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Originally Posted by J.E.C
Wow I'm the complete opposite as I feel Pitts is the trap in the 3rd/4th but Andrews has been my favorite target if I can get him mid to late 2nd. I mean Andrews had 154 targets and Brown had 145 even if they do throw it 25% less I can't see him having less than 125 targets at worst.
Whereas with Pitts I don't really see why it's felt he should improve so much on his 110 targets last year and he only had one TD (Andrews has had 7+ last 3 years). I know it's not the consensus but I still think we shall see London outscore Pitts this year and he's been my favorite pick in the 8th/9th.
I think you and I agree haha. I was saying before Hollywood was traded, I thought Andrews was a trap if people were simply looking at his 2021 production and expecting the same. With Hollywood gone, I don't know who I'd rather have as my TE1 between him and Kelce.
Balt had 611 passing attempts last year. That puts Andrews at a 25% target share. Over the last 3 seasons, Lamar has averaged 27.5 attempts/gm which is 470 on the season. I actually think Andrews's target share is probably more like 30% with Hollywood gone which would put his projection at around 140 targets.
I haven't decided if Reek's departure helps or hurts Kelce. You can argue that it helps Kelce by saying that he's by far the more reliable receiving weapon for Pat and Pat might target him even more. You can say it hurts him because the defense can focus on him more by not being pulled down the field or to one side of the field with Reek. JuJu, Skyy, MVS, etc. are certainly no Reek. The safeties will probably be able to give a lot more help on Kelce than they have been able to. I think it'll be a mix. However, Kelce and Andrews are far, far ahead of the rest of the pack.
I'm not sure how I feel about Pitts for this season, yet. I think he's pretty easily the TE3 (I'm low on Kittle), especially with the Gronk retirement, but I'm not sure if that makes him worth late 3rd/early 4th capital. That's probably close to drafting him at his ceiling unless you think he can do like a 130 target, 90 reception, 1,200 yard, 10 TD season. I guess it's within the realm, but I'm probably not going to gamble on it with Mariota/Ridder at the helm. I doubt I'll have much Pitts in redraft this season. But I would certainly take the over on 1 TD for the year.
Speaking of London, I think him and Burks are going to be steals at their final ADP in redrafts. Even if they aren't super efficient, the volume will be there.