Top 10 super early players in the top 100 in PPR you are NOT drafting at their current ADP. Mine:

Austin Ekeler (1.03?)
Devante Adams (lol 1.12)
Josh Allen
Tyreek Hill
Waddle
CEH
Deshaun Watson
Trey Lance
Chris Carson
Either Miami RB


I'm shocked to see Allen Robinson 7.01. Maybe league winner there?

What ADP is that?

I've been doing a ton of the best ball drafts and most of them are off. I get that in best balls the WR's get pushed up the board quite a bit but still don't get what you dislike about the following so much:

Ekler is 1.06/1.07 everywhere I've seen
Waddle is late 3rd to mid 4th (which is don't think is terrible)
CEH is 6th/7th (Not bad but I have been avoiding him)
Trey lance has been going about the 9th/10th making the perfect back up QB
And Chase Edmunds has been going anywhere between 9th to the 11th and I need to stop drafting him but I think thats amazing value


Where as Allen Robinson has been mid 4th to late 5th which i've been avoiding but would def take him in the 7th

Also where do you think Adams should be going? After Kupp, JJ, Chase and Diggs I think he's the next best WR but I guess I wouldn't disagree if you wanted Lamb, Debo or possibly Mike Evans but that would still make him a top 8 WR and mid to late 2nd at worst

Fantasy football calculator's adp is a pretty nice sample size given the real time volume.

I think Waddle is in a real nice spot for heavy regression.

+1 to avoiding Ekeler at 1.03. 1.06/1.07 seems “correct” for Ekeler even if that’s not FFC PPR ADP.

I’m surprised CMC isn’t the 1.02 in PPR, but after 2 seasons of missed games, I get it. I’ll still take him over Henry, but if I’m 1.02-1.05 I’d prefer a top 3 WR. So probably no Henry shares for me this year.

TE: Andrews in late-2nd feels like a trap. If Pitts is at end of 3rd I’ll snap him. Wouldn’t be upset with Kittle for late-3rd/early-4th.

4th round ADPs on FFC looks like a lot of puke...hate paying that price for a lot of the WRs after Metcalf/Higgins...I probably accumulate a bunch of DJ Moore shares if I’m at the 4/5 turn since I’m not thrilled with who else is there.

QB: I like whoever suggested targeting Carr as the end of a QB tier.

Time for a 2022 thread?

I have CMC at 1.01. But I understand why everyone else has JT. I think CMC and JT are in a complete tier by themselves, regardless of which one you have first.

It’s just really tough for me to dock a guy for injuries whenever he is a league winning superstar on the field every single game he plays. I’ll take the variance every time for that kind of production.

Then I’d probably rank it to round out the top 10:

Kupp
Ekeler
Henry
Chase
JJ
Dalvin
Najee
Kamara

Andrews was definitely a trap before the Hollywood trade, but I have him and Kelce neck and neck for TE1.

Baltimore will run more this year, but they have Andrews, Bateman and then a bunch of scrubs as pass catchers. Even if Balt throws less, I expect Andrews to maintain a similar target total with a higher target share. Speaking of Bateman, he’s way too low in that ADP for being the top WR on his team, especially with such a murky depth chart behind him.

Think I’m fading Kittle and the rest of the 49ers pass catchers assuming Lance is the starter.

I don’t really want DJM, but all of the guys in that range have pros and cons. Maybe this is the year he scores more than 4 TDs.

I love Chase as he helped me to my first championship in my longest running league last year but I think JJ has to be ahead of Chase.

In a redraft I really want a top 7 pick because I am really worried about Najee and Kamara (unless something gets resolved with his legal stuff).

Wow I'm the complete opposite as I feel Pitts is the trap in the 3rd/4th but Andrews has been my favorite target if I can get him mid to late 2nd. I mean Andrews had 154 targets and Brown had 145 even if they do throw it 25% less I can't see him having less than 125 targets at worst.

Whereas with Pitts I don't really see why it's felt he should improve so much on his 110 targets last year and he only had one TD (Andrews has had 7+ last 3 years). I know it's not the consensus but I still think we shall see London outscore Pitts this year and he's been my favorite pick in the 8th/9th.

You have the honors!

I'm still torn on who I put ahead of who, which is why I have them back to back in my rankings. It just depends on if you expect a second year leap from Chase or not. I use leap very loosely haha. But he had 81 receptions on 128 targets for 1,455 and 13 TDs. I expect his yardage and TD numbers to probably remain close, while his targets and receptions increase. But the ceiling is targets and receptions increasing with yards also increasing. I'm not going to touch on TD variance, but double digits seems pretty likely if they use him the same way and he stays healthy.

JJ was 108 for 167 for 1,616 and 10 TDs. So even if Chase's TDs decrease, if he gets more receptions and yards, it puts him right with JJ. JJ doesn't have the same target competition as Chase, but their rookie seasons were very similar. JJ was 88 receptions on 125 targets for 1,400 yards and 7 TDs. Chase could also just do what he did last year, and that point, JJ is the higher scoring player.

I won't argue with anyone who has JJ ahead of Chase. It's splitting hairs, imo. But I will say, I think Kupp, JJ, and Chase are far, far ahead of the rest of the WR pack.

As far as Kamara, I hope that situation is much clearer by draft season, but if it's still up the in air, I'll just fade him completely.

I think you and I agree haha. I was saying before Hollywood was traded, I thought Andrews was a trap if people were simply looking at his 2021 production and expecting the same. With Hollywood gone, I don't know who I'd rather have as my TE1 between him and Kelce.

Balt had 611 passing attempts last year. That puts Andrews at a 25% target share. Over the last 3 seasons, Lamar has averaged 27.5 attempts/gm which is 470 on the season. I actually think Andrews's target share is probably more like 30% with Hollywood gone which would put his projection at around 140 targets.

I haven't decided if Reek's departure helps or hurts Kelce. You can argue that it helps Kelce by saying that he's by far the more reliable receiving weapon for Pat and Pat might target him even more. You can say it hurts him because the defense can focus on him more by not being pulled down the field or to one side of the field with Reek. JuJu, Skyy, MVS, etc. are certainly no Reek. The safeties will probably be able to give a lot more help on Kelce than they have been able to. I think it'll be a mix. However, Kelce and Andrews are far, far ahead of the rest of the pack.

I'm not sure how I feel about Pitts for this season, yet. I think he's pretty easily the TE3 (I'm low on Kittle), especially with the Gronk retirement, but I'm not sure if that makes him worth late 3rd/early 4th capital. That's probably close to drafting him at his ceiling unless you think he can do like a 130 target, 90 reception, 1,200 yard, 10 TD season. I guess it's within the realm, but I'm probably not going to gamble on it with Mariota/Ridder at the helm. I doubt I'll have much Pitts in redraft this season. But I would certainly take the over on 1 TD for the year.

Speaking of London, I think him and Burks are going to be steals at their final ADP in redrafts. Even if they aren't super efficient, the volume will be there.

Go for it, PI! If not, I'm happy to start it.

Haha my bad early morning reading fail.


Basically my same thoughts on the situation and I have mainly been avoiding the Cheifs WR's as I have a feeling no one will be the dominant WR threat.

If JuJu or MVS do emerge as the WR1 all my best balls may be ****ed cause I'm completely avoiding them at there ADP. Got a decent bit of Moore and of course Justyn Ross just for the hope

Burks appears to be this years Chase. Not in talent but in that I keep seeing stupid posts similar to the Chase can't catch NFL balls. Like today there was an article shared on reddit saying he was the WR3 to start the season behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine which is just not going to happen.

Lmao. Bobby Trees may not be able to start the season and then also behind NWI? What!? That guy was terrible last year, even with AJB injured.

I'll happily take Burks where I think his ADP will be.

The Titans didn't trade AJB for him just to have him not get run.

Anyone interested in starting a dynasty league in the $250-500 range? or already planning a startup that's in need of members?

Looking for some thoughts on the best ball drafts mainly with patching the QB position and taking 4 or 5 very late QB's over taking a top QB and a back up.

Basically most drafts I've been taking Jackson, Hurts or Murray between the 5th-7th rounds but I've been thinking recently on doing the next bunch of them by ignoring the QB position until at least after round 10 and just going with Ryan,Winston, Wilson and then a Mariota or Trubisky in the last rounds.

Is this a decent strat or is a it pretty poor thinking? I will say I think my teams just look better with the stud QB in them

I don't think there's anything wrong with dropping past the elite QB's, but I'd rather grab someone in the QB8-QB15 range rather than completely punting the position

We are live y'all! 2022 thread

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post57725039