I'd say 4th is possible. 3rd if you want to be sure to get him.

I had this Gus dilemma come up. I'm drafting in a 12 man, 1/2 ppr. In the 4th I was targeting Gus, but Monte was still available, and as above, I love him. So I snap draft him.

Fast forward to the 5th. It's my turn. Somehow, Gus is still there. There are maybe 2 donks in this league but everyone else is competent for the most part. Biggest leak is that there seems to be a general overvaluing of QB. Way more QBs have gone than should have.

So at this point, I'm about to fist pump take Gus, but notice that Tyler Lockett is still there. Now I'm conflicted.

Assume my first 4 were 2WR and 2RB, all of whom I am very happy with. I start 2WR, 2RB, and 1 flex. Who do you pick in that spot?

I hate Gus in PPR, as I absolutely refuse to draft guys who don't catch much. It's one reason I pass on Chubb at his ADP in favor of other guys who do catch. I'll also not own any Damien Harris.

But in 1/2 PPR, and especially standard, I can see Gus in the 3/4 round of 12 man leagues. 5th and 6th seems more like the value points.

I'd probably just rank the RBs as you had them with Dobbins, slot Gus into that spot, and then maybe move him down a few spots, and that's probably a pretty fair expectation. I think he'll get the roughly 60-65% snap percentage expectation as Dobbins without being quite as good of a player.

Don’t think it’s terrible, and CEH/JRob/Carson are fine there in 3, but Cook/Waller/Brown (or equivalent) seems like a better start to me. If other teams over-value rb, then take the value that they’re giving up by doing so. Especially in full PPR, you should be able to fill your rb2 spot with something manageable (Hines/James White/Gio types) while building a strong advantage at WR/TE that will more than make up for it. Worry more about winning the league than feeling comfortable.

Along those same lines, planning to pick Mattison when you have Cook is a huge leak imo, especially in a tough league where you’re going to need to catch some breaks to win. Mitigating potential loss is much less valuable than maximizing potential gain.

Except who is going to come in that is going to make a fundamental difference to the workload split? Jags aren't getting anyone who's better than Robinson. Ravens aren't getting in anyone better than Gus and seem set at backup anyway. Not a huge fan of the Gaskin/Brown/Ahmed committee but it's hard to see how anyone can make the upside of that group lower than it already is. Falcons I can maybe give you seeing how they've made cuts behind Ollison but who was drinking the Davis koolaid in the first place?

Yeah I take Gus there and for me it's not too close. I get what others are saying, but give me Henry or Chubb over the WR at that same level every time. There just are not enough RB's getting 20+ touches a game, and I want to own as many of them as I can.

In my league, RB's are worth a fortune in trades. We all hoard them because we all know this.


The difference in PPR between AJ Brown and Brandin Cooks last year was about 2 pts per game, give or take. And you'll find PLENTY of WR's within 3ppg. That's one name but I can find you a half dozen easy.

The drop from Montgomery or James Robinson to the next level of RB you'll get in the 4th (Sanders, Davis, Henderson, Gaskin etc) is more like 3-6 pts per game and that's if you're lucky. It could be a lot worse in a genuine RBBC (Sanders may find himself in a bad one for example).

I'll certainly contemplate how early I cuff with Mattison. But you can't really insure for Adams, Reek, Kelce, Mahomes, etc. You lose them your year ends. But Mattison is one of the few where you'd barely miss a beat. I like reducing some of that risk when the season is already such a grind.

Hey guys, we have 2 open spots, full point PPR league, draft is Tuesday night if anyone is interested.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post57295902

Yeah, but how sure is Mattison? We have a two game sample. I get that he is really the only other back on the roster, other than rookie Kene. However, I don't think he's just an auto plug RB1 if Cook goes down.

Game one - 48% snap share, also splitting time with Abdullah and Boone. He went 10 rushes for 26 yards and caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards. A score of 4 in PPR. Minn also got their ass kicked by the Falcons 40-23.

Game two - 62% snap share, still splitting time with Abdullah and Boone. He went 21 rushes for 95 yards and a TD and caught 3 of 3 targets for 50 yards and a TD. A score of 29.5 in PPR. Minn won a nail biter against the Lions, 37-35.

The two games that Dalvin missed in 2019, Mattison also missed.

So I guess we have a two game sample of his floor and ceiling, but saying you will barely miss a beat with him is a leap, imo. He's still one of the best cuffs, but I'm with wheat, you should be looking for upside. I'd be targeting other people's cuffs if the RB hoarding is really that serious. Or trying to be the strongest for at least two of WR, TE, or QB. It gives you more upside.

In the event of a Cook injury, would you rather be a non-Cook owner and have something like Zeke/Mattison or be a Cook owner and have Mattison/rando RB2-3?

Or using a Zeke injury, be a non-Zeke owner and have something like JT/Pollard or be a Zeke owner and have Pollard/rando RB2-3?

Pump the variance in the sharp leagues! That's where being in only 2 leagues can hurt though haha. If things go wrong in both, it's not a very fun fantasy season.

I have the #3 in a 12-man, so I get similiar players to you.

So far I've been going Kamara-Waller-Carson. I don't really love Carson there (you can pick your favorite of that group), but I like WRs that I can get later.

But for you - if your league hoards RBs, If you wait for the late 40s, Gus and Mike Davis won't be there, and then you probably will want WRs at that spot.


At 6/7:

-You are getting your RB2, who will be a low-end RB2

or

-You took RB2 in Rd. 3, and at 6/7, you can get a good WR3 or your choice of one of the good mid-round QBs.

I picked #6 in a 10-man PPR and went A. Jones (over Adams)/Ekeler/Waller (over AJ Brown), but lo and behold Brown fell into my lap on the way back in the 4th.

In all of the mock drafts, Waller was disappearing at the 2/3 turn. There is so much depth at WR you could wait forever before taking one.

Who do we like better in PPR K. Hunt or G. Edwards?

Did 3 ESPN drafts, all 10 team PPR. Like all of my teams but don't love any of them. Top WRs went too quickly for my taste and I targeted R7 for mid level QB. Drafted multiple times: Wilson, Hurts, Mixon, Gaskin, Lockett (thx Wheatsauce), DeVonta Smith.

Team 1 - 7 spot
Wilson/Hurts
Ekeler/Mixon/MDavis/Henderson
McLaurin/Julio/DJM/DSmith
Kelce

Team 2 - 4 spot
Hurts/Herbert
Kamara/Gibson/Mixon/Gaskin
Lamb/Lockett/DiJohnson
Goedart/Engram

Team 3 - 3 spot
Dak/Wilson
Kamara/Gaskin/Carter/DaJohnson
AJB/Woods/Lockett/DSmith
Waller

Edwards, hard to justify backup over starter even if Hunt will catch more passes, I like Gaskin better than both

Pick 4 in PPR seriously thinking pivoting to Adams if my choice is Henry or Zeke. Have been able to pick up CEH 100% of the time in mocks.

Insane?

I think Hunt is a special case. His targets+touches per game is not that much lower than Chubb. And if Chubb goes down, then Hunt is gold.

Yeah just go with Henry and hope Kamara falls to you. WR is too deep to go Adams there IMO. If you really don't like Henry or Zeke just go with Kelce.

It's definitely close in PPR and I don't like either at their ADPs (hate drafting RBs who can't catch in PPR) but what I don't like about Hunt is Chubb limits his upside and it's not like Chubb is injury prone. I think Edwards makes up for the PPR deficiency with his huge workload.

Kelce > Adams

If it's so bad that people are taking the likes of Josh Jacob types over Keenan or something then I agree with wheat that just take the gifts. You've already got cook locked in.
Is it a faab league? You can also be super aggressive with early season bidding when a possible RB2 presents itself.
RB in the 3rd I take Robinson of the ones you listed. He's got the least amount of competition for catches.

Yeah obviously Jacobs over Keenan stuff you're giving away a lot of edge. But I think we can agree on when those situations arise and how to avoid them.

If Waller goes before me it'll be RB/RB/WR.

The WR grouping on the turn is as follows, regular season and playoff strength of schedule listed beside their names:

Jefferson (8th, 32nd)
AJ Brown (25th,19th)
Keenan Allen (28th, 23rd)
Ceedee (26th, 27th)
Scary Terry (22nd, 4th)

Having checked them manually, Vikes, Cowboys and Titans schedule is indeed not great.

But Chargers and Skins have really nice schedules.

I think I might try for Keenan Allen there because AJ Brown probably doesn't survive the turn. But scary Terry could be sneaky here with a gun slinger throwing to him.

I seem to be the only person who has Keenan ranked above Ridley (in PPR). How wrong am I?

Mmm good question. Sometimes age here is a nice differentiator. But Calvin has had his share of injuries for a young WR.

Still probably Ridley for me but close.

12 team PPR - now what? Wanted to start RB-WR then BPA

RB Kamara
WR Metcalf
WR AJ Brown (CEH, JRob, Godwin, Kittle)
RB Swift (panic pick, hoping Carson but Jacobs, Edwards, Davis )
QB Wilson (Thielen, Dionte, Hock)
RB Hunt (JuJu, Chase, Claypool)
TE Logan Thomas (Sutton, Shenault, Boyd, AB)
WR Fuller (Corey Davis, Waddle, Marquise Brown)
RB Drake (Carter, R Jones, AJ Dillon)


LMAO - dont even want to say the rest of my roster - for some reason I thought locking up the Texans backup RBs was a solid strategy

RB Ingram
RB Lindsey
QB Stafford
Rams
K Tucker
WR Agholor
WR Sanders
RB D Williams
WR Trequan Smith


Now I have a bench with almost zero upside, needed a week1 fill-in for Fuller while he serves his 1 game suspension so I was just grabbing any WR that may see 4+ targets

Is Kamara census 3 in half ppr

Top 3 for sure. Reasonable argument to go Kamara > Cook

Ridley has a chance to break the target record for a season. I know there is an extra game, but even without that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push the record. Marvin Harrison has the record at 205, Megatron is second at 204, and Julio is third at 203 in 2015. Ridley could have a Julio 2015 season, with more TDs scored. The targets may not always be efficient, but the volume is going to be insane.

He’s competing for targets with Gage, Olamide, Pitts, Davis and now Gallman. Ryan is going to feed Ridley, because he really doesn’t have many other options lol. We know how much Ryan likes to lock in on his top guy. This is another reason I’m quite high on Pitts this year and have him at TE4, even as a 20 year old rookie. He’s going to have a lot of opportunity.

Their defense sucks so they are always going to be behind.

Keenan is a great player to have and should push 150+ targets, but he doesn’t have nearly the ceiling of Ridley. Also, Ridley has caught 9, 7, and 10 TDs in his 3 seasons. The most Allen has ever had is 8.

Even if Ridley doesn’t break the target record, he should definitely surpass the top target getter from last year in Diggs at 166.

Ridley could be WR1. I don’t see any chance for Allen to be WR1.