle or Diontae

Harris or Dillon or Breece Hall

Michael Thomas or Renfrow or Allen Robinson or Thielen or Amari


Have at it!

Henry
Mixon
Jones
Javonte
Evans
Allen
Mahomes
Fournette
DK
Etienne
Waddle
Hall
ARob

All of these are for PPR.

CMC by quite a bit, he simply has more upside. He’s my 1.01. I’m pretty worried about Henry. Titans O line is trash, and there is no AJB for the defense to focus on anymore.

Mixon, but it’s really close. I keep going back and forth on these two.

A Jones, I guess. Probably won’t really end up with either.

Saquon, because we know he will get the work, even though I’m worried he will never be close to 2018 Saquon again. Interested to see how Daboll uses him. Javonte is still a lot of hope and potential.

Evans, I guess. Fading both at ADP, probably.

Keenan

Herbert

Fournette by a mile

Pittman by quite a bit

None? Haha. I guess if I had to pick, it’d be Etienne. I think all of these guys have a good chance to disappoint.

DJM and hope he increases TD production.

Breece by a mile, he’s going to be a value. But I do still like Dillon. Harris won’t be anywhere near my teams.

Pretty easily ARob.

I recommend y'all reply like this. Easier to enjoy the content. Here are mine.

What step does Herbert need to take? He was QB2 last year and also outscored Mahomes on PPG.

I don't know that he's going to perennially be a top 3 QB yet. People like to reach for guys who have huge years at QB. Herbert getting 5000y last year doesn't strike me as something he'll easily repeat. I think Mahomes has already shown that when he has a down year like last year, he's still ridiculous. So I'll let someone else reach for Herb if that means Mahomes is there half a round later.

But don't get me wrong, I have Herb in dynasty and love him. I just prefer if people reach for him in redraft.

Sure, I doubt I’ll have either in 1QB redraft, because I simply don’t pay for QBs like that. But I think there is a really good chance Herbert has a better fantasy season.

The loss of Reek cannot be ignored, especially with what he was replaced with. Mahomes will still be top 10 with top 5 upside, but I don’t see him having QB1 upside like Herbert.

How is James Robinson out there coming back from an achilles tear before guys with ACL tears?
Amazing

Can’t believe he’s probably going to play week 1. Him and Akers are revelations.

I’ll be interested to see what they both look like on the field.

Whats up people - Happy fantasy football season!


Some random thoughts on this:

.

Some dude in a dynasy league that offered me Robinson for Fournette said that they do the surgery different now so thats why they recover quickly.

I don't know how true this is and it was a guy offering that shitty of a trade so he could easily just be full of it

There's 1 spot in the 5th year of my 2+2 $25 redraft league if anyone would like to join?

Roster: QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX(RB,WR,TE)/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN/IR
Scoring: Sleeper standard except it will be 6pt passing touchdown
Waiver Type: Free agent auction (continuous) $1000 budget
Play offs: 6 teams (top 2 seeded teams get a bye)