Settle an argument - if Nuk wasn't suspended 6 games, he'd be what WR ADP right now?

Between WR13 and 20

Brown has been been going about WR20 to 25 which I feel is one of the best values at the moment.

Now Hollywood isn't Hopkins but he's going to be the WR1 for a top offensive team for at least 6 weeks and giving Hopkins age I don't see why he can't take the WR1 role in before Hopkins returns

That contract made him fat and happy.

ADP wise, he'd probably be in the WR12-15 range. However, I think I might have him outside of the top 20. I'm not sure, because I haven't really thought about it haha.

He was showing some pretty bad signs last season before he got hurt. He didn't cross 100 yards once in 10 games and was being propped up by TDs. He caught a TD on 12.5% of his targets and on 19% of his receptions. His career rate is 5.3% of targets and 8.62% of receptions. If you extrapolate his production to 16 games, he would have only had 102 targets, 67 receptions, 915 yards, and 13 TDs. He hasn't been close to those target, reception and yard totals since his rookie season.

And then throw in the fact of PED use after already showing diminishing signs. He's probably just a fade for me, even with the discount.

Look at how fast Julio faded. It started in his age 31 season. Hopkins just turned 30.

As the guy that went Murray - Hopkins 1,2 in our redraft superflex last year believe me I know

It wouldn't surprise me if he's not the stud WR when he comes back but I still think he'll have a solid role but yeh I don't think I'd touch him in the top 20 WR at the moment even without the suspension. Though saying that I'd still take him over Gabe Davis ,whos been going in that range ,and with his current ADP he's going with the likes of Lazard and CEH so I have still been taking the punt on him in best balls even with the suspension.

Hahaha that is a tough start, indeed.

It looks like his non-SF ADP on Fantasy Pros is 96th overall and WR40. I suppose that's not terrible. And we at least know he will be back for game 7, unlike guys who are injured and may or may not be back/fully healthy even when they hit the field in the estimated timeline. Like Godwin, who knows when he will be back and what he will look like when he returns? He's currently going 56th overall and WR21. I certainly wouldn't be paying that right now with the uncertainty.

I just hate locking up a bench spot with someone for half of the regular season, especially since you can't IR suspended players. At least byes don't start until week 6, so you basically make it through his whole suspension without having to balance byes. I suppose Nuk does still have the upside. Who knows what was going on last season, but there is always a possibility that he finds his form from prior seasons.

The 5 WRs ahead of him are London, Burks, Bateman, Lockett, and DeVonta. The 5 WRs behind him are Aiyuk, Woods, Claypool, Wilson, and Kirk.

Of those 10 receivers, I think I'd take Nuk over Lockett, Aiyuk, Woods, and Claypool. I'll probably have zero shares of those 4 guys.

London, Burks, and Bateman are looking like values. Wilson and Kirk too. Wilson and Elijah Moore are too far apart in ADP, imo. Would much rather pay for Wilson at 106 than Moore at 76.

See i'll probably be avoiding them in redraft unless they fall a ton but in the massive field best balls taking a decent bit of Godwin is a must imo as you know your getting a WR1 going into the most important weeks of the contest. It's also why I've hardly taken Mike Evans in the 2nd as i see him running wild at the start of the season but fading abit in the last few weeks with Godwin back.

Also taking a ton of Micheal Thomas still dreaming of 2019

I have now did 100 drafts and I think I have either of Burks or London in 90% of them as i just don't see how London is not GTD to be top 30 WR at least and and feel the same about Burks just not as strongly.

I have completely been fading Moore and just picking up Wilson for cheaper aswell I think come the end of the season Wilson could be massive.

I have basically zero Lockett or Woods but still think Claypool is a decent value and Aiyuk really balled out at the end of last year so not completely fading him.

Oh yeah, best ball is a different world. Most of my posts are from a redraft perspective, but that seems like a fair way to think about Evans and Godwin in best ball. Either way, I don't trust MT at all. He could snap decide he doesn't want to play anymore by week 5. He's just too volatile for me at this point given his last two seasons.

Burks and London will certainly be inconsistent and have their down weeks, but I think they're going to have some nice boom weeks too. They'll probably be a bit frustrating in redraft and dynasty, but should give you some solid production some weeks in best ball. Atl and Tenn just really don't have many pass catching weapons, so they'll have no choice but to throw to Burks and London.

I agree on Wilson too.

I also don't trust Claypool. He had a few instances last year where it seemed like he was just not focused, pissing off Tomlin, etc. I know JuJu is gone, but I'm not really sure how much of a benefactor Claypool will be. I just don't see him having much of a ceiling, especially since I don't really think he got much of a QB upgrade. Maybe I'm too low.

I suppose Aiyuk is interesting. I think the SF passing volume will be very low with Lance starting, but if Kittle or Deebo go down, Aiyuk is going to have no choice but to catch some of the balls. I just realized Jauan Jennings is their 3rd WR lol. I doubt Lance will throw much to the RBs. But without an injury to a pass catcher, I definitely won't be excited about starting Aiyuk. I'm fine targeting his upside in the event of an injury at his price. But in that range, I'm just taking guys like London, Burks, and Bateman who are already their team's WR1s.

Is Burks ahead of Woods already?

Maybe not officially on the depth chart, but in my eyes he is. Could be a leak on my part and my dynasty mind overtaking my redraft mind, but I just don't really see Woods being that impactful. He was already showing some signs of slowing down last year before the ACL tear. Now he's a 30 year old receiver coming off of an ACL tear in a new offense. He'll only be 9.5 months removed from the tear to start the season.

He may be more productive (and I say that loosely) than Burks to start the year, but I think Burks finishes the year as the clear #1.

Obviously, it's more apples to oranges, but Tenn gave up a 6th round pick to get Woods. They paid AJB to get Burks (plus they got back a 3rd too).

I guess we'll see the camp reports say haha.

Finish the year, maybe, but Burks seemed a bit boom/bust even before he's had an awful time post-draft

Yeah, but it's not like he costs a premium. 92nd overall at WR38. Depending on the redraft league starting lineup, I can probably let him ride the bench the first few weeks and see. I think he has more upside than most receivers being drafted in that range, which is what I'm chasing at that ADP, anyways. I don't really think Woods has any upside, even if he is the de facto WR1 to start the year. Maybe I'm wrong about what Woods still has left in the tank and how he will fit with Tannehill. I will say, their WR depth chart is pretty ugly lol. Henry will definitely feast once again.

I don't really put much stock into minicamp or OTA reports, especially for rookies. If we're still hearing the same rumblings after training camp and he looks like **** in the preseason, then I'll adjust. But for now, I have him quite a bit ahead of Woods in my redraft rankings.

After the whole "Chase can't catch nfl balls" nonsense from last year the bad reports from camp on Burks are actually making me higher on him 😂

Keeper question

You can keep guys their whole career if you choose to just losing a round each year.

.5ppr

I can only keep 3 of 4

Waller 14th
Mclaurin 15th
Pittman 7th
Etienne 9th

Who is the choice to throw back? RBs are so hard to get because this league has been around for so long.
I think with WRs being deeper the choice is between Pittman and Mclaurin. Can’t decide

I like Pittman more, but I think the round difference slants it in favor of Terry.

Id say Etienne without knowing anything else.

Decline Pittman

My initial thought was to decline Waller given age but with Pittman in the 7th it has to be him.

I don't see how it could ever be Etienne.

On another note

Guys im so sorry for any stupid trade offers I sent last year in our dynasty league as a noob cause they are so frustrating.

I joined a couple of random orphan $25 sleeper leagues during the off season for a bit of fun and some the offers im getting are just insane.

someone just offered me Robinson for my Fournette and I've just replied with "how dumb do you think I am?"

The best one though ,where I have a very bad rebuilding team and it's a deep IDP league, I offered Lamar for Lance + Dillion + Shakir ( I mean thats bad on my side but wanted the fun gamble) and he countered with CMC for my Swift + 23 2nd. The **** is that counter and then went on to tell me how dumb I was for valuing Swift over CMC

And by slants in favor of Terry, I mean keeping him. I just realized jh’s post was asking who to cut and my post was who I’d keep.

Yeah, have to keep Waller at that price.

Etienne is certainly volatile, but round 9 value when he’s going round 4/5, depending on superflex or not has to be realized.

Pittman is the only one pretty close to ADP. All of the others are way more valuable than ADP.

Keeper decisions coming up.

Need to cut 1, ppr, one QB leauge:
Josh Allen
Chubb
Javonte
Adams
Keenan
Mclaurin
Zeke

Leaning towards cutting Zeke. Don’t really like Wentz but he’s prob better than heinecke. Prob prefer Zeke if it was redraft but mclaurin is prob too young and talented to cut in a keeper leauge. Zeke just seems like he could fall off a cliff this year and pollard looks pretty good.

My other leauge is a harder decision. It’s non ppr, start 2RB, 2wr, flex so rbs are at a premium. I need to keep 4:

Chubb
Tyreke
Kelce
Fournette
Dobbins
Montgomery
Akers
Elijah Mitchell

At the end of last season I was planning on keeping Chubb, tyreek, fournette and one of dobbins/Akers/Monty. I was ready to move on from Kelce and keeping tyreek but the trade to Miami has muddled that decision. All the rbs I was considering have had poor news coming out of camp. Sounds like Elijah Mitchell will be in a RBBC, Montgomery to split more with Herbert, Dobbins to possibly start season on PUP, Akers didn’t look good in playoffs, and fournette is apparently overweight.

Right now I’m leaning towards the top 4 listed; Chubb, reke, kelce and fournette but am monitoring dobbins situation. Any input appreciated

1st one I think it's Zeke even though I do think he'll still have a good year but we can't see much after that.

2nd one I think you have to keep Kelce cause he should have a big year and it's a massive positional advantage. Also keeping Hill and Chubb and flipping a coin on Dobbins and Akers

I agree and I’ve changed my stance on kelce and he should see a ton of targets this year. Why not fournette over dobbins/Akers though? He was like a top 5 rb last year and with Brady back should have another big year in that offense. The weight stuff seems overblown, he has time to get in game shape. Akers looked terrible when he came back last year and dobbins seems risky coming off an ACL injury. Luckily for that leauge we don’t pick keepers til late august so should have a better idea on dobbins status

I am much higher on Fournette this year than the others but feel there's a good chance he will be an insta drop next year whereas Dobbins and Akers have a lot of potential to be late 1st/ 2nd round picks.

Though we should be doing everything possible to win the title so that may move it in Fournettes favor.

I’ve been doing a bunch of the $25 best ball nog tourney leagues on Underdog just for funsies. I am in the middle of a slow draft where I am pretty sure my first several picks are 100% unique. Like everyone is multiple spots behind ADP. You should not be able to have this team. Assuming that don’t screw this up, this team has a ton of value in this tourney.