I'm not worried about Harris, Mixon or Henry, as they will get a ton of points on the ground and through TDs. Not to mention, none of them have any competition in the backfield and they should all 3 be 3 down workhorses. Harris and Mixon should also be decently involved in the passing game. If healthy, they should all be top 15 backs with top 5 potential.

As far as the WRs, I have it ranked below.

DJ/Claypool/JuJu - I'll probably have a share or two of DJ and/or Claypool. I'm not targeting JuJu.

Chase/Higgins/Boyd - I really like Chase, but he could start slowly. Higgins should also be pretty decent, but I'm not sure if he will fully return value at ADP. Boyd seems like the odd man out, but I guess we will see. I doubt I'll have any of the 3 in redraft. I have a share of Chase in dynasty.

Evans/Godwin/Brown - Evans is the only one I'm interested in having, and that's mainly because Brady seemed to like throwing TDs to him haha. I wouldn't be surprised if I have none of these guys.

I love AJB, mainly because he's so damn efficient. He can be a top 5-10 WR on 7 targets a game. Having Julio on the other side of the field should only help. I don't plan to have any shares of Julio. I might or might not have any shares of AJB, mainly because I'm targeting other guys, like RBs, at his ADP. But I wouldn't be surprised if he returns value at ADP.

Thanks for this, yes i have zero concerns about the RBs...I love DJ and have no interest in juju...i like higgins a lot but his ADP keeps moving higher, i actually think boyd is good value...the tb and titans wrs do worry me at current ADPs and I'm hoping i dont have shares (will def have no julio, but will take AJB...the TB receivers definitely hoping i dont have)

Claypool is one of my biggest avoids this year. Much rather have JuJu at a lower price point.

Grunching here. I'll go back and read other responses afterwards.

I'm not worries about the amount of targets for any of those guys. Steelers/Bengals will throw it ~650-700 times while the Titans/Bucs will throw it ~550-600 times.

Each player will end up averaging a decent amount of targets, receptions, yards, and TDs, because they're good at football. There will be ebbs and flows to it as you might expect.

I expect Diontae, JuJu, and Boyd to be the high volume low ADot guys while Claypool Diontae, Evans, Godwin, AJB, and Higgins to be RedZone targets.

Chase, Antonio, and Julio scare me (for different reasons), but the potential is undeniable.

Mixon and Najee will be great.

Henry won't get many targets, because the Titans don't target RBs much.

Maybe the moral is to target their QBs.

I am finding the Mock Drafts too easy in spots 1-7, but I am getting killed at the 8-10 spots in 10-man QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,Flex,TE,D,K PPR format, especially when all the RBs are coming off the board in Round 1.

Do I just suck it up and go Reek/Adams 1/2 and then pick from Carson, Dobbins, Jacobs at the 3/4 turn?

Eckler

Both have mid/lower upper-tier ceilings with pretty low floors. There will be some 20+ point games and some mid single digit games.

From what I’ve seen, JuJu isn’t that much cheaper and I think Claypool has a higher ceiling.

I’m more concerned about Ben than anything else with regard to that offense. His arm could just be dead.

As 5 South said, Ekeler is solid. I also like Jones and Mixon. Maybe Najee too. I’m not really excited about Taylor, Gibson, CEH, Swift, etc.

I’m not sure how to feel about Barkley. I think once he’s back to full health and full workload, he will beast. But when does that happen? You could be a few matchups in the hole by then. I’m kind of past my old days of taking guys with injury/hold out/suspension issues at the top, even when they have really high ceilings.

You can’t go wrong with Adams/Reek as that gives you a nice weekly floor to start. And then just hope to hit and find RBs along the way.

+1 to Ekeler (but take him after Reek/Adams/Diggs).

If it’s a 10-teamer, I’d pounce on Kittle at the end of round 3; I don’t love any of Carson/Jacobs

I like Carson. He’s undervalued every year haha. I agree on Jacobs. Not touching him. I don’t like Dobbins either.

Also, I think Ridley belongs in the top 3 WR group you have. He’s going to be high value at ADP since he has the perception of being below those 3.

I’d probably rank my top 10 WRs as

Reek
Adams
Ridley
Diggs
DK
AJB
Nuk
Jefferson - but I’m concerned about him and doubt I have any shares.
ARob
Terry - fitzmagic!

Jones is my go to and probably whom I would get in my easy league, but he is gone before the 8th pick in sharp mocks. So I have been going Reek with Najee or Ekeler as you guys have suggested, but the problem becomes never getting a solid RB2. Like the general consensus, I don't like Dobbins/Henderson/Jacobs and I get Allen Robinson/McLaurin instead (Kittle is there so maybe taking him is better). My RB2s by the end are Gaskin, DJ, and Carter.

Because my league is soft I would prefer not to get Barkley because of his high variance.

For me, I am still taking best available RB (likely ekeler, but maybe saquon if we see better reports as season gets closer)...then any of the diggs/hill/ridley group if they fall, if not i just take another RB and then load wrs for the next 4 rounds...the wr/wr start looks so great after 3 rounds, but never feels great at end of draft for me

I am not drafting kittle this year, think they wont throw the ball enough and deebo and aiyuk solid as well (i want none of the pass catchers)...kittle will have some good weeks, but i dont think his weekly floor is as high as the majority thinks

I’m in a high stakes league with a bunch of casual players where you draft your draft position. Meaning if you randomly get assigned #1, you can choose to pick 1-10 (10 team half PPR).

So what you think on ranking the draft positions this year? At first blush I am thinking:

5
3
1
2
4
9
10
8
7
6

You can kinda tell I want a stud RB in the first round and where I think the drop off is. Biggest wild card for me is Aaron Jones. Would be thrilled with him at 8/9/10 but don’t know
if he lasts that long.

1
2
8/9/10
7
6
5
4
3

Pocket is going to have a team of just receivers, because he hates all of the backs.

Yeah, I think getting guys like Terry, ARob, Woods, Evans, Amari, etc. in the ADP 30-50 range makes taking a RB and/or Kelce late-first/early-second even easier.

I love Adams and Reek, but it's just tough to justify with the VORP WR vs RB at the top of the draft.

Don't overthink it. 1 and 2 are by far the top two spots. Doubt Jones goes that early in a draft with casuals, so Pocket's list looks pretty good to me. Could argue 5/4/3 over 6/7 if you have strong inclinations on the order of the backs in that range.

Especially 1.01. CMC worth 1.25-1.5x or the other top 2 round backs. Cook probably like 1.1-1.25x.

I don’t like the pressure of picking my draft spot lol. Would rather just let randomization pick it for me straight up.

My only non-auction that I'm in you get to pick based off your regular season finish the previous year. It is a keeper league and I'm fairly confident 50+% of the league doesn't even look at who they are keeping or who others are keeping before choosing their draft slot.

Sounds like a good league to be in haha.

As holmfries' rankings & Wheat's post suggests, it's really about avoiding tier breaks. There's a clear tier break between Cook and the other round 1 RBs (and CMC should be his own tier), there's a tier break in WRs after Ridley/Hopkins, and there's another after the Ekeler/Mixon cohort.


My placing 8/9/10 above 7 (for instance) is basically that I like the combo of 1.08 + 2.03 over the combo of 1.07 + 2.04. At 2.04 there's a greater risk of missing a tier break that I care about. If your tiers are more disperse, then you probably don't care about the distinction between 2.04 and 2.03.



Predicting where those tier breaks will occur in real drafts gets harder as you go further into the draft, but of course that's where mocks are helpful. And as you get further into drafts, I'd prefer to be in the "middle" instead of the ends of the snake, especially in a casual draft where it's more likely that value can fall to you (and thus I'd probably prefer 8 instead of 10, but balancing the tier breaks of early rounds might be more important).

What do your tiers look like for the top 15 or so at each position? I'd probably do the below, in no specific order within the tier, for PPR.

RB:

Tier 1: CMC

Tier 2: Cook, Henry

Tier 3: Kamara, Jones, Chubb, Ekeler, Barkley (although, probably not touching), Zeke, Mixon, Najee, JT, Gibson

Tier 4: Swift, CEH, Carson

WR:

Tier 1: Adams, Reek, Diggs, Ridley

Tier 2: Nuk, DK, AJB, JJ

Tier 3: Terry, ARob, Keenan

Tier 4: Evans, Amari, Woods, Kupp, Ceedee, DJM

Based on yours.

RB:
Henry in 3.
Kamara in 2.
Najee, Gibson in 4.

WR:
Ridley in 2.
Nuk in 1.
JJ in 3.

I can respect the RB movement for you, although I have less faith in Kamara if Taysom gets the job. If it's Jameis, I can see Kamara being in tier 2.

I put Henry with Cook, mainly due to durability, even though Cook will likely have a higher by game average in PPR. Cook has never played 16 games in a season. Henry has only missed 2 games in 5 seasons.

Don't sleep on Najee and Gibson. I think I'd rather have them over Chubb, Barkley, and JT.

I'm higher on Ridley than most, but he has a chance to be WR#1 this year. He also outscored Nuk last year on a per game basis by .8 per game. He was a step or two behind Adams, Reek, and Diggs, but I expect him to push up into the 20+ PPG average. In the 9 games where Julio didn't play the full game, he averaged 17.1. There was a weird goose egg game, so if I cherry pick and remove that, he's at 19.3.

You're right about JJ, he should be probably be in tier 3. I don't believe in him repeating last year, and he's being drafted as a tier 2 receiver.

Here is a video 5 South shared with me on Nuk. It's amazing he was able to be as good as he was last year. It keeps me from putting him in tier 1. ****ing Kliff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJs5pOBNK7A

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