We are roughly 2.5 months away from the start of the season. I look forward to another 4 months of pain, misery, and ultimate joy when I pull out at least one ship from the jaws of defeat.

Fantasy football is akin to poker where most of the time no matter how great the moves we make, we end up a loser. Maybe that’s why we always come back for more with the hope of avenging prior season pain.

On draft day your team looks great. By week 9, you’ve lost more than half the team you drafted and some guy you didn’t even consider before the season started is suddenly your top scorer.

With that said, I’m changing my mindset this year. In prior seasons I’ve ranked by position. This year my only focus is a relative ranking among all positions.

I plan to do at least 10 posts of 10. Maybe I’ll go for more, but the top 100 seems like enough, as anything after (and before) is all variance. But we love variance, right?

Good luck to all this year (expect if I happen to be playing you ).

Without further adieu, here is my top 10. I didn’t want the first post to be super long, so figured a follow up post was better.

Flame away. Tell me I suck. Tell me I won’t win a game. Criticize me to the core so I can build a winning team.

I only play PPR, so everything posted is based on that format.

TLDR;

CMC
Henry
Cook
Barkley
Kamara
Reek
Adams
Ekeler
Kelce
Zeke

CMC - First off, I’m a Panthers fan. We can get that out of the way. I still have him as my undisputed top player. He ran bad with injuries/a shitty team last year. But if you have the first pick, especially in redraft, I don’t think you can take anyone else ahead of CMC. Darnold is a wild card, but if the games CMC played last year were any indication, he’s going to be a massive part of the offense. Mike Davis went to Atlanta. CMC’s only real backup is a rookie Chubbard. I’d actually be okay if his snap % dropped from 95+ to 80-85 as I think it would help him stay fresher.

Derrick Henry - I can’t believe I just wrote him at 2, but it’s tough not to. If you look back at my posting history, I’ve been a big Henry hater. However, he’s about as solid as it gets. While his ceiling might be slightly lower than Cook, Barkley or Kamara, his floor is quite high. He’s super durable. His rushing and TD production is enough to offset the lack of receptions. And with the addition of Julio, he’s going to be seeing 6 or 7 in the box all season long. I don’t see how he can be stopped (without an injury, of course)

Cook - The production tells me I should put him here. The gut feeling tells me a rough season is upon us. He’s never played 16 games. The Vikings had quite a few coaching changes on the offensive side, although son Klint took over for father Gary at OC. I wonder if they’re going to try to open it up more with Kirk and throw the ball more. But Dalvin is too good when he’s on the field to not rank here.

Barkley - If he’s made a full recovery, he has a chance to be RB1. There is some risk here, as each player comes back differently from an ACL tear, especially in the first year. But he’s shown a ton of potential when he’s on the field. Saquon is a freak and he’s still very young, so the body should hopefully heal quickly. The Giants improved their receiving group, which should open things up even more. The big question mark? Daniel Jones. I hope Daniel makes a leap, and if so, Saquon will be a big part of that.

Kamara - He’s going to have games with 30+ and he’s going to have games with 7 or less. I think it’ll be a weird season for him transitioning away from Brees. Hopefully the coaches lean on him more, but with the Murray committee and the QB uncertainty, I’m not sure I’m drafting him here. However, he gets the 5 spot due to potential.

Reek - ❤️❤️❤️that’s all I’ve got to say. He’s going to be the top receiver if he and Pat stay on the field.

Adams - I’m a huge Adams lover. He’s a beast. But Rodgers is a big part of that. Adams’s ranking is completely dependent on Rodgers. This ranking assumes Rodgers is the day one starter, which seems like a flip at this point. If no Rodgers, then I have to move Adams down. But I’ll slot him here for now.

Ekeler - I debated putting Ekeler ahead of both Kamara and Barkley, but I couldn’t pull the trigger for now. SD has some other backs out there, but Ekeler’s production, especially in the receiving game is too hard to deny. He only had 3 TDs last year and some injury issues. Seems like positive regression is in his future. I probably won’t draft him this high everywhere, but I’m going to make sure I have a few shares. That SD offense is going to be explosive, and they don’t have much of a defense. You can slot him for roughly 20 touches a game.

Kelce - He’s probably got 2-4 seasons of this kind of production in him left. But he’s so far ahead of the other TEs, that VORP puts him here alone, even if it feels dirty ranking a TE at 9. He’s so damn good.

Zeke - Let’s not forget how good Zeke has been and was when Dak is on the field. He had a rough going once Dak went down. But assuming Dak can get back to form, Zeke has a chance to finish in the top 5 of RBs. He was around 22 PPG last year before Dak went down. He’s 25 years old and ideally coming into his prime off of a rough second half of the season. I’m looking for a solid bounce back from the entire Dal offense. Let’s hope Dak’s leg has fully healed.

No real issues with your top 10 IMO.

I think the top 5 are pretty baked in, the more interesting part to me is who goes around the first turn and in the second round. Mixon, Metcalf, Ridley, CEH all seem like reasonable value to me in 2nd/3rd.

Aaron Jones? How high does Chubb go? Some will draft Taylor like a first rounder.

WR is really interesting to me. Tons of value there this year. How low does Mike Thomas go? You can get guys like Evans, Godwin, Amari in the 4th/5th rounds. Yahoo has Kupp at ADP of 59.2 -- seems amazing value with Stafford.

Definitely. I haven’t thought it all the way through yet, but quite a few of those guys you listed will be in my 11-20 range. Definitely going to be a lot of WR value late, which was also the case last year.

Probably going to be RB heavy in the first 2-4 rounds again.

So here's my dynasty team. This is a 12-team league, half-PPR. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex, TE.

QB: LJax, Cousins
RB: Kamara, Henry, Mike Davis, JRob, Moss, Pollard, Darrynton Evans
WR: Tyreek, MT, Godwin, DJM, Gallup, AB, Hamler, Tre'Quan, Duvernay
TE: Andrews, Trautman, Henry

Draft picks: 2021 4th round, 2022 1-4 rounds

League is entering its fifth year. I won the first year, came in fourth the second, won third, came in fourth last season. I don't really like the league. Don't like the people and their inactivity. So I'd be ok winning in my odd year and quitting.

All trades I offer are probably unlikely to happen, but there does tend to be more movement during the draft in this league than during the season.

I've thought of targeting Zeke from a rebuilding team, possibly offering Godwin, Mike Davis and Moss. I'm thinking DJM to a rebuilding team for Keenan. There's a guy with like 8 picks by 3.03 who might want to put some off until 2022. So I've thought of offering my 2022 1st and 2nd for 1.12, 2.10 and 3.03. Then offer 1.12 and 2.10 for Kupp, whose owner put him up and is looking for picks.

I've also considered a wild card of offering Kamara for 1.1, Carson and Lockett.

I don't think Davis, Moss and Godwin is enough for Zeke, especially for a team in rebuild mode. Godwin is the only attractive long-term asset there, and I'd probably rather have Zeke. I guess it depends on the rest of his team, but I don't think much of Davis or Moss for this season or the future. I guess Moss at least has a chance, but I don't see him being better than a committee back who is capped due to Josh Allen's rushing threat. Davis is on his 6th team in 7 seasons, and while Atl doesn't have much in the backfield, he just doesn't inspire much confidence.

DJM for Keenan is probably fair, but DJM could have QB problems his entire career, whereas Keenan looks like he has a pretty solid one. Who knows? DJ is 5 years younger. Maybe Darnold comes in, rinses the Jets off of him, and does something. I certainly hope so as a Panthers fan and an owner of his in one of my dynasty leagues. But I think it's more likely he flames out. The Panthers also added 2 receivers and a TE in the draft.

The 2022 1st/2nd for 1.12 , 2.10, and 3.03 is probably fair. I guess he'd be banking on the 2022 1st and 2nd being higher than 1.12 and 2.10, but if you have one of the best teams in the league, that's probably not a gamble I'd take. I'd rather have the players now. Especially giving up the 3.03.

Don't think I'd give up 1.1, Carson and Lockett for Kamara, but I guess it would depend on my roster and if he got 1.1 because he had the worst team in the league or if he got 1.1 due to a trade.

I'm down on Kamara moving forward, especially if Taysom gets the starting job. And even if it's Winston, he didn't really throw to the back much in Tampa. Not many QBs throw the back as much as Brees did, and that alone is going to hurt some of Kamara's value. I didn't even like putting him at 5 in my ranking, but put him there based on potential and the results we've seen thus far.

It's a small sample, but Kamara only averaged 14.2 ppg in PPR in the 4 games Taysom started, with only one going over 22.4. He got 10 targets in the 22.4 game, but other than that he had 1, 2, and 3 targets in the other 3 games. Obviously, Peyton is going to want to get the ball in Kamara's hands, but sometimes the game script is just not going to work out that way if Taysom is starting. And a lot of times Taysom is going to take off running rather than dump it, whereas Brees pretty much never ran, especially the past few seasons.

My hope for Kamara is definitely based on Winston starting. Winston did target the RB a lot. Plus the lack of receiving options in NO could get Kamara more touches. The guy with 1.1 is in win-now mode and traded for the pick. You seem lower on Mike Davis for this season than most.

I don’t look at DJM as a possible flameout. I look at him as having put up 1100+ yards each of the past two seasons with two of the worst QBs in the league. Now he’ll need to do it again this season. But he’s eventually going to get with a good QB and has the potential to shoot to superstardom. I’m just looking for a player who will do better this season.

I'm sure some of it was the scheme and game plan, but Winston is a chucker haha. You're right about the lack of receiving options ideally benefitting Kamara, though. But if the guy is in win-now mode and traded for the pick and needs immediate RB help, Kamara could be attractive for sure. I'm just not sure the value of exchanging the difference between Kamara and Carson for Lockett and 1.1 is enough.

https://www.canalstreetchronicles.co...-winston-at-qb

"Jameis Winston is not know for a conservative approach. Certainly not the way that Drew Brees is. Before the 2019 season, Drew Brees had targeted running backs more than any other quarterback since 2009. He went to his backfield option 27.1% of the time.

Meanwhile, Winston targeted outside receivers at the second-highest rate in that same timeframe with a whopping 43.1%. He also targeted backs only 16% of the time, 20th since ‘09."

"2019:
Alvin Kamara: 81 receptions on 95 targets (25/28 with Bridgewater)
Tampa’s Backs: 84 receptions on 103 targets (only Winston)

2018:
Alvin Kamara: 81 receptions on 98 targets (Brees)
Tampa’s Backs: 68 receptions on 84 targets (Winston/Ryan Fitzpatrick)

2017:
Alvin Kamara: 81 receptions on 96 targets (Brees)
Tampa’s Backs: 74 receptions on 97 targets (Winston/Fitzpatrick)"

As far as Davis, he really only had a couple of good games last year, and that was when he first took over for CMC. He seemed to lose steam quickly. Add in the fact that it's his 6th team in 7 seasons, and I just don't think he's much more than a journeyman that can give you a good game here or there. I certainly don't see him becoming a feature back touching it 20 times a game for a full season, especially with the disastrous Falcons. He crushed weeks 2-5 (week 2 was when CMC was injured and Davis caught it 8 times playing 32% of the snaps) averaging 22.65 in PPR. Then in weeks 6-16 he averaged 11.49 in PPR. His snap % did decrease a little bit.

I like DJM. He's a good player. And you make solid points about his prior QB history. Darnold can't be worse (or can he? haha). His lack of TD production is a bit frustrating, but he should be able to put up catches and yards. Supposedly the Panthers really want to push the ball downfield, which should benefit DJM. But I'd certainly be happy to trade DJM for Keenan if I were you.

I remember that 2019 Winston season you mentioned, that Winston dumped it off quite a bit, as the stats show. He also threw a ton, so the percentage of throws to the RB wasn’t that high but the totals were. Obviously, he also didn’t have Kamara to throw to then. But I agree that’s probably asking for a lot. I just don’t want to give up Kamara without getting a lot. Especially since I too am in win-now mode.

I don’t disagree that Davis is pedestrian. After a hot start when CMC went down, he was pretty worthless after CMC went down the second time. But some are seeing more value there as the featured back in ATL. Even if he does well this season, he’ll be an aging RB for dynasty.

DJM's last two years are more consistent than I thought, the TD rate is a bit low but should regress on the positive side. But in that offense, CMC has all the TD equity.

Since your league is already pretty inactive, I'm assuming they won't be willing to give you enough for Kamara. But who knows? Your better bet is to probably ride him. But I know you'll keep throwing out offers until something sticks .

Peak starting lineup of

Lamar
Kamara
Henry
Reek
MT
Godwin
DJM
Andrews

is pretty damn good.

But if I were to flip Kamara, I'd probably be looking for at least 2 RBs in return. I'm guessing if the guy at 1.1 needs RB help he will be looking at Najee. That's probably who I'd take a 1.1 in a .5 PPR non-super flex league.

I'm in a PPR 12 man super flex dynasty and we already did our rookie draft. Chase was the first non-QB off the board at 4 and then Najee went at 6. Pick 5 was also a QB. Might be better to hold now and try to make a mid-season trade.

And yeah, regardless of how Davis does this year, he is not an attractive dynasty asset.

DJM has been pretty good. And his stats aren't really supported by one or two monster games. He's pretty consistent on a week to week basis.

His best yardage game the past two years is only 131 yards. His career best was 157 yards his rookie season. So he commands a decent target share and just chips away each week. I'm not sure if TD rate will go to the positive side, since like you said CMC has all the TD equity. Unfortunately, I think he's been near average expectation, maybe 1 or 2 short. I'd say 8 is probably his peak expectation for a season and that might be generous. He seems to be more of a middle of the field kind of guy, so his TDs are going to mainly come from catch and runs.

The Panthers defense has also been horrid the last two years, so we've had to throw a lot from behind. I'm expecting it to be better this year, but it'll probably still be somewhere in the bottom half of the league.

Yeah I was suspect about his totals so I had to check his game logs and agree, pretty consistent. Semi-high floor of like 60 yards every week, but just hasn't had the Reek, Davante, Diggs, DK type ceiling yet.

Definitely, and I doubt his ceiling will ever get to those guys. That’s what makes those guys top picks haha. Speaking of which, let’s go 11-20.

TLDR;

Jones
Mixon
Taylor
Ridley
Gibson
Chubb
Harris
Diggs
Nuk
Jefferson

Jones - I’m biased, but he’s my boy. He was my most owned player last season. Williams is gone. Dillon is there and they drafted Kylin Hill but I’m not concerned. I actually think the Jones snap % increases with Williams gone because I don’t think Dillon or Hill are better than Williams or offer a better skill set than Jones or Williams. GB just had to pay one, so they chose the better player in Jones, and I think he actually took less than market value. This also somewhat depends on Rodgers, as I don’t think Love will help Jones be as effective. But as of now, he’s here for me if Rodgers is locked in.

Mixon - Yeah, this seems high. However, the potential is there in that offense, and based on some of the Sleeper notifications I’ve been getting, it sounds like that backfield is all Mixon’s. His ADP will be lower than this, but my rankings are based on expected finish. I think Mixon will be value whenever he falls.

Taylor - I put him here on potential alone. He had quite a few nice games last year, especially in the last few. But I worry about Reich and how he likes RB committee backfields. Hines is still there and they re-signed Mack. Who knows if Mack can be effective? But the Colts were at least willing to pay him to be there. Rivers is also gone, Wentz is a wild card, and Eason or Ehlinger is it after that. You are certainly drafting for ceiling here. I’m not sure I’m taking him at expected ADP.

Ridley - Yes, please. Bad defense, Matt Ryan love, no Julio, a bad backfield, no other options, etc. Ridley has a good shot to he WR1, and I question if this ranking is too low. He might average 15 targets a game (maybe a slight exaggeration but maybe not).

Gibson - I think he’s going to thrive this year. Ron loves to ride his backs. Fitzmagic has one more good year in him. If Gibson can stay healthy, he has top 5 potential.

Chubb - His TD dependency gives me a lot of pause, but damn is he good at scoring. Is it a dependency if he does it consistently? He’s like a Derrick Henry light, mainly because Chubb has a backfield mate who might be just as good. If Chubb had the backfield to himself, he’d easily be in my top 5. Chubb doesn’t need the passing down work to give you meaningful points each week.

I might have him slightly too low, but the potential multi-week poor ground game/poor TD variance gives me pause in PPR. He’s certainly a top standard back, but with Kareem getting a lot of the passing down work plus some of the running game, it just makes it tough for me to fully trust Chubb. But I’ll probably get burned for it.

Harris - My first rookie off of the board. Pittsburgh Steelers. Love of RB. Poor backfield. Harris as a 1st round pick. Big Ben in the twilight of his career. Najee’s beast of a game. He has a **** ton of potential in this offense with little backfield competition. This is certainly a gamble, but it could easily payoff.

Diggs - This is a steal. He may not quite hit last year’s numbers as they were insane, but even if not, he should get close so who cares? Him and Allen will crush again

Nuk - He shouldn’t be this low, but his adp will likely be around here. Snag him. That offense has historic potential assuming Kyler makes another leap.

Jefferson - I have a not so great feeling he might be in for a sophomore slump. He was really good last year, ran hot with Cousins, and beasted fantasy. But I’ve noticed it’s been tough for rookie WR crushers to immediately come back and do it again, especially those with mediocre QBs. Maybe he helped propel Kirk, but Kirk still is what he is. Jefferson is being drafted here on potential, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up outside of the top 15 WRs, whether it’s injury or regression based.

Diggs too low IMO - think he’s gotta be the WR3 (after Reek and Adams) - gotta grab him ahead of all of those RBs (except maybe Jones)

I like that you have Taylor a lot lower than consensus (he’s 1.11 on fantasyPros for PPR)...though at that point at the draft, Taylor & Jones are the only RBs I like...Zeke/Mixon/Ekeler feels like RB landmine territory.

I tend to value RB more than WR in the first 3 rounds, especially when WR is as deep as it is. I’d be willing to move Diggs ahead of the 3 backs in front of him right behind Ridley. But I have Ridley locked as WR3 after the Julio trade.

Diggs set a really high bar last year. He might be able to get back there or he might drop a little bit. That Buffalo offense can certainly be just as elite, though.

I think Taylor still belongs in the top 15, but I’m not sure how good I feel about it if I end up drafting him. And after thinking about it some more, I might rather have Gibson, Chubb and Harris ahead of Taylor.

Crazy the historic company Jefferson is in though. It's what, like OBJ, Moss, Boldin, am I forgetting anyone? That's the list.

Sicker still was for the first half of the season they didn't even put him on the field much compared to the back half.

He's the one that has me wondering if any of these runt sized rookies this year could be that good. Because mostly I really don't like this rookie draft in dynasty.

Here's some PPR heat for you


Thomas or Jefferson?

Swift or Carson?

Akers or Najee?

Keenan or Terry McL?

Julio or Ceedee?

DJ Moore or Diontae?

OBJ or Chase?

Dak or Lamar?

Hebert or Russ?

Claypool or Aiyuk?

Golloday or Lockett?

Jeudy or Cooks or Fuller?

My 2 cents

Thomas or Jefferson? Thomas

Swift or Carson? Carson (and I'm not a Carson guy)

Akers or Najee? Najee

Keenan or Terry McL? Keenan

Julio or Ceedee? Julio

DJ Moore or Diontae? DJM (but I love Diontae)

OBJ or Chase? OBJ

Dak or Lamar? Dak

Hebert or Russ? Russ

Claypool or Aiyuk? Samesies

Golloday or Lockett? Golladay

Jeudy or Cooks or Fuller? Cooks

Jefferson
Swift
Akers
Keenan
Ceedee
DJ Moore
Chase
Lamar
Herbert
Aiyuk
Lockett
Jeudy > Fuller > Cooks


aka Precept and I disagree on almost every one. pretty funny.

lol I fade about 80% of your choices. That's why this is fun

my pony was slow

Haha. It is fun.

@Dizzyqtp I was thinking of running a Superflex league with lots of flex spots on Sleeper.

Are you going to run your league again? That was you...right?

Didn’t read anyone’s post before giving my answers. Just wanted to see how I compared haha.

I also got the first pick in my 8 man PPR league. CMC!