Quote:
Originally Posted by jmill
Rodgers below Carr is spicy IMO. I get the weapons thing & I know you can point to 2018/19 for lower TD totals for him, but I think he's such a strong bet for 4400 yards, 30-35 TDs, super low INTs, + another 2-3 rushing TDs.
Fun fact: Rodgers has as many rushing TDs in the last 2 years (6 in 32 starts) as Carr and Stafford have combined in the last 5 years (6 in 153 starts).
*Also big on Mahomes despite him losing Hill- have him #3 behind Josh/Kyler & I think his 380 rushing yards last year went a little under the radar.
I'll understand anyone who has Mahomes in their top 3, because I think it's reasonable. But Reek was/is kind of the perfect receiver for Mahomes. He is such an underrated route runner, at least with respect to his skillset paired to Mahomes. It may not work properly with someone like Tua, but that's a side note. Reek was able to run himself into the perfect spots for the bullet accuracy arm that Mahomes has. They had multiple years of experience with each other. Mahomes is amazing with his throws, but if the receivers aren't good enough to get there, they aren't good enough to get there. And even if they are, it may take some time to figure it out.
MVS is terrible at routes. He's speed, and that's it. He had minimal fantasy impact with Rodgers, so I don't really expect it to get better with Pat. JuJu is an awful route runner too. His metrics say he's pretty much never open. I'm still not sure how he lucked into his 2018 season, but I think AB had a lot to do with it. And while I think Skyy has a chance to be a solid NFL receiver, he'll just be a rookie this year.
Defenses are going to be able to play the receivers one on one which allows them to focus even more on Kelce, which I think also limits Pat's upside. After thinking about things more, I think I'll eventually drop both Kelce and Andrews in my rankings. Both have some things working against them this year.
I'm not touching Rodgers with a 10 foot pole at what I expect will be his ADP. I may have him too low, but even if I move him up, I still think my final ranking would ultimately be quite a bit below his ADP because of name factor. They replaced 40% of his fantasy production with Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. Throw in Lazard/Cobb/Amari Rodgers and that WR group is pitiful. The TEs might even be worse with Tonyan and Deguara. After typing that out, maybe I'm too low on both Dillon and Jones, because what else do they have? Those two are easily their best skill players.
I'd bet the under on both 4,400 yards and 30 TDs for Rodgers. Ints will likely remain low because he doesn't make bad throws (although his receivers might hang him out to dry lol), but that doesn't really matter to me when I don't think yards and TDs have much of a ceiling. Fun stat about the rushing TDs, but that doesn't really move the needle for me haha. 3/season is simply 1 fantasy point/gm and may or may not have actually impacted a fantasy matchup.
Last edited by tarheels2222; 07-16-2022 at 02:13 AM.