Welcome back for another year of driving yourself completely insane for the chance to earn far less than minimum wage. But as any true FF fan knows, it's about rubbing your friend's noses in the trophy.

The more things change the more they stay the same. Like last year, the running back is the centre of FF, with potentially 9 backs going in the top 12. Super Flex is taking over most leagues by storm, which is the only way anyone could find to make Sam Darnold relevant. Cooper Kupp is this year's wideout everyone will reach for, and it'll be interesting to see if he can live up to the adp hype (only a few ever have).

Massage and Amari Cooper fans are eagerly awaiting the loloutcome with Watson's suspension, which could start at a year. Some of the league's best wideouts found new homes, and it will be interesting to see where Adams and Reek slot among the WR1's (if at all).

You know the drill, we use a second thread for start/sit we'll create later. Till then make your bold preseason takes, ask for draft advice, ridicule the Giants, and get after it!

Solid intro Rafiki
Let's get ready to rumble!!!

I'm here for a season where I won't do as well as 2021, where I shipped 3 of 4 championships.

There is always room for improvement.

And to be fair, you ran pretty bad in the one you lost haha.

We've already talked about it some, but I say we get rankings going, even though they'll be a bit fluid over the next 2 months.

I'll carry over my top 10 from the last thread. I'll only do WR, RB, and TE, and then do a separate QB ranking since overall with vary considerably between SF and non-SF.

My rankings will always be for PPR.

CMC
JT
Kupp
Ekeler
Henry
Chase
JJ
Dalvin
Najee
Fournette

I did have Kamara at 10, but with the suspension uncertainty, I have to move him down.

10th for Fournette probably feels high, but I really don't understand why he isn't being ranked as a borderline top 5 back this year after what he did last year.

Mixon has to be ahead of Fournette and maybe even Najee. I am super fading Najee IMO.

Why do you hate Najee? I can't see Mitch or Pickett being that much worse than Big Ben.

His rushing efficiency wasn't even very good last year at 3.9/attempt. He averaged 17 rushes/game, and that seems like a decent o/u this year, and probably under as Tomlin might lean on him even more given the QBs. He also only rushed for 7 TDs, so not like he was crazy efficient there either.

Now, he did catch 74/94 balls, and I can certainly see an argument for less targets. But that's also propped up by his one game of going 14/19 for 102 yards.

If you remove that from the equation, he averaged 4.7 targets, 3.75 catches, and 22 yards, which seems reasonable. He also caught 3 TDs.

70 yards rushing, 3.75 catches, 22 yards catching, and an average of roughly .5 TDs per game puts him at an average of 15.95 fantasy points/game. That'd put him 10th in last year's average right with Dalvin at 15.9. The guys ahead were Henry, JT, Ekeler, Fournette, CMC, Kamara, Mixon, Conner and Swift. So having him as RB6 seems pretty reasonable. I for sure wouldn't take Conner or Swift ahead of him. I would probably have Kamara ahead of him without the suspension uncertainty. Maybe I should have him right behind both Fournette and Mixon.

Why does Mixon have to be ahead of Fournette? I mean I probably have him at 11th right behind, but I think I'm taking Fournette ahead of him.

Both are the top backs on their team with little competition and Fournette catches the ball a lot more than Mixon + has less overall touch competition on the offense. Especially while Godwin recovers and with Gronk's retirement. I think both Higgins and Chase are going to command more targets this year. I also don't see Mixon getting close to 16 TDs again when his norm has been half of that.

I'm avoiding all Browns this year except for Chubb, but ideally not picking him until early 2nd round if he lasts

I might take Baker as a flyer as a 3rd QB in Superflex.

I'm probably Najee>Swift>Mixon>Lenny

Pretty much based on ageism.

This would be mine at the moment.

JT
CMC
Kupp
JJ
Chase
Diggs
Ekeler
Henry
Fournette
Najee

Not massively different from yours except I'm big on Diggs this year and can not see JJ behind Chase. Also with you on Fournette, even more so, and been loving getting him at the end of the 2nd in best ball.

Best value in the 1st is probably Henry at the moment. I'm cautions taking a 28 year old back in the 1st but if he didn't go down last year he'd be a top 3 pick for sure.

PPR I probably go:

JT
Kupp
Ekeler
JJ
CMC
Chase
Harris
Mixon
Henry
Diglett

Damn, y'all are pretty high on Diggs, although I don't have him too far behind. Also, no Dalvin in the top 10 for either of you? One thing I expect to improve this season is his TD conversion. That offense doesn't have much outside of JJ and Dalvin as Thielen gets a year older, so hopefully that means more targets for Dalvin, too. He does have a big variable of a new coaching staff.

After some of the posts after my initial ranking, I've adjusted the top 10 slightly. I'll also add 11-20.

CMC
JT
Kupp
Ekeler
Henry
Chase
JJ
Dalvin
Fournette
Mixon

Maybe I should be swayed to put JJ over Chase, but I expect Chase to see a similar second year leap to JJ. But I guess I could just take the guy who's already shown that leap haha. I'll keep thinking on it.

Najee
Kamara
Diggs
Andrews
Kelce
Adams
Swift
Chubb
CeeDee
Evans

I probably have Cook at 11 to be fair. Just find it hard to bump him above those who I've put in the top 10 given:

- declining targets with Jefferson doing Jefferson things
- never stayed healthy
- even if healthy, thought occurs to me that they sprinkle in more Mattison to keep Cook fresher, with Mattison being a free agent after this season I tend to think they make it a slightly more even split
- wouldn't expect a 6 TD season again but the 19/20 TD counts seem unrealistic

Fair enough on Dalvin. All solid points.

Although, JJ was already at 167 targets last year. I suppose he could push towards 200, but I don't think that'll come at the expense of Dalvin, but rather the other receiving options. I also think it's perfectly reasonable for him to see in the 170 range again.

The last 3 seasons, Dalvin has averaged 4.5, 3.85, and 3.75 targets per game. It seems like 4/game is a reasonable expectation.

But on top of the TD decrease, Dalvin went from 312 rushes in 2020 to 249 in 2021 (in one less game played). I think that is a main byproduct of JJ's target increase. Yes yard per attempt dipped slightly from 5.0 to 4.7, but with the decrease in attempts, his total fantasy points scored on the ground decreased around 2 points per game.

He may not get to 13 or 17 scores, but I think 10 is a solid o/u where I'd take the over if he plays 14 games+. If he kept the same 2021 production but added 4 more TDs, that'd bump him up to 7th in fantasy points scored per game played for RBs. So much TD variance for RBs, especially with goal line opportunity so unpredictable.

But it is pretty sad Dalvin has never played a full season lol.

I have to admit I don't have good reasons for being low on Dalvin.

He's just 1 player I've never had on any team and just someone I've never targeted and just doesn't excite me.

I mean those are ****ing terrible reasons and not how you should play the game at all but I assume everyone has players like that no matter how well they have performed.

Haha, everyone has their reasons and biases. Why do you think I have CMC at 1.01?

One reason I have Dalvin at RB5 in my rankings is because I think he's one of maybe 5-7 RBs who actually has a range of outcomes of finishing at the RB1. Maybe I don't have enough downside baked into my ranking, but the upside will always be there with him on the field, imo.

Still CMC at 1.01 is still far more logical than **** Cook for no particular reason

I did take Cook in a best ball today and paired him in the 2nd with Mixon and really liked how the team turned out. Made me maybe change my strat a bit cause I keep going Diggs/Andrews when picking from the 1.10+.

Haha you have been crushing the best balls. How many drafts have you done so far?

Aight, time for my 21-30. I think I'll rank the top 50-75 and then the top 20 QBs and call it a day. I've also made some changes to the bottom half of the top 20.

CMC
JT
Kupp
Ekeler
Henry
Chase
JJ
Dalvin
Fournette
Mixon
Najee
Kamara
Diggs
Andrews
Kelce
Javonte
Swift
Adams
AJB
Evans

CeeDee
Higgins
Barkley
Keenan
Chubb
Diontae
A Jones
Hollywood
Reek
Waddle

Just checked there and it's 73 and thats just been in the past 3 weeks! It's actually becoming a problem basically every hour I have free i find myself just doing a draft

Some of these are really interesting. The bundle of Javonte, Swift and Adams would be different for me as i'd have Adams above both mainly because his target share in games where Adams hasn't been playing almost doubled.

Now we only have a 7 game sample without Adams but his targets went from 3.7 per game to 6.7 and his rec yards from 20.6 per game to 55.43. Now of course he has AJ Dillon stealing a ton of the ground work but I don't think it's a worse situation for him than Javonte and Gordon which I see as just being the same as it was last year with maybe a slight increase for Javonte.

With Swift I'd love to see a massive breakout for him but the team is still so bad that i'm mainly concerned about a lack of TD's.

Love AJB still in the top 20. He's been one of the best values in the 3rd at the moment as everyone is down on him for obvious reasons but he was already playing in a run 1st team so don't see how things will be that different.

I actually just did a trade for him in a super deep IDP league where I traded Tlaw for AJB + a 4th. Like it just now , should probably of went for a higher pick, but if Tlaw shows any promise this year it could be a shocking trade

Speaking of the best balls I think I've just drafted the winner in $5 Draft Kings.

Had someone take Allen in the 1st and another guy take Herbert in the 2nd and ended up with this team

QB - Hurts, Winston, Pickett
RB - JT, Fournette, CEH, D. Willaims, Evans
WR - Hill, Johnson, DJ Moore, London,Sky Moore, Palmer, AJ Green, Anderson, Hamler
TE - Goedert, Freiermuth, Everett

Was 1 pick away from getting Andrews in the 2nd which would have been amazing but Fournette and Hill shall do me

Haha that's awesome. I've never gotten into best ball, but I feel like it's something I should do for practice and some extra entertainment throughout the season. Where do you find your leagues? All on Draft Kings?


I'm a little confused what you're saying in the first two paragraphs. I think you are talking about A Jones in spots where you're saying Adams haha. Now that I'm looking at it again, I think I need to move Chubb and Jones above Keenan and Diontae, but I don't think I can go any higher right now.

I expect both Javonte and Swift to get at least 60%-70% of the snaps in their respective backfields while being the lead backs. I think the Gordon signing was more insurance than a return to a similar role, especially with him looking at other teams, how late the Broncos signed him, and then the meager contract they gave him. Javonte gradually increased his snap % throughout the season. He had less than 50% 7 of the first 9 games. He had less than 50% only once in the final 8 games. Add in an insane QB upgrade, and the ceiling is sky high for him, imo.

I expect Jones to get maybe 45-50% while gradually becoming the 1B. 4 of his last 6 games played last year, he had less than 50% of the snaps and rushed for single digits 3 times and for 10 one time. He legit has a range of outcome of finishing in the RB25-30 range if Dillon pushes him down in the backfield. I just don't see him having the same upside as Javonte or Swift. I respect the point about Adams and all of the targets that will need to go elsewhere, however, his rushing volume has continued to diminish with Dillon's increased role. And I'd put his target per game o/u at more like 5 than 7. Dillon will probably be my target in that backfield, especially since he will be able to be had rounds later than Jones. I don't think I'll have any of Jones at his ADP this year. Looks like Fantasy Pros data has him at 22 right now. Dillon is at 62.

I think the Lions offense will be better than we expect. Swift was pretty damn good in the games he played last season. He was 10th in average points scored per game among RBs, and I think that's his floor.

I definitely love the AJB discounts too. I actually think he sets a career high for targets in a season this year. The Eagles are going to feed him, especially with their JAG backfield. A lot of things going his way like the trade, the contract, the fact that Hurts wanted him badly, Hurts improving efficiency last year, etc.

Yeh I've just been entering the $5 $3.5mil GTD tourney on Draft Kings. Mainly just hoping I can get at least 1 team through to the final week as I think that could be a good buzz watching the games knowing if you run good you could make some serious cash

For you in the US there is also Underdog which I think is more popular. They have a massive $25 $6mil GTD best ball running

Haha I really need to stop posting 1st thing in the morning but yeh mean Jones not Adams

Very fair points actually. I should be higher on both Swift and Javonte and stop just avoiding them.

Hell Javonte has been going in the 3rd in most of my Best Balls and I don;t think I've taken him once but have a ton of Gordon in the 10th-12th

Same man. Like Smith put up decent number as a rookie last year and Brown is just on a different level

How are they guaranteeing 3.5M on a $5 league. Is this whoever scores the most points over a season over all their $5 leagues?

Well they have a cap of 837k entries and everyone can enter 150 times

basically you do a 12 team draft and the top 2 in that after week 12 go through to the next round. Then there is another 12 team league just for Week 15 and top scorer in that week goes though and the same thing happens for Week 16 then week 17 there should be just under 1k left with whichever team is top scorer winning it all.

It's really just a massive luckbox gamble but I love drafting so will probably end up maxing out the full 150 entries