Some solid reads.

1. Dalvin is certainly in the mix. I like him a lot, but I won't touch him if it looks like he won't play.

2. Valid. Neither do I.

3. I don't like Ekeler without Rivers. Tyrod is not going to get the ball to him like Rivers did. He's a decent runner, but he's the most effective when he is able to catch the ball in space.

4. Julio's TD production is concerning, but he's very consistent and not a bad pick in the second round in PPR. His floor is nice. He only had 2 single digit scoring games last year, and those were 9.2 and 7.2 points.

5. There's a chance if Thielen stays healthy. I think the loss of Diggs actually helps him. He should get even more targets. Reek is my pick for top WR. While his catch volume isn't as high as guys like MT, Julio, etc., he's incredibly explosive and can easily go 6 for 180 and 2 TDs.

6. I think the Steelers believe in Conner's talent. I don't think they necessarily believe in his body. I don't believe in his body. He has struggled with injuries in the full-time role. But when he's on the field, there is no denying the production. He's a high risk, high reward pick, because if he's out there he will get points. Like Wolves, I don't believe any of the backs on the roster are a threat.

7. Probably staying away from the Rams this year, but you could be right.

8. Fair enough, but I think his ADP has that built in. He easily has top 10 potential. But he isn't someone who I'm desperate to have.

9. Agreed. But it's very possible both QBs are trainwrecks.

10. Fuller won't stay healthy. In his 4 seasons he's played 14, 10, 7, and 11 games. On the other hand, Cooks has only missed 2 games in the last 5 seasons. I think Cooks is flying under the radar. I'm not sure why people are down on him, but he did have 4 straight years of over 1,000 yards receiving, including his best year ever just two years ago in his first season with the Rams. I think he will be really good value at his ADP.

11. I actually think if he's on the field, he will have a nice season. He should be fresh. He was Tom's guy in NE where Tom had a ton of familiarity and now Tom is in a new place with limited off season work and limited camps, he will be leaning on Gronk. Plus, not like Howard or Brate have done anything to secure the TE job. The main issue with Gronk is that volume may be lacking at times with the other TEs plus Evans and Godwin. But I think Gronk will have some good games.

12. Eh, I don't like Burrow, especially with the limited rookie work he will get. Why do you think they'll be elite?

In anyone running the leagues that we have had for the last few years? I know last year there were various snake, auction, 2qbs in the $200-500 range.

3. I don't like Ekeler without Rivers. Tyrod is not going to get the ball to him like Rivers did. He's a decent runner, but he's the most effective when he is able to catch the ball in space.

I think the Chargers offense going to flow through Ekeler. Agree Tyrod dumpoff not as effective as Rivers, but they are going to be behind and hes going to have to dump off A LOT. Plus, i think Tyrod o/u is 6-8 games before they move on

4. Julio's TD production is concerning, but he's very consistent and not a bad pick in the second round in PPR. His floor is nice. He only had 2 single digit scoring games last year, and those were 9.2 and 7.2 points.

He's a beast no doubt. But having watched many falcons games over last 2 seasons, i dont think a TD regression up to mean is likely given how they use him around goal line.

6. I think the Steelers believe in Conner's talent. I don't think they necessarily believe in his body. I don't believe in his body. He has struggled with injuries in the full-time role. But when he's on the field, there is no denying the production. He's a high risk, high reward pick, because if he's out there he will get points. Like Wolves, I don't believe any of the backs on the roster are a threat.

Will have to rethink this a bit given your/wolves response

11. I actually think if he's on the field, he will have a nice season. He should be fresh. He was Tom's guy in NE where Tom had a ton of familiarity and now Tom is in a new place with limited off season work and limited camps, he will be leaning on Gronk. Plus, not like Howard or Brate have done anything to secure the TE job. The main issue with Gronk is that volume may be lacking at times with the other TEs plus Evans and Godwin. But I think Gronk will have some good games.

His greatest value last few years was as a run blocking TE. Thats where Patriots missed him most. Will he make a few plays, yes. I feel strongly he underperforms where he is being drafted.

12. Eh, I don't like Burrow, especially with the limited rookie work he will get. Why do you think they'll be elite?

Eh, I'm not sure legit offense means elite Burrow. I do think his mobility will add a major dimension to their offense. Green/Boyd/Ross is very solid receiving corps to work with and their defense going to have them behind in a lot of games.

Thanks for taking the time to respond

I agree with wolves and tarheels on Conner. I went out and got him after seeing Tomlin say he likes to use a workhorse back and wants it to be Conner. I think it’s just a matter of him staying healthy, and as a guy who has overcome a lot in life and is extremely motivated, I’m optimistic he can do so in this make-or-break season for him.

I’m in on Conner as well for many of the reasons stated. I’m mostly drafting WRs in rounds 3 and 4 this year, but Conner is one of the few RBs I’d draft round 3.

PPR 1 QB league with 3 keepers that you can keep for 3 years. All these players would be either 1st time kept except Conner would be 2nd (had Conner, Antonio Brown, and Diggs as keepers last year and traded Diggs for Hilton near end of season).

Leaning toward:
Ekeler
Conner
Golladay

Other options:
Singletary
TY Hilton
Hunter Henry
Evan Engram
Darrell Henderson

Seems pretty straightforward and easy, yes? ESPN has both Hilton and Singletary projected for more points than Conner.

yep; your leans are no brainers imo.

Thx for the answer ww, the twitter thread on him was interesting.


Diontae currently = WR41 / $2

Seems insanely undervalued right now, have to see if there is any pre-season media hype.

3. Ekeler should still have a nice season, but I'm just not sure he's worth the 2nd to 3rd round grade he is receiving. The Chargers will certainly try to flow the offense through him. I'm just iffy on trusting him with the big change in QB. Even if Tyrod is done after 6-8, it's not like Herbert gives me anymore confidence.

You say that Tyrod will have to dump off a lot, but my main concern is that Tyrod will elect to run instead of dumping off. In his 3 seasons as a full-time starter, he ran 104 times, 95 times, and 84 times, for an overall average of 6.5 rushers per game. Rivers has averaged 1.6 rushes per game for his career.

I could be wrong, but I don't want any shares of Ekeler at his ADP.

4. Julio's TD production is what it is. I was more so arguing that even without the TDs, he's still worth his end of 1st/beginning of 2nd round grade due to the catch and yardage production alone. 6-8 TDs seems to be the expectation.

6. I think Conner is the best back on the roster by quite a bit. But again, I just don't trust his injury history. I didn't like him as a 1st/2nd round grade last year, but I might reconsider taking a risk in the 3rd-5th round. He's not someone I'm targeting, but I don't blame anyone for taking the chance in the hope that he stays healthy. If he plays all 16 games, he has top 5 potential.

11. Fair enough. I'm planning to target a Doyle/Jarwin combo at the end of the draft in my leagues, expecting to get great value from at least 1 of them ending up in the top 10. Hurst should also be nice value. Fantasy Pros has Gronk as the 12th ranked TE, and I think that's fair. Of course, you'll have some fanboys reach for him, but I think his ADP will reflect his expectation with a decent chance he outperforms that ADP. Ebron and Olsen also have sneaky potential with where they are expected to be drafted.

12. I got ya. I don't believe in Green to stay on the field. I like Boyd. I like Ross. I like Mixon. But I'm not sure I like them enough, especially with Burrow out there. You're right, though, that defense is going to cause them to have to fire it.

This tape is so pure. I enjoyed watching.

Agreed. The only thing I can say about ESPN projections is that they're projected to be wrong haha.

I keep Singletary over Ekeler myself. Everybody is afraid of Zach Moss but Singletary was elite last year second half of the season. He carried the Bills to the playoffs. I'm thinking 70/30 split with Singletary getting all the 3rd down work. Moss might end up with more GL carries but it will be a mistake imo. Singletary is really good inside the tackles. He's just so slippery.

Love his tape last year. I see no reason for the Bills to take him off the field.


* Side note

Waldman has Singletary on his do not draft list. He thinks Moss is going to push Singletary off the field. Not going to lie that has me shook a little bit. Last guy I strongly disagreed with him on was Courtland Sutton. I loved Sutton he didn't. Maybe he's right this time. Not sure but I'm still buying Singletary.

Even if you love Singletary keeping him over Ekeler is pretty insane.

Not super high on Ekeler. It's actually not really even close for me between him and Singletary. I have Conner ahead of Ekeler too.

Why does everyone like Ekeler this year? Maybe I'm missing something.

He finished as RB6 on avg. last year, and no more Gordon or real competition for usage.

Yeah, it is like this:

Positives:
-Extremely efficient and productive in 2019
-Given contract by team
-No Melvin Gordon

Negatives:
-Small sample as lead back
-Tyrod Taylor replaces Rivers

Neutral:
-Drafted an RB in round 4

And of course, this:

Ekeler averaged 2.22 fantasy points per target last season, which not only led the league but was the best by any RB since 2009. He had 1550 scrimmage yards in 2019, with 993 of them coming on receptions. He averaged 10.8 yards per reception, the third straight year he has averaged over 10 yards per reception...a large majority of the yardage was self created after the catch. Eight of his 11 touchdowns last season came in the receiving game. He's going to get his in the passing game...if he gets a bigger share of Melvin's carries on top, (esp goal line carries), he can outperform last year

Even if you hate Ekeler for some reason (I have him @ RB11) and love Singletary, just from a draft capital standpoint you still have to keep Ekeler.

Ekeler is a 2nd rounder in ppr, and will be a first rounder in a league with 3 keepers. Singletary goes 5/6th round usually. You can easily trade Ekeler for Singletary+ a reasonable piece, or just target Singletary in the draft for a much cheaper price.

I haven't looked at rosters yet on who is likely to be available, but CEH is likely the only person available after we keep 36 players that will be drafted ahead of Ekeler.

Last year I decided 'wrong' between keeping Golladay and Antonio Brown, but still got Golladay at the end of the first/fourth round.

That's a good point but I have Ekeler outside of the top 25 RBs. Singletary is in my top 15 RB.

I think where all you guys and I differ is Ekeler's situation. They lost Rivers and they are now starting Tyrod Taylor. The offensive pie will get smaller. I think some of you think he's going to get a bigger part of the split with the rookie RB coming in and that will offset the less effective offense. I don't see that. It's going to be 50/50 again. Anthony Lynn has said as much. Situation has been huge for Ekeler to this point.......he's not really special. The situation has changed adjust accordingly.

He's in a 50/50 split on a bad offense now. Yuck.

I think Ekeler is the epitome of the type of player who is QB dependent. And I say that with plenty of respect towards Rivers. IMO, the loss of Rivers is a major concern, especially at Ekeler's ADP.

What do you guys think about offering Julio for McLaurin and Diontae Johnson in half-PPR dynasty? I'm in win-now mode, but I could also put out an elite starting lineup without Julio (or McLaurin/Johnson) so I can afford to think about the future. Other team is also in win-now mode and would have a WR corps of Adams, Julio and Evans if he took the deal.

I would but I'm higher on Diontae than most anyone else. The one thing you have to worry about with Diontae Johnson is who's going to be his QB in 2-3 years when Big Ben retires. Pittsburgh has nothing behind him. I don't worry much about 3 years in advance in dynasty though.